The Shrinking Giant and the Entropic Inheritor

Indigenous Strategy and Experimental Microeconomics in the Collapse of Aid‑Dependent Autocracies

Temesgen Muleta‑Erena Economist, Sovereign Publisher, Epistemic Steward TC Press, London


Abstract

This essay develops a diagnostic framework for understanding the collapse of aid‑dependent autocracies through the lens of indigenous strategy, experimental microeconomics, and game theory. It draws on the reformist signals and institutional warnings articulated by the Ethiopian literary statesman Be’alu Girma, whose works — as modelled in Temesgen Muleta‑Erena’s Scrolls on Experimental Microeconomics and the Pen‑State Paradox — provide a game‑theoretic interpretation of authoritarian short‑termism and institutional decay. The analysis contrasts the short‑term strategic behaviour of autocrats like Nicolás Maduro, Saddam Hussein, and Muammar Gaddafi with the long‑term resistance strategies of citizens, activists, and international actors. The essay argues that misdiagnoses of collapse — such as romanticising Libya under Gaddafi — arise from failures to implement reform after the fall of entropy‑producing regimes. It further clarifies that the international community is not inherently selective; rather, dictators exploit rival superpowers, and global consensus on pursuing all autocrats has not yet been reached. However, when tyrants cross international red lines — such as acquiring deadly weapons, sponsoring terrorism, or engaging in transnational criminality — intervention becomes unavoidable. Indigenous Oromo wisdom offers a sovereign strategy of grasping illusion, inscribing collapse, and engineering reform to prevent the return of inherited entropy.

Keywords: Indigenous strategy; experimental microeconomics; entropy; aid‑dependent autocracies; game theory; Oromo proverbs; institutional collapse; sovereign modelling.

Primary Discipline:

Political Economy

Secondary Disciplines:

Document Type:  Modular Essay

 

I. Introduction: The Illusion of Scale

Before collapse, dictators appear vast. They dominate media, militarize aid, and choreograph loyalty. Yet when the moment of reckoning arrives, they shrink — not just in power, but in stature. The Oromo proverb captures this paradox with sovereign clarity:

“Kan qaban qabaa hin guunne, gadhiisan bakkee gutti.” What fits in the palm may flood the field when released.

This essay explores how such regimes, though appearing expansive, are structurally brittle. Their collapse is predictable to those who understand indigenous logic and the microeconomic signals embedded in daily life.

II. The Dictator’s Game: Entropy as Strategy

Aid‑dependent autocrats operate within a narrow strategic horizon. Their survival depends on:

This behaviour aligns with game‑theoretic models of repeated short‑term play, where the regime discounts future payoffs in favour of immediate control. Reform is perceived not as a solution, but as a threat.

Be’alu Girma’s institutional warnings — encoded in the Pen‑State paradox — dramatize this logic: the regime plays for today, while the people, boxed and watched, play for tomorrow.

III. Experimental Microeconomics of Resistance

While the regime plays short‑term games, the people engage in experimental microeconomics:

These are not merely survival tactics — they are long‑term strategic rehearsals for post‑collapse reconstruction. They represent distributed rationality, where individuals optimize under constraint while collectively eroding the regime’s entropy.


 

 

IV. Collapse and the Return of the Wild

The collapse of the Dergue, the fall of Gaddafi, the capture of Saddam Hussein, and the recent symbolic containment of Nicolás Maduro all follow a pattern:

Maduro, once perceived as a regional strongman, was recently captured by U.S. forces in a high‑risk operation involving over 150 aircraft and elite troops. His fall, like that of Saddam Hussein — found hiding in a dirt hole with a chocolate bar — reveals the theatrical fragility of autocratic power.

A recurring misdiagnosis in public discourse is the claim that “Libya was a paradise under Gaddafi.” Such arguments arise not from historical accuracy but from the absence of reform after collapse. When entropy is not resolved, the post‑collapse field becomes chaotic, and nostalgia fills the vacuum. The problem is not the fall of the dictator — it is the failure to engineer the field afterward.

Another common argument is that “the West is selective.” This too is a misreading. Western states do not advise any nation to adopt dictatorship; they expect at least a minimal open society as a foundation for democratic development. The deeper structural issue is that dictators play rival superpowers against one another, creating geopolitical deadlocks. The international community has not yet reached a global consensus to pursue every dictator on earth.

However, there are moments when intervention becomes unavoidable — when tyrants cross international red lines, such as:

At such moments, the global system acts not out of selectivity but out of necessity.

International Signalling and the Limits of Delay

Public reporting shows that U.S. officials issued direct warnings to leaders such as Robert Mugabe and Muammar Gaddafi during periods of escalating crisis. In contrast, during visits to Ethiopia, U.S. leadership adopted a diplomatic tone toward the EPRDF government, publicly emphasizing partnership and regional stability. However, there is no evidence that external actors encouraged repression of domestic protests, nor did they issue warnings against Oromo demonstrators. The subsequent fall of the EPRDF shortly after the removal of Mugabe and Gaddafi underscores a broader structural pattern: external diplomacy may vary in tone, but it does not halt the internal entropy of regimes whose strategic horizon has collapsed. Autocrats often attempt to delay their decline by playing rival superpowers against one another, but such manoeuvres only postpone the inevitable.

Yet collapse alone is insufficient. Without reform, the field remains vulnerable. As the Oromo proverb warns, what once fit in the palm may again flood the field. The entropy is inherited, not resolved. New actors emerge, often mimicking the tyrants of the 19th and 20th centuries — entropic inheritors who boost disorder as a strategy of rule.

V. The Indigenous Strategy: Grasp, Inscribe, Reform

The second Oromo proverb completes the diagnostic:

“Gooftaan koo gooftaa qaba jette hojjettuuni.” The servant said: my master has a master.

This is the moment of rupture — when the people realize that even the dictator is not sovereign. It is a psychological and strategic turning point.

The indigenous strategy teaches:

VI. Conclusion: The Verdict of Game Theory

Game theory affirms what indigenous wisdom has long known: Without reform, short‑term strategies dominate. And without structural transformation, collapse is not liberation — it is prelude.

The sovereign task, then, is not merely to celebrate the fall of the dictator, but to engineer the field — to inscribe reform, archive entropy, and activate the republic.

References

Primary Analytical Works by Temesgen Muleta‑Erena

Muleta‑Erena, T. (2024). The Secret Economist: What Daily Life Reveals About Microeconomics Theory. TC Press, London.

Muleta‑Erena, T. (2025). Experimental Microeconomics from Daily Life: Volume 1 – Essays on Entropy, Reform, and Institutional Modelling. TC Press, London.

Muleta‑Erena, T. (2025). Experimental Microeconomics from Daily Life: Volume 2 – Essays on Sovereign Strategy, Collapse Dynamics, and Indigenous Modelling. TC Press, London.

Muleta‑Erena, T. (2025). Institutional Entropy and the Thermodynamics of Governance: A Framework for Diagnosing Disorder and Engineering Efficiency. TC Press, London.

Muleta‑Erena, T. (2025). Resilience Under Constraint: Modelling Strategic Survival in Oliver Twist Through Experimental Microeconomics and Game Theory. In Beyond the Passive Habitation of Planets. TC Press, London.

Muleta‑Erena, T. (2025). The Entropic Illusion: Modelling Growth Distortion in Aid‑Dependent Southern Economies. In Beyond the Passive Habitation of Planets. TC Press, London.

Raw Data / Literary Laboratories

Girma, B. (1983). Oromay. Addis Ababa: Kuraz Publishing. Dickens, C. (1838). Oliver Twist. Shakespeare, W. (1603). Othello.

Media Sources

“Inside Operation Absolute Resolve: How US Forces Captured Venezuela’s Maduro.” MSN News, Jan 3, 2026. “What We Know About the US Strike on Venezuela, Maduro’s Capture.” MSN News, Jan 3, 2026. CNN Archives. (2003). “Saddam Hussein Captured in Underground Hideout.”

 

 

Temesgen Muleta‑Erena is a sovereign economist and epistemic steward whose work activates the architecture of knowledge across republics, archives, and federated networks. As founder of TC Press (The Codex Press), he composes ceremonial scrolls, modular essays, and diagnostic frameworks that map institutional entropy, indigenous strategy, and the economics of planetary coordination.

His writings are preserved in global repositories — from the British Library to Cambridge, Oxford, Berkeley, and UNAM — and circulate through platforms such as Kobo Plus, OverDrive, Smashwords, and Woolaa.com. His mission is to inscribe legacy, cultivate epistemic sovereignty, and engineer coordinated futures through sovereign publishing.

 


PRESS RELEASE

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE  

London — 1 January 2026

TC Press /The Codex Press Announces the Release of Beyond Labour: How Knowledge Becomes the New Engine of Value

A 175‑page economic scroll redefining value creation for the post‑scarcity age  https://amzn.eu/d/fGuBDiH

TC Press / Codex Press, London, proudly announces the publication of Beyond Labour: How Knowledge Becomes the New Engine of Value, the eleventh volume by economist and sovereign publisher Temesgen Muleta‑Erena. Released simultaneously in Kindle, paperback, and hardcover editions, this 175‑page work inaugurates a new paradigm for understanding value, coordination, and civilizational design.

Beyond Labour argues that the engines of value in the 21st century are no longer labour, scarcity, or extraction, but knowledge, coordination, legacy, and ceremony. Through a series of modular chapters, Muleta‑Erena models a republic where epistemic capital becomes infinitely generative, coordination emerges as the central economic constraint, and legacy yields the most enduring returns.

Drawing from behavioural economics, indigenous strategy, thermodynamic governance, and systems design, the scroll reframes economics as a lineage‑building discipline. It offers not only theory but ceremonial infrastructure—rituals, scrolls, and sovereign institutions designed for a world beyond toil.

“This work is inscribed for stewards, system designers, and republic builders,” Muleta‑Erena writes. “It is not a conclusion. It is a transmission. The republic begins wherever knowledge is sovereign and legacy is inscribed.”

About the Author

Temesgen Muleta‑Erena is a sovereign publisher, modular essayist, and ceremonial infrastructure theorist. He holds a PhD in Economics from the University of West London and an MA from the University of East Anglia. His work integrates behavioural economics, indigenous strategy, and epistemic modelling to engineer legacy‑driven publishing systems.

He is the author of ten prior volumes, including The Time‑Tested Republic, Beyond the Sun, Macroeconomics Beyond GDP, Institutional Entropy, Experimental Microeconomics from Daily Life (Volumes I & II), Game Theory in Indigenous Strategy, The Secret Economist, Scrolls on Experimental Microeconomics and the Pen‑State Paradox, and The Game of Strategic Legacy.

Beyond Labour is his eleventh scroll and marks the ceremonial opening of his 2026 publishing cycle.

Publication Details

https://amzn.eu/d/fGuBDiH