Abstract: During World War II, France conscripted tens of thousands of young men from Senegal and other West African colonies, deploying many to Europe. Using novel survey data from Senegal and a complementary survey among West Africans in Germany, supplemented by Afrobarometer data, I study whether exposure to ancestral military service abroad continues to affect migration intentions, plans, and behaviour today. Singling out involuntarily enlisted conscripts and exploiting exogenous variation in local recruitment intensity based on the geocoded birthplaces of Senegalese soldiers who died in World War II, I show that descendants of conscripted soldiers exhibit signicantly higher emigration aspirations, plans, and behaviour. Intergenerational transfer entails grandfathers returning to their communities and grandchildren being old enough to have interacted with them. Moreover, recruitment does not appear to affect aspirations through (human) capital advantages, but through networks and civic engagement. The results highlight that colonial military recruitment|an early, large-scale episode of enforced transcontinental migration|left a durable imprint on contemporary migration patterns.
Registration: Link
Abstract: Do immigrants from higher-income countries improve local public finances? Many local and national governments seek to attract them, expecting that increased local consumption will stimulate the economy and broaden the tax base, yet their fiscal impact remains unclear. Using data for Spanish municipalities and a shift share instrument based on preexisting immigrant networks, I find that a one percentage point increase in the local population share of immigrants from higher-income countries reduces per capita revenue and expenditure by about 1.6%. This decline reflects population growth from both immigrants and natives, with no change in total revenue or expenditure. Evidence indicates that such immigration is associated with more seasonal residents and a reallocation of employment toward hospitality and services, which lowers average worker income. These mechanisms explain why immigration from higher-income countries does not improve local public finances despite expanding the resident population.
Registration: Link
Abstract: I study how barriers to labor market integration shape immigrant outcomes and the aggregate economy. Using Canadian matched employer–employee data, I find that new immigrants earn substantially less than comparable natives, sort into lowerproductivity firms, have higher job turnover, search longer when unemployed, and cluster in firms with co-ethnic incumbents—patterns that dissipate with time in the host labor market. Guided by these facts, I develop and estimate a search model with referral networks, sorting, and assimilation. Half of the gap in firm sorting is driven by labor market barriers and lower quality networks rather than differences in human capital, suggesting immigrants are substantially misallocated. Eliminating these barriers would raise immigrant output by 10% and total output by 1.5% without harming native workers. Feasible integration programs deliver smaller but meaningful output gains. The counterfactuals highlight that integration programs should target unemployed low-skill immigrants.
Registration: Link
Abstract: This paper evaluates the impact of regularisation programs on immigration flows using a newly collected dataset and panel-data techniques within gravity models. The study makes two key contributions. First, it introduces a comprehensive dataset detailing regularisation policies in OECD countries, covering programs implemented between 1944 and 2023. This dataset includes information on the timing, targeted nationalities, and key policy characteristics. Second, it estimates the effect of regularisation using a gravity model of bilateral migration. It applies a Pseudo Poisson Maximum Likelihood estimator to an unbalanced panel of 193 origin countries and 32 OECD destination countries over 28 years. We also employ a staggered difference-in-differences strategy, which is heterogeneity-robust in the effects across cohorts. The main results show that regularisation programs act as a pull factor for migration, driven by higher-income destinations and origins with extended pre-existing networks. The impact is sizeable following the first regularisation, leading to a 18.7 percent increase in the immigration rates. A novelty of the findings is that the requirement of month is a significant deterrent capable of fully mitigating the pull effect. Furthermore, no significant effects were found for subsequent regularisation programs targeting previously treated country pairs.
Registration: Link
Abstract: The increasing globalization of higher education has sparked debates about the impact of international student presence on natives. This paper provides the first evidence on the impact of exposure to international students on the long-term outcomes of native students. I combine unique survey and administrative data from the Netherlands covering one million students across three decades. My identification strategy relies on idiosyncratic variation in the share of international students within university programs over time. I find that exposure to international students leads native students to (i) form more social ties with non-natives, (ii) hold more positive attitudes towards migration and learning about other cultures, and (iii) seek opportunities abroad. Notably, I find precisely estimated zero effects on employment, income, entrepreneurship, and the share of international co-workers up to 25 years after university entry. These findings suggest that exposure to international students makes natives more culturally open and internationally oriented, without compromising their local economic success.
Registration: Link
Abstract: This paper examines how highly visible irregular migration influences immigration attitudes. Using high-frequency data on small boat crossings from 2018 to 2024 linked to British Election Study panel data, we exploit variation in survey timing to identify short-term effects. Recent small boat arrivals reduce support for immigration, including via legal routes, especially among right-leaning media consumers. Left-leaning media can offset these effects, but only among respondents with low baseline concern. Perceived increases in immigration reinforce these patterns, consistent with confirmation bias. Small but salient events can disproportionately shape public sentiment through media framing and prior beliefs, helping explain recent policy tightening even toward regular migration.
Registration: Link
If you want to receive information on the webinars, you can subscribe to our mailing list via this form.