SULTAN MEHMOOD
I am a professor of Economics (tenure-track) at the New Economic School in Moscow. I received my PhD in Economics from France in October 2019. Previously, I studied in the Netherlands and Pakistan.
Research Fields: Development Economics, Political Economy, Law and Economics.
Research Interests
My research studies the forces that shape the political and economic development of societies. I use natural and field experiments to inform the design of institutions to build state capacity, improve policies and establish rule of law in societies.
Contact Details:
Email: smehmood@nes.ru
Curriculum Vitae: Download (PDF)
Twitter: @mrsultan713
Webpage: http://www.sultanmehmood.info/ (Faculty Page)
Talks in 2022: UCSD Political Economy Lunch Seminar, Harvard University Psychology Seminar, Boston University Development Seminar, MIT Sloan Seminar, Dartmouth Quantitative Social Science Seminar, Brown Growth Lab Seminar, Northwestern Political Economy Seminar, UK Political Economy Seminar.
Publications:
Mehmood, S. 2022. "The impact of Presidential appointment of judges: Montesquieu or the Federalists?" American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 14(4): 411–445.
Mehmood, S. and Seror, A. 2023. "Religious Leaders and Rule of Law" Journal of Development Economics, 160(1): 1–18.
Mehmood, S, Seror, A., and Chen, D.,2023. "Ramadan Fasting Increases Leniency in Judges from Pakistan and India" Nature Human Behavior: 1-7. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-023-01547-3
Research Papers
The impact of Presidential appointment of judges: Montesquieu or the Federalists? (IOEA Best Paper Award) - Published in the American Economic Journal: Applied Economics
Summary in Urdu (اُردُو) (PDF)
Citation
Mehmood, Sultan. 2022. "The impact of Presidential appointment of judges: Montesquieu or the Federalists?" American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 14(4): 411–445.
Religious Leaders and Rule of Law (with A. Seror) - Published in Journal of Development Economics
Summary in Urdu (اُردُو) (PDF)
Citation
Mehmood, Sultan and Seror, Avner. 2023. "Religious Leaders and Rule of Law" Journal of Development Economics, 160(1): 1–18.
Ramadan Fasting Increases Leniency in Judges from Pakistan and India (with A. Seror and D. Chen) - Published in Nature Human Behavior
News Coverage (Geo News, Phys.Org, The News, Le Matin, The Times)
Citation
Mehmood, S, Seror, A., and Chen, D. 2023. "Ramadan Fasting Increases Leniency in Judges from Pakistan and India" Nature Human Behavior, pp.1-7.
Judicial Capture (with B. Ali) - Revise & Resubmit at The Economic Journal
Transmitting Rights (with S. Naseer and D. Chen) - Reject & Resubmit at Journal of Political Economy: Microeconomics
VoxDev Policy Column
The Ripple Effect of AI Training on Policymakers and Citizens: Unintended Consequences in a Developing Nation (with S. Naseer and D. Chen) - AEA RCT Registry - Submitted
Role Models Matter for Covid Vaccinations and Conditional Cash Transfers Do Not (with S. Naseer and D. Chen) - AEA RCT Registry - Submitted
Training Effective Altruism (with D. Chen and S. Naseer) - AEA RCT Registry - Submitted
Contract Enforcement in a Stateless Economy (with D. Chen) - AEA RCT Registry - Submitted
Attitudes as Assets (with A. Seror, D. Chen and S. Naseer)
Why are Rights Revolutions Rare? (with S. Naseer and D. Chen) - AEA RCT Registry
Judicial Independence and Development: Evidence from Pakistan
Training Policymakers in Econometrics: Evidence from Two Experiments (with S. Naseer and D. Chen) - AEA RCT Registry
Reform Multiplier and Economic Development: Evidence from Pakistan (with B. Ali)
Social Inequality and the Dynamics of Political and Ethnolinguistic Divides in Pakistan, 1970-2018 (with T. Piketty and A. Gethin) - Published in Harvard University Press
RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
THE STRIKE OF THE RIGHTEOUS: THE IMPACT OF HATE LITERATURE ON RADICALIZATION (with S. Asad) - Preregistered Trial at AEA RCT Registry - Download (PDF)
ELITE PREFERENCES (with R. Fisman and S. Kariv)
MENTAL HEALTH, TEACHER STRESS AND STUDENT ACHIEVEMENT (with S. Naseer) - Preregistered Trial at AEA RCT Registry
MISINFORMATION AMONG ELITE POLICYMAKERS (D. Rand & B. Nyhan) - Preregistered Trial at AEA RCT Registry and OSF RCT Registry
ARE JUDGES A JURY OF ONE? EVIDENCE FROM THE ABOLITION OF JURIES IN INDIA (with R. Ahmed)
RESHAPING BELIEFS ABOUT OURSELVES AND OTHERS: EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE FROM CIVIL SERVANTS IN PAKISTAN (with S. Naseer, J. Kaur and D. Chen) - Preregistered Trial at AEA RCT Registry
MAN VERSUS MACHINE: EVIDENCE FROM INTRODUCTION OF AI IN PAKISTANI COURTS (with S. Naseer)
JUDICIAL INDEPENDENCE IN THE SHADOW OF TERRORISM: EVIDENCE FROM PAKISTAN'S ANTI-TERRORISM COURTS
GOVERNMENT ADVERTISEMENTS AND MEDIA SELF-CENSORSHIP: EVIDENCE FROM A REGRESSION DISCONTINUITY DESIGN (with S. Asad)
INSINCERE BELIEF: EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE FROM PAKISTAN (with S. Naseer and D. Chen) - Preregistered Trial at AEA RCT Registry
IDEAS HAVE CONSEQUENCES: IMPACT OF RUSSIAN LITERATURE ON POLITICS
SOCIAL MOVEMENTS AND DICTATORSHIP: EVIDENCE FROM THE LAWYERS' MOVEMENT IN PAKISTAN (Talk at Lahore University of Management Sciences)
Pre-Doctoral Journal Articles and Book Chapters
Terrorism and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Pakistan (Pre-Doctoral Research: Bachelor's Thesis)
Pakistan with highest number of terrorism related deaths of any country over the past decade, the number exceeding the total terrorism related deaths for both the European and North American continents, offers an important setting to study impact of terrorism on the macroeconomy. Our estimates from a sample that covers over 4500 terrorist incidents and consequent 10, 200 deaths [from 1973 to 2010] imply that bouts of terrorist attacks led to both a short-run as well as medium-term adverse impact on key macroeconomic variables. It is estimated that cumulatively terrorism has cost Pakistan around 33.02 % of its real national income over the entire sample period and that terrorism costs Pakistan around 1 % of real GDP per capita growth every year. We find evidence consistent with the models that show that terrorism impacts the economy through a reallocation of resources from relatively more productive public spending to less productive defense spending.
Mehmood, S., 2014. Terrorism and the macroeconomy: Evidence from Pakistan. Defence and Peace Economics, 25(5), pp. 509-534.
The Political Economy of Foreign Aid and Growth: Theory and Evidence (Pre-Doctoral Research: Master's Thesis)
In this paper, we demonstrate that political incentives are key to understanding the effectiveness of foreign aid. We present a theory that formalizes how foreign aid impacts growth, leader turnover and public employment. We show that when political institutions are weak, foreign aid is misallocated. Nevertheless, foreign aid may also increase the dynamic efficiency of public policies, making the overall effect of aid on growth ambiguous. We present evidence consistent with the predictions of the model where foreign aid decreases leader turnover, increases misallocation - by increasing public employment - while it has a positive and significant effect on economic growth. The identification strategy we propose allows us to provide causal evidence for the predictions of the model. Our theory and evidence reconciles two strands of literature that grew apart in the recent decades, one demonstrating the positive effect of foreign aid on growth, the other emphasising the distortionary effects of foreign aid due to patronage, ethnic favoritism and corruption.
Social Inequality and the Dynamics of Political and Ethnolinguistic Divides in Pakistan, 1970-2018 - forthcoming Harvard University Press
This study documents the changing structure of Pakistan’s political cleavages by making use of a unique set of exit polls covering every direct election held in the country between 1970 and 2018. We analyze the evolution of Pakistan's party system, beginning with the initial economic “left-right” opposition between the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and the Muslim League. Regionalist, ethnolinguistic and religious divides have weakened and transformed this party system over the last half a century. The decline of the PPP has come with its transformation from a low-income mass-based party to an ethnic party confined to Sindhi speakers. We also analyze the recent rise of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf and the role played by the political unification of the economic, religious and military elites in its success. Finally, we discuss how the Islamization policies implemented under the military regime of Zia-ul-Haq (1977-1988) has contributed to weaken the development of a pro-redistribution secularist coalition.
In Political Cleavages, Party Systems and Social Inequalities: A study of Electoral Democracies 1948-2019. Edited by T. Piketty. Harvard University Press.
SEMINARS AND CONFERENCES
2022: ASSA 2022, IOEA 2022, University of Chicago's Advances in Field Experiments 2022, UCSD Seminar 2022, TSE Seminar 2022, BU Development Seminar 2022, Northwestern Political Economy Seminar 2022.
2021: PSE Applied Economics Seminar, CEPR Political Economy of Development Workshop, Econometric Society Annual Meeting 2021; SPSA 2021, APSA 2021, MPSA 2021, NBER Fall Development Meeting 2021, Winter Meeting of Econometric Society 2021.
2020: ETH Zurich Law and Economics Seminar, Aix-Marseille University Applied Breakfast, Society for Institutional & Organizational Economics (SIOE), Econometric Society's World Congress, Economic Development and Institutions Annual Conference, Bocconi CLEAN Seminar, EEA Annual Conference, Applied Lunch New Economic School.
2019: Association for the Study of Religion, Economics, and Culture (ASREC), Midwest Political Science Association (MPSA), American Political Science Association (APSA), American Law and Economic Association (ALEA), Society for Institutional & Organizational Economics (SIOE).
2018: Institutional and Organizational Economics Academy (IOEA), American Law and Economic Association (ALEA), Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), Casual Friday Development Seminar (CFDS).
2017: Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), Institutional and Organizational Economics Academy (IOEA), PSE Applied Economics Seminar, DIAL Development Conference.
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
Spring 2019: Statistical Reasoning and Causal Inference at Sciences Po (Masters Level)
Spring 2021: Empirical Political Economics at the New Economic School (Masters Level)
Spring 2022: Introduction to Law and Economics (Bachelors Level)
Spring 2022: Empirical Political Economics at the New Economic School (Masters Level)
PUBLIC TALKS
Lawyers' Movement and Support for Dictatorship in Pakistan 2023 (15 minutes) - Lahore, Pakistan
Judicial Independence and Reforms in Pakistan 2022 (15 minutes) - Karachi, Pakistan
CEPR Political Economy and Development 2021 (30 mins Talk) - London, UK
Economics of Religion Workshop 2021 (15 minutes Talk) - Los Angeles, US
NBER Fall Meeting 2021 (6 Minutes Talk) - Boston, US
Why does Judicial Independence matter? (1 minute) - Oxford, UK