I am a Statistics Ph.D. Student at the University of Wisconsin–Madison working on problems related to extreme value theory and time series, with applications in finance and astronomy. My work focuses on helping decision makers by developing models that are interpretable, highly accurate, and practical for online, real-world settings. Examples include:

• • A model that predicts extreme solar flares using a nonlinear model that features autoregressive information expressed in latent variables (see [6] below)

  • A nonlinear AR model that quantifies “bad days” in stock markets using lagged exogenous variables, combined using equations determined using PCA at the forecast origin (see [8])

  • A model that accurately predicts extreme values in data streams used in exoplanet detection, despite frequent missing values (see [10])

I also work for the Statistical Consulting Group at UW–Madison, where I assist clients from fields such as Botany, Soil Science, Entomology, Bacteriology, Geography, and Dairy Science in all aspects of the research process, including experimental design, power analysis, data analysis, manuscript preparation, and responding to reviewer comments in the peer review process (see [1], [2], [3], [4], [7], and [9]).

CV | ORCiD | Google Scholar | LinkedIn | GitHub

Email: stmoen [at] wisc [dot] edu

• Ph.D. Statistics (University of Wisconsin–Madison, Expected 2026)

  • Advisor: Dr. Zhengjun Zhang

• M.A. Mathematics (University of Wisconsin–Madison, 2023)

• M.S. Statistics (The University of Chicago, 2020)

  • Advisor: Dr. Wei Biao Wu

• B.A. Statistics, Mathematical Economic Analysis (Rice University, 2014)

• CFA® charterholder, CFA Institute (Issued August 2022)

Peer-Reviewed Publications

• [5] Moen, B., & Moen, S. (2025). Changing crime in Manitoba: Its impact on the Provincial Court. The Manitoba Law Journal. Advance online publication. https://themanitobalawjournal.com/wp-content/uploads/articles/MLJ_48%20(Pre-print).6/486-changing-crime.pdf

• [4] Webster, H., Vang, A., Frizzarini, W., Cunha, T., Fricke, H., Moen, S., League, L., Lewandowski, L., & Hernandez, L. (2025). Comparing the efficacy of serotonin and EGTA on postpartum hypocalcemia.  Journal of Dairy Science. https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.2024-25338

• [3] Cate, A.*, Moen, S.*, & Chen, K.* (2025). Bridging digital divides in Wisconsin: an examination of policy efforts and effectiveness over the past five years. Information, Communication & Society, 28(12), 2191–2210. https://doi.org/10.1080/1369118X.2024.2420038

*Equal contribution.

• [2] Hershberger, S., Shaw, B., Moen, S., Johnson, T., & Gorby, T. (2024). Promoting small-scale maple syrup production on Facebook: A field experiment testing emphasis message frames. Journal of Agriculture, Food Systems, and Community Development, 13(4), 199–224. https://doi.org/10.5304/jafscd.2024.134.012

• [1] Zhang, Y., Hartemink, A. E., Vanwalleghem, T., Bonfatti, B. R., & Moen, S. (2024). Climate and land use changes explain variation in the A horizon and soil thickness in the United States. Commun Earth Environ 5, 129. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01299-6

In Review

• [9] Holland, T., Shaw, B., Xenos, M., Moen, S., & Seifert, J. (2025+). Analyzing Trends of YouTube Video Preview Characteristics on Views in Sustainable Agricultural Videos. Manuscript submitted for publication.

• [7] Vazquez-Catoni, A., Moen, S., & Holland, L. (2025+).  Cranberry fungal endophyte presence in cranberry propagative cuttings and young plantings from Central and Northern Wisconsin. Manuscript submitted for publication.

• [6] Moen, S., Wang, J., & Zhang, Z. (2025+). Modeling Autoregressive Conditional Regional Extremes with Applications to Solar Flare Prediction. Under revision at The Annals of Applied Statistics.

In Preparation

• [10] Moen, S.*, Salzer, J. M.*, Cisewski-Kehe, J., & Zhang, Z. (2026+). I-ACRE: An Autoregressive Conditional Extremes Model for Incomplete Panel Data with Applications in Exoplanet Detection. Manuscript in preparation. 

*Equal contribution.

• [8] Moen, S., & Wu, W. B. (2026+). Multivariate CAViaR: An Insightful Approach to Risk Modeling. Manuscript in preparation.

• Moen, S.*, Salzer, J. M.*, Cisewski-Kehe, J., & Zhang, Z. (2026, April 30). I-ACRE: An Autoregressive Conditional Extremes Model for Incomplete Panel Data with Applications in Exoplanet Detection. Refereed presentation accepted for the 2026 Symposium on Data Science & Statistics, Milwaukee, WI, United States.

*Equal contribution.

• Moen, S. (2025, December 4). Four Common Experimental Designs and How to Use Them. Madison, WI, United States. 

• Moen, S., Wang, J., & Zhang, Z. (2025, August 2–7). Modeling Autoregressive Conditional Regional Extremes with Applications to Solar Flare Prediction [Poster presentation]. Joint Statistical Meetings, Nashville, TN, United States.

• Moen, S., Wang, J., & Zhang, Z. (2025, June 21–27). Modeling Autoregressive Conditional Regional Extremes with Applications to Solar Flare Prediction [Conference session]. 14th International Conference on Extreme Value Analysis, Chapel Hill, NC, United States.

• Moen, S., Wang, J., & Zhang, Z. (2025, March 19–20). Modeling Autoregressive Conditional Regional Extremes with Applications to Solar Flare Prediction [Poster presentation]. Data Science Research Bazaar, Madison, WI, United States.

• Moen, S., Wang, J., & Zhang, Z. (2024, November 22). Modeling Autoregressive Conditional Regional Extremes with Applications to Solar Flare Prediction [Poster presentation]. American Statistical Association Wisconsin Chapter Poster Session, Madison, WI, United States.

• Moen, S., & Wu, W. B. (2023, August 5–10). Multivariate CAViaR: An Insightful Approach to Risk Modeling [Conference session]. Joint Statistical Meetings, Toronto, Canada.

• Moen, S. (2023, June 15). A Look Into Two Statistical Consulting Projects [Conference session]. Research Advances in Agricultural Statistics, Madison, WI, United States.

• Liu, Y., Moen, S. (2020, May 29). Simultaneous Changepoint Detection in Temperature Data [Poster presentation]. University Consortium for Geographic Information Science Symposium.

• Jilk, T. (2025, August 20). Catalysts of change: How CDIS partnerships are shaping what’s next. University of Wisconsin–Madison. https://news.wisc.edu/catalysts-of-change-how-cdis-partnerships-are-shaping-whats-next/

  • Highlights the Statistical Consulting Group as an example of a beneficial partnership between the School of Computer, Data, and Information Sciences (CDIS) and the broader UW–Madison community

• WebsEdgeScience. (2025, July 29). A Hub for Interdisciplinary Statistics | University of Wisconsin-Madison [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NnMPYReJrGE

  • A video showcase of cutting-edge research produced by the Department of Statistics at UW–Madison 

  • Featured at the 2025 Joint Statistical Meetings in Nashville, TN

• Department of Statistics. (2025, February 5). ‘On the cutting edge’: Statistical Consulting Group enhances diverse research projects across UW–Madison campus. University of Wisconsin–Madison, Department of Statistics. https://stat.wisc.edu/2025/02/05/on-the-cutting-edge-statistical-consulting-group-enhances-diverse-research-projects-across-uw-madison-campus/

  • Introduces the Statistical Consulting Group and how it benefits the larger campus community

  • Mentions work I did with Ashley Cate and Kaipeng Chen in “Bridging digital divides in Wisconsin: an examination of policy efforts and effectiveness over the past five years” where we quantified the impact of broadband subsidies on subscription rates

• Institute for Diversity Science. (2024, November 26). New Study Highlights Impact of Social Inequalities and Location on Wisconsin’s “Digital Divide”. University of Wisconsin–Madison. https://ids.wisc.edu/2024/11/26/new-study-highlights-impact-of-social-inequalities-and-location-on-wisconsins-digital-divide/

  • Shares the findings in “Bridging digital divides in Wisconsin: an examination of policy efforts and effectiveness over the past five years”, written with Ashley Cate and Kaipeng Chen, showing the challenges of addressing the “digital divide” in Wisconsin via subsidies for broadband

• University of Wisconsin–Madison, Department of Statistics (Madison, WI)

  • STAT 572: Statistical Methods for Bioscience II (Spring 2022, Graduate)

  • STAT 571: Statistical Methods for Bioscience I (Fall 2021, Graduate)

  • STAT 324: Introductory Applied Statistics for Engineers (Spring 2021, Undergraduate)

  • STAT 301: Introduction to Statistical Methods (Fall 2020, Undergraduate)

• Summer Research Fellowship from the Department of Statistics at UW–Madison (2025)

  • Selection was based on a competitive process, which looked at broad department service and a research plan for the summer

• Student Research Grants Competition - Combined Award from the Graduate School at UW–Madison (2023)

  • A highly competitive funding application for students to present their research at a conference

  • Awarded for presenting M.S. Thesis results at the Joint Statistical Meetings in August 2023

• Teaching Mentor from the College of Letters & Science at UW–Madison (2022)

  • An honor granted to TAs from the College of Letters & Science who have achieved outstanding success as students and teachers

  • Led training for new L&S TAs in September 2022 and January 2023, setting new graduate students up for success as teachers by sharing experiences and helpful tips

• John J. Bartko Award from the American Statistical Association (2021)

  • Awarded to help promising young statisticians who are enrolled in or have recently completed a master’s degree in statistics or biostatistics

  • Provided registration and travel support to the Conference on Statistical Practice

• Nominee for Early Excellence in Teaching Award (2021)

  • Nominated by the Statistics Department for a UW–Madison campus-wide teaching award for TAs who have taught for fewer than four semesters

• Outstanding Teaching Award from the Department of Statistics at UW–Madison (2021)

  • Awarded to the top 3 out of 58 Statistics TAs in the 2020-21 Academic Year

• CFA Society Madison Exam Scholarship (2021)

  • Awarded to cover CFA Level III Exam Fees

• Increased Departmental Tuition Scholarship from the University of Chicago (2019)

  • Increased for excellent performance

• Departmental Tuition Scholarship from the University of Chicago (2018)

• Mark of Distinction from Capital One (2018)

  • Awarded for work I did with my colleagues for the 2017 Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review administered by the Fed, where we ensured that the auto loss forecast was reasonable and supportable

• Distinction in Research and Creative Works in Statistics from Rice University (2014)

  • Awarded to graduating seniors for projects that produce a concrete outcome and demonstrate commitment and achievement above and beyond the norm

  • Awarded for senior design work I did to understand the market microstructure of the secondary market for sovereign debt in India

• University of Wisconsin–Madison (Madison, WI)

  • Project Assistant in the Statistical Consulting Group (June 2022–August 2023, August 2024–Present)

• Terman Group (New York, NY)

  • Quantitative Researcher (June 2020–October 2020)

• Capital One (Plano, TX)

  • Senior Business Analyst (July 2014–August 2018)

• YouTube channel with jazz and classical piano recordings