Meta rubs salt in Apple Vision Pro wounds – the Android of AR/VR is here, and I'm super excited

UPDATED: MAY 04, 2024, 2:40 PM 

Things haven't been great for Tim Cook's supposed magnum opus – the Apple Vision Pro. It was meant to be Apple's first "next big thing" in years; a new and exciting hit, a new AR/VR way for the world to use the internet, work, and be entertained…

Well, recently, reliable analyst Ming-Chi Kuo claimed that the demand for Vision Pro headsets is far lower than Apple had anticipated, which forced the company to quietly cut down on its shipments. That's 700–800k unit shipments down to just 400–450k, the leaker suggests. 

This also spells bad news for non-US customers who were waiting to get an Apple Vision Pro, however few they may be – its worldwide release could see delays, if not halts.

Not only that, but those future, cheaper versions of the Apple Vision that we were expecting could be facing the same plot twists – delays, or halts; meaning no new Apple Vision releases for this and next year. At least that's what industry insider Mark Gurman hinted at recently – possibly not a single new Apple Vision until 2026.

Dark times for Apple's ambitions… but there's no one else to blame, Tim

If all of the above is true, and it seems plausible that it is, this could spell a pretty monumental fail in Apple's history; a company that traditionally dominates every new market it enters.

Did it enter the AR/VR market too late? As a hardcore VR enthusiast, I do believe so, but more importantly – it entered it with the most over-engineered and expensively-untouchable headset, for whatever reason.

A headset that costs a ridiculous $3,500, launched only in the US, with very few things to offer in terms of killer apps and never-before-seen AR/VR features.

While its FaceTime app, plus hand and eye tracking are amazing, everything else about the Apple Vision Pro didn't really feel new or fresh to me, nor enough of an upgrade over other headsets to justify that high price. I'd wager a lot of other experienced AR/VR users felt the same way after trying out the Apple Vision Pro.

And while I still believe there's the potential for something truly special there, the question is – is Apple actually competent enough to make some adjustments quickly, and let everyone see it?

Because as much as Apple likes to pretend competition doesn't exist, and the Vision Pro is this "totally new spatial computing device", and definitely not a normal AR/VR headset of which there are many… Well, there are.

While Apple's ambitions for the Vision Pro being its next hit may be crumbling quietly, another large company, who's been dominating the AR/VR space since long before it, has just done something unexpected, and huge…

Meta just copied Google's Android formula, and applied it to AR/VR; a move that could very well be the final nail on the Vision Pro's coffin

You know how Android is everywhere, easily accessible, on billions of phones, budget and flagship, because Google allows different manufacturers to use it, and sell phones with it?

By open-sourcing Android, Google makes it easy for companies like Samsung, Xiaomi, OnePlus, and so on, to mainly just focus on the hardware – the physical phone itself, plus of course its branding, distribution, marketing, etc.

But the software – a monumental task to build from scratch – is pretty much covered.

They can just license Android and adjust it a bit to make it their own, but they don't have to build it from scratch, and more importantly – don't need to build a new app store, and attract app developers, starting from zero. 

Which, as we've learned from Microsoft and the Windows Phone – could very well be impossible nowadays. Android and iOS have likely become forever-monopolies in the smartphone world.

So Android being open-source and free to license is a huge deal. It's great for both Google, as it makes money from Android's included app store and Google services, and it's great for phone makers, as it makes their job easier.

Even startups like Nothing can enter the mobile phone space with relative ease (well, production, distribution and marketing aside), thanks to Android being open-source.

Why are we talking about all that? Because Meta, formerly Facebook, maker of the most popular AR/VR headsets right now – the Meta Quest 2 and Meta Quest 3 – recently announced that it's open-sourcing its Meta Horizon OS (operating system), just like Android!

And fun fact – this Meta Quest OS is actually built on Android, so even that exists thanks to Android being open-source! 

In any case, by open-sourcing and allowing others to license its AR/VR operating system, Meta clearly intends to become what Google is in the phone world – the OS that it controls will soon be powering many different headsets, by many different manufacturers.

Meta Horizon OS – the Android of the AR/VR world? Yes, us virtual reality enthusiasts might be getting an Android vs. iOS situation on our hands

So, not only is Apple likely losing confidence in its ultra-expensive Vision Pro, cutting down on its shipment units and reevaluating its AR/VR future release roadmap, but it suddenly has a new "Android" to worry about, in the face of Meta Horizon OS.

While the iPhone does outsell Android in a few regions, like the US, globally Android is the most used phone operating system, precisely thanks to it being open-source and freely available on both cheap and expensive phones.

I don't know whether Apple will have the same good fortune in the AR/VR world eventually, but what I do know is that the Meta Quest headsets, and in turn – Meta Horizon OS – already dominate the growing AR/VR space.

I've been a fan of the Meta Quest 2, and now Meta Quest 3 for years now, partly because the team behind them is very active with updates, adding new features (often demanded from users), and improving on existing ones. 

Perhaps more importantly – Meta's current headsets are super accessible at just $199 for the Meta Quest 2, and $499 for the Meta Quest 3, which is a far lower bar of entry for newcomers, than Apple's $3,500 off-the-bat asking price.

And now, with Meta open-sourcing the Quest's OS like Google does with Android, new companies will start making AR/VR headsets with it. Cheaper, more expensive, weirder, better, worse; things we've seen with Android phones.

The AR/VR market will soon be flooded with well-rounded new headsets from Asus, Lenovo, and other competitive brands, so what happens to Apple Vision Pro?

Meta already says that Asus ROG, Lenovo, and even Microsoft will be using its now-open-source OS to build their own AR/VR headsets. Is Samsung coming on board soon? Nothing's been confirmed, but I don't see why not.

The AR/VR space will only get more competitive, and likely cheaper and better.

Yet Apple didn't quite succeed in entering it, even before all of that transpired, which has me a bit skeptical for the Vision Pro's future now.

I saw its potential, and truly wanted it to succeed, but that $3,500 price tag turned me away. I'm more than happy with my affordable Quest 3, and am very excited to see what AR/VR headsets those other companies will now be making with Meta's AR/VR OS.