1. Concepts & Definitions
1.1. Experiment, observation, and sample space
1.2. Sample space: Venn and Tree diagram
1.3. Simple and composite events
1.4. Three definitions of probability
1.5. Law of large numbers and its consequences
1.6. Frequency and empirical probability
2. Problem & Solution
2.4. Frequency of categories from tables
2.5. Simple and marginal probabilities
2.6. Conditional probabilities
Probability corresponds to the numerical measure of the possibility that a certain simple event Ei or composite event A occurs. It is represented by P(Ei) or P(A). There are three definitions for probability: Classical, Relative, and Subjective.
Whatever the definition, the probability must obey two properties:
The probability of a simple event Ei or a composite event A is positioned in the range between 0 and 1. That is: 0 ≤ P(Ei) ≤ 1 or 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1.
The sum of the probabilities of all single events Ei is equal to 1 .
Assume that two or more events have the same probability of occurrence such that they are considered equally possible.
Simple event: P(Ei) = 1/n ,
where n is the number of simple events.
Composite event: p(A) = |A|/|S|,
where |A| is the cardinality of set A, and |S| is the cardinality of set S and is equal to n.
An example of application of the Classical Probability in the experiment of throwing a dice once to find an answer to the following questions:
1. Probability of toss five-value: P(E5) = 1/6 .
2. Probability of tossing an even-value: Given A = {2, 4, 6}, and S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, then P(A) = |A|/|S| = |{2,4,6}|/|{1,2,3,4,5,6}| = 3/6 = 1/2 = 0.5
If an experiment is repeated n times, and an event E is observed f times, then, the probability of occurring event E will be P(E) = f/n, where: f is the frequency of event E, and n is the number of repetitions of the experiment.
An example of Relative Probability could be employed in the experiment of throwing a dice 1000 times, and the frequency of each face is given in the following table.
Then this table could be used to find an answer to the following questions:
1. Probability of face three: Given f = 200, and n = 1000:
P(Face 3) = 200/1000 = 0.20.
2. Probability of face six: Given f = 150 , and n = 1000:
P(Face 6) = 150/1000 = 0.15.
An interesting application of Empirical Probability is related to the time products have to wait in the customs clearance process in a port as illustrated in the following Table.
Then this table could be used to find an answer to the following questions:
1. Probability a product has to wait between 0 and 2 hours:
Given f = 4, and n = 4 + 9 + 6 + 4 + 2 = 25 then
P(0 ≤ x ≤ 2) = f /n = 4/25 = 0.16.
2. Probability a product has to wait more than 2 hours: Given f = 9 + 6 + 4 + 2 = 21, then
P(x > 2) = f/n = 21/25 = 0.84.
Represents a probability assigned to an event based on judgment, experience, information, and in subjective belief. Occurs in cases where present equally likely results can be repeated.
Some examples of Subjective probability are:
1. Probability that student A will pass discipline X.
2. Probability of team Y to win the next cup.
3. Probability of company Z to go bankrupt.