Kurzgesagt – In a Nutshell
Sources – Climate Responsibility
We are very happy and grateful that Our World In Data supported us in this video. They provided all numbers that the script is based on.
Our World in Data:
Most of the CO2 emissions data they use in their article, CO₂ and Greenhouse Gas Emissions, is based on the Global Carbon Project, a global research project, working closely together with the World Climate Research Programme.
Climate Responsibility Sources:
– Since the Industrial Revolution, humans have released over 1.5 trillion tonnes of carbon dioxide or CO2 into earth's atmosphere.
# "CO₂ and Greenhouse Gas Emissions", OWID, 2017
https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions
Quote: “Since 1751 the world has emitted over 1.5 trillion tonnes of CO2”
Numbers are based on the Global Carbon Project and Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre (CDIAC):
#Global Carbon Project, Global Carbon Atlas.
http://www.globalcarbonatlas.org/en/CO2-emissions
Original publication:
Global Carbon Budget, Le Quéré et al. (2018).
https://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/10/2141/2018/
#CDIAC. Boden, T.A., G. Marland, and R.J. Andres (2013).
– In the year 2019 we continue to pump out around 37 billion more.
Due to the impact of Covid-19 emissions will likely be much lower in 2020; so it is hard to make any predictions there yet.
In 2019 the Global Carbon Project estimates that the world emitted 36.8 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide.
https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/19/data.htm
Original publication: Global Carbon Budget 2019, Friedlingstein P. et al., 2019.
https://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/11/1783/2019/
Note that in the rest of the video we make comparisons based on the 2017 data from the Global Carbon Project – this is because the Global Carbon Project publishes national emissions data as ‘preliminary’ for the most recent few years. After this, they verify them as the ‘official’ estimates. Overall, the comparisons between 2017 and 2019 are very similar, and wouldn’t change the overall story.
#CO₂ and Greenhouse Gas Emissions, 2017.
https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions
Quote: “Whilst data from 2014 to 2017 suggested global annual emissions of CO2 had approximately stabilized, data from the Global Carbon Project reported a further annual increase of 2.7%, and 0.6% in 2018 and 2019, respectively.”
#Global Carbon Budget 2019, Friedlingstein P. et al., 2019.
https://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/11/1783/2019/
Comparison of the projection with realised fossil CO2 emissions (EFF). The “actual” values are the first estimates available using actual data, and the “projected” values refer to estimates made before the end of the year for each publication. ’
–That’s 50% more than the year 2000 and almost three times as much as 50 years ago. And emissions keep rising.
#OWID, Annual total CO2 emissions, by world region, 1751 to 2017, 2018.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co-emissions-by-region#
Data comes from:
#Global Carbon Project
http://www.globalcarbonatlas.org/en/CO2-emissions
#Original publication for Global Carbon Project: Global Carbon Budget 2018, Le Quéré et al. (2018).
https://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/10/2141/2018/
In the year 2000, we emitted around 24 billion tonnes of CO2 – this means they have increased by around 50% to reach 36 billion tonnes since then.
50 years ago (in 1970), the world was emitting around 15 billion tonnes of CO2 each year: that’s around one-third of the amount we release now, in 2019.
#Global Energy Growth Is Outpacing Decarbonization. September 2019.
‘Short of a dramatic global economic downturn in the final quarter in 2019, global CO2 emissions are likely to rise further. Projections in 2019 for growth in Gross Domestic Product are 3.2% (IMF 2019). However, projected economic growth of 6 to 8% for India and China and 2.5% in the United States (World Bank 2018) would almost certainly increase emissions over this year’s value of 37 ± 1.8 Gt CO2.’
– Combining all of our greenhouse gases, we’re emitting 51 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents each year.
It’s estimated that in 2018/19, we emitted around 51 to 52 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents (which includes all of the greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and other smaller but potent gases such as hydrofluorocarbons).
There are a range of estimates for global greenhouse gas emissions, which can vary depending on their assumptions and boundaries of what they do and don’t include in these estimates. Climate Watch lists a number of different estimates from different models and projects, with data to explore:
#CAIT Climate Data Explorer. Country Greenhouse Gas Emissions. 2019.
https://www.climatewatchdata.org/ghg-emissions.
Figures can vary, for example, depending on whether land use change is or isn’t included. There is also more uncertainty in estimates for non-CO2 gases than there is for CO2. However, overall estimates lie in the range of 49 to 55 billion tonnes depending on these assumptions.
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency PBL releases numbers annually on the total global Greenhouse Gas emissions:
#Trends in Global CO2 and Total Greenhouse Gas emissions. Summary of the 2019 Report, 2019.
Quote: “In 2018, the growth in global greenhouse gas emissions resumed at an annual rate of 2.0%, reaching 51.8 gigatonnes in CO2 equivalent (GtCO2 eq) excluding land-use change and 55.6 GtCO2 eq including land-use change”
#Trends in Global CO2 and Total Greenhouse Gas emissions, 2019.
Quote: “In 2018, the growth in total global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (excluding those from land-use change) resumed at a rate of 2.0%, reaching 51.8 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent (GtCO2 eq) after six years, with a somewhat lower annual growth of around 1.3% (Figure S.1).“
- In recent years the consequences have become more serious and visible. Almost every year breaks some horrible record. We had more heat waves, the most Glaciers melting, the least ice at the North Pole.
#United In Science. High-level synthesis report of latest climate science information convened by the Science Advisory Group of the UN Climate Action Summit, 2019.
This report puts together the key scientific findings of recent climate science work (changes in temperature trends, sea levels, glacier melting, wildfires and so on) by organizations including the World Meteorological Organization, UN Environment, Global Carbon Project, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Future Earth, Earth League and the Global Framework for Climate Services.
Quote: “The 2015 - 2019 five - year average temperatures were the highest on record for large areas of the United States, including Alaska, eastern parts of South America, most of Europe and the Middle East, northern Eurasia, Australia, and areas of Africa south of the Sahara. July 2019 was the hottest month on record globally.”
“Heatwaves were the deadliest meteorological hazard in the 2015–2019 period, affecting all continents and setting many new national temperature records. Summer 2019 saw unprecedented wildfires in the Arctic region. In June alone, these fires emitted 50 megatons (Mt) of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. This is more than was released by Arctic fires in the same month from 2010 to 2018 put together.”
“Most of the ice loss takes place by melting the ice shelves from below, due to incursions of relatively warm ocean water, especially in West Antarctica and to a lesser extent along the Peninsula and in East Antarctica. “
Take this as an example that the picture might even be worse than what is measured now with the current climate science tools and methods:
#Direct observations of submarine melt and subsurface geometry at a tidewater glacier. Science, 2019.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31346063
Quote: “The observed melt rates are up to two orders of magnitude greater than predicted by theory, challenging current simulations of ice loss from tidewater glaciers.”
#National Snow and Ice Data Center. SOTC: Sea Ice, 2019.
https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/sotc/sea_ice.html
- Of the last 22 years, 20 have been the hottest on record.
#World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirms past 4 years were warmest on record, 2019.
https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/wmo-confirms-past-4-years-were-warmest-record
Quote: “The 20 warmest years on record have been in the past 22 years.“
- The only way to limit this rapid climate change is to decrease our collective CO2 emissions, quickly.
#United Nations, Climate Change, 2019.
https://www.un.org/en/sections/issues-depth/climate-change/
Quote: “Without drastic action today, adapting to these impacts in the future will be more difficult and costly.”
- But although all countries agree on this goal in principle, they do not agree who is responsible and who should bear the heaviest load.
That almost all countries agree on this principle can be seen when looking at the Paris Climate Agreement. By now, all countries besides the US have signed it so far:
#The Paris Agreement
https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement
– The developed countries point at their own efforts of reducing emissions and the fact that the large developing countries on the rise, especially China, are currently releasing much more CO2.
We are generalizing a bit here. But especially the USA argued.
The US declared to leave the Paris Agreement in June 2017. In the press conference, President Trump explains why, pointing at China and India.
#Statement by President Trump on the Paris Climate Accord, 2017.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/statement-president-trump-paris-climate-accord/
Quote: “As someone who cares deeply about the environment, which I do, I cannot in good conscience support a deal that punishes the United States — which is what it does -– the world’s leader in environmental protection, while imposing no meaningful obligations on the world’s leading polluters. For example, under the agreement, China will be able to increase these emissions by a staggering number of years — 13. They can do whatever they want for 13 years. Not us. India makes its participation contingent on receiving billions and billions and billions of dollars in foreign aid from developed countries. There are many other examples. But the bottom line is that the Paris Accord is very unfair, at the highest level, to the United States.”
There is also a large body of academic literature on the challenges of international climate agreement – the role of equity, conflict and how to resolve it:
#Burden Sharing and Fairness Principles in International Climate Policy, 2002.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1023/A:1015041613785
#Negotiating challenges and climate change, 2012.
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2012.693392
#India as an emerging power in international climate negotiations, 2012.
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2012.691226
#Beyond Copenhagen: next steps, 2011.
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.3763/cpol.2010.0693
This study analyzes the situation with the help of the game-theory:
#A bargaining game analysis of international climate negotiations, 2014.
https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2229
- In 2017 Humans emitted about 36 billion tonnes of CO2 per year.
#Annual total CO2 emissions, by world region, 1751 to 2017, 2018.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co-emissions-by-region#
Data comes from:
#Global Carbon Project
http://www.globalcarbonatlas.org/en/CO2-emissions
#Original publication for Global Carbon Project: Global Carbon Budget 2018, Le Quéré et al. (2018).
https://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/10/2141/2018/
– More than 50% comes from Asia. North America and Europe follow with 18% and 17%. While Africa, South America and Oceania together only contribute 8%. China is by far the world’s largest emitter with 10 billion tonnes of CO2 every year or 27% of global emissions! It is followed by the USA with 15% and the European Union with around 10%. Next on our list is India at 7%; Russia at 5%; Japan at 3%; and Iran, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, and Canada all just short of 2%. Together with the first three, the top ten are responsible for 75% of global emissions.
For the script we rounded the numbers that you can see on the graph below. The sum of 75% is based on the rounded numbers from this graph
#OWID, Annual CO2 emissions.
https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#annual-co2-emissions
Data comes from Global Carbon Project:
http://www.globalcarbonatlas.org/en/CO2-emissions
https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/
- The US and the EU both knock China off the top-spot. The US is responsible for 25% of the world’s historical emissions – emitting 400 billion tonnes, mostly in the 20th century. In second place is the EU at 22%. China comes in third, at just under 13%. Around half of the USA’s contribution. India’s contribution shrinks to 3%, alongside the whole of Africa and South America. Within the EU, the UK is responsible for 1% of yearly global emissions, but takes 5% of the historical responsibility.
#OWID, Cumulative CO₂ emissions.
https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#cumulative-co2-emissions
Data comes from:
#Global Carbon Project, Global Carbon Atlas.
http://www.globalcarbonatlas.org/en/CO2-emissions
Original publication:
Global Carbon Budget, Le Quéré et al. (2018).
https://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/10/2141/2018/
#CDIAC. Boden, T.A., G. Marland, and R.J. Andres (2013).
#OWID, Share of global cumulative CO2 emissions of UK
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-of-cumulative-co2?tab=chart&year=latest&country=~GBR
#OWID, Annual share of global CO2 emissions of UK in 2017
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-share-of-co2-emissions?tab=chart&country=~GBR
– Germany, producing 2% of emissions per year today, has contributed almost 6%, as much as the whole of Africa and South America combined.
Africa and South America both emitted around 3% of the global emissions.
Germany around 6%.
#OWID, Share of global cumulative CO₂ emissions.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-of-cumulative-co2?year=latest
Data comes from:
#Global Carbon Project, Global Carbon Atlas.
http://www.globalcarbonatlas.org/en/CO2-emissions
Original publication:
Global Carbon Budget, Le Quéré et al. (2018).
https://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/10/2141/2018/
#CDIAC. Boden, T.A., G. Marland, and R.J. Andres (2013).
#OWID, Share of global cumulative CO2 emissions of Germany
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-of-cumulative-co2?tab=chart&country=~DEU
#OWID, Annual share of global CO2 emissions of Germany in 2017
– The average human is responsible for around 5 tonnes of CO2 each year. The countries with the largest CO2 emissions per person are some of the world’s major oil and gas producers: 2017 Qatar had the highest emissions at an obscene 49 tonnes per person, followed by Trinidad and Tobago; Kuwait; United Arab Emirates; Brunei, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. Australians have one of the highest carbon footprints per person : 17 tonnes each year. That’s more than triple the global average and slightly more than the average US American and Canadian at 16 tonnes. The Germans do a little better at close to 10 tonnes, but this is still twice the global average.
#OWID, CO₂ emissions per capita 1800 to 2017.
Data comes from:
Global Carbon Project; Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre (CDIAC); Gapminder and UN population estimates
- China may be the world’s largest emitter, but it’s also the world’s most populous country with over 1.4 billion people – 18.5% of the world population. Per person it is slightly above average with 6 tonnes.
#OWID, CO₂ emissions per capita 1800 to 2017.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/co-emissions-per-capita?tab=chart&country=CHN
Data comes from:
Global Carbon Project; Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre (CDIAC); Gapminder and UN population estimates
- Wealth is one of the strongest indicators of our carbon footprint because as we move from poor to rich we gain access to electricity, heating, air conditioning, lighting, modern cooking, cars or planes, smart phones, computers and interact with people across the world online.
#OWID, Global inequalities in CO₂ emissions, 2018.
https://ourworldindata.org/co2-by-income-region#emissions-by-country-s-income
Quote: “Even several billion additional people in low-income countries — where fertility rates and population growth is already highest — would leave global emissions almost unchanged. 3 or 4 billion low income individuals would only account for a few percent of global CO2. At the other end of the distribution however, adding only one billion high income individuals would increase global emissions by almost one-third.3”
- The enormous rise of China's CO2 emissions is coupled with the greatest reduction of poverty in history.
#China's Approach to Reduce Poverty: Taking Targeted Measures to Lift People out of Poverty, 2018
https://www.un.org/development/desa/dspd/wp-content/uploads/sites/22/2018/05/31.pdf
#OWID, CO₂ emissions per capita 1800 to 2017.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-country?tab=chart&country=~CHN
Data comes from:
Global Carbon Project; Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre (CDIAC)
- If we order CO2 emissions by income, we see that the richest half of countries are responsible for 86% of global emissions and the bottom half, only for 14%.
#OWID, Global inequalities in CO2 emissions, 2018
https://ourworldindata.org/co2-by-income-region#emissions-by-country-s-income
Quote: “When aggregated in terms of income, we see in the visualization that the richest half (high and upper-middle income countries) emit 86 percent of global CO2 emissions. The bottom half (low and lower-middle income) only 14%.“
- The average German emits more than five times as much as the average Indian. In just 2.3 days the average American emits as much as the average Nigerian in a year.
Germany has a per capita emission of 9.73 tonnes. This is about five times more than what India emits with 1.84 tonnes per capita.
The USA emit 16.24 tonnes per capita in one year. In 2.3 days this is a per capita emission of 0,1 tonnes per person, around as much as the per capita emissions in Niger in one year:
#OWID, CO₂ emissions per capita 1800 to 2017.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/co-emissions-per-capita?tab=chart&country=NER+USA+DEU+IND
Data comes from:
Global Carbon Project; Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre (CDIAC); Gapminder and UN population estimates
- And not only that, the harsh reality is that it’s the countries that contribute least to the problem stand to lose the most from rapid climate change. The developing world will be hit the hardest. The consequences could be food insecurity, conflicts over resources, harsher and more numerous natural disasters, and large climate refugee movements.
#The Inequality of Climate Change From 1.5 to 2°C of Global Warming, 2018.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GL078430
Quote: “Here we show that exceeding the 1.5°C global warming target would lead to the poorest experiencing the greatest local climate changes.“
- If we don’t want poorer countries to become as fossil fuel dependent as we are, we need low-carbon technology to be cheap and available. And we’re getting there: the cost of renewables are falling quickly and a variety of solutions are on the horizon for many different sectors. But it needs to happen much faster.
#Falling Costs Make Wind, Solar More Affordable, 2019
https://blogs.imf.org/2019/04/26/falling-costs-make-wind-solar-more-affordable/
This chart by Our World in Data shows the decrease of prices for solar energy:
#OWID, Solar PV module prices vs. cumulative capacity, 1976 to 2016.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices-vs-cumulative-capacity
- The other thing is influence. Yes, China is the largest emitter right now. But if the rich countries of the western sphere decided to seriously tackle rapid climate change the rest of the world will follow because it has no choice. Just like when the European Union enforced energy efficiency standards for technology, the rest of the world adapted it too because they wanted to be able to continue trading.
#Impacts of the EU’s Ecodesign and Energy/Tyre Labelling Legislation on Third Jurisdictions, 2014.
https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/documents/201404_ieel_third_jurisdictions.pdf
This report from the European Commission outlines the impact of European policies of ecodesign and equipment energy efficiency labeling on the policies of non-EU countries and vice versa.
Quote: ’The evidence gathered in this project implies extensive EU policy influence in 3rd countries, in particular in the design of the energy label. Out of 59 non-EU countries that have adopted equipment energy DESNL13605 3 labelling schemes, half of them (53%) have adopted designs that have fully or partially emulated the EU energy label (Figure ES-2). This includes major economies such as Brazil, China, Korea, Russia and South Africa as well as EU accession states and many others including most South American countries, many North African countries and several countries in the Middle East. The timeline for energy labelling supports the assumption of EU influence as countries that adopted the labels earlier than the EU are of a different design.’
#Savings and benefits of global regulations for energy efficient products, 2015.
This report follows from the previous one above and looks more closely into the issues of how to align policies regarding the energy efficiency of energy-related products and what the potential benefits of and barriers to the convergence of these policies are.
Quote: ’The EU Energy Labelling Directive is influential globally:
- The EU label’s colour coding and arrows system is particularly influential and emulated, due to its being easily recognisable and understood by consumers. More than 50% of studied energy labels were fully or partially derived from the EU system, including major economies such as China, Russia and South Africa. Other leading economies, including the US, Japan, India and Australia, adopted their own labelling systems with little or no alignment with EU labels (although sometimes with some alignment within the other regions).
The EU Ecodesign Directive is also influential globally:
- More than 50% of the non-EU countries with MEPS adopted a MEPS fully or partially derived from the EU system, including major economies such as China, Australia and South Africa. Other leading economies, including the US, Japan and India adopted their own MEPS requirements with little or no alignment with the EU.
The greatest global alignment on product energy efficiency policy can be found in the area of test procedures. There is a high level of alignment with EU test procedures, including some alignment of procedures with policy-divergent countries such as the US, Japan, India, and Australia.
Motivations for alignment of policies and procedures include the desire to avoid duplication of effort, to facilitate international trade and to avoid product dumping. Alignment typically follows a ‘lead’ country for that product. This varies by product, i.e. laundry equipment (EU), electric motors (US). ’
#Raising Energy Efficiency Standards to the Global Best, Bishop, R., 2015.
Quote: ‘The Commission believes that the G20 countries are well positioned to take the lead, in collaboration with international standards organisations, representatives from industry, and energy efficiency best practice networks. Together, given their market scale and influence on technological uptake, the G20 countries can make a global impact.’