Integrating the Impacts of Climate Change on New England Groundfish into Stock Assessments.

Kerr, Lisa^1,2, Jamie Behan², Amanda Hart², Alex Hansell³, Tim Miller³, Steven Cadrin⁴, ¹University of Maine, ²Gulf of Maine Research Institute, ³NOAA NEFSC, ⁴University of Massachusetts Dartmouth

The Northeast U.S. shelf ecosystem is a complex and changing region that supports a wide array of living marine resources and resource-dependent human communities. Over the last 40 years, the waters of the Northwest Atlantic have warmed at a rate over three times the global average, and recent decadal warming is among the fastest in the world. This warming has led to geographic shifts in commercial species and declines in economically and culturally important stocks. Due to the rapid pace of change in the region, there is a critical need to develop and apply scientific knowledge and tools that can help integrate climate change impacts into stock assessment. Here we describe a structured approach to operational integration of climate change impacts in the context of a stock assessment process. We then describe the application of this approach to the American plaice stock assessment process and ongoing processes for Atlantic cod, yellowtail flounder and winter flounder. The approach involves: 1) review of the best available science and fishermen’s ecosystem knowledge of climate impacts on focal groundfish stocks, 2) exploratory modeling of relationships among climate, ocean, and stock variables, and 3) application of climate informed stock assessment modeling. Accounting for climate impacts on groundfish dynamics in stock assessment has the potential to improve the accuracy of assessment and effectiveness of management and will support resilience and adaptation of fisheries and the communities and economies that depend on them.