It’s Getting Hot in Here: Forecasting Climate Change and Hake Abundance within the Gulf of Maine

LaFreniere, Benjamin*¹, Briony Donahue², Rebecca Peters², Dr. Richard McBride³, Dr. John Mohan¹, ¹University of New England, ²Maine Department of Marine Resources, ³Northeast Fisheries Science Center

According to the latest reports, the Gulf of Maine is currently warming faster than 99% of the world’s oceans. As a result, this region has become an ideal location for research into the effects that warming has on the historical fisheries that inhabit this ocean basin. Both White Hake (Urophycis tenuis) and Red Hake (Urophycis chuss) are common Gulf of Maine groundfish species, distributed in both in the inshore and offshore environment. While these two species are closely related phycid hakes, their respective life histories and commercial status in the Gulf of Maine are very different. As of recent, White Hake are recognized in the Gulf of Maine as an overfished stock, while Red Hake are above target catch levels. We hypothesize that like other cold-water species, the effects of climate change might influence shifts in stock behavior, such as changes in species distribution. We use generalized additive models (GAMs) to investigate the relationship between hake abundance and environmental conditions using bottom temperature, salinity, depth, and catch data contributed by the Maine Department of Marine Resources during their Maine - New Hampshire Inshore Trawl Surveys of the last 20+ years. This study focuses on both determining environmental conditions that influence hake abundance, as well as elucidate species specific responses to a rapidly shifting ecosystem, with hopes of forecasting future trends in the inshore stock. We aim to further support the literature on climate-induced species shifts along the U.S east coast to inform future management practices in this region.