Energy and the Challenges Faced by Climate Change

by Smit Patil 30^th March, 2020

How much energy does the world consume?

Let’s first take a look at how global energy production, both in terms of quantity and source, has changed over the long-term. In the visualization, I have plotted global energy consumption from 1800 through to 2018. It is very evident from the graph that the primary sources of energy for most of the two centuries were Coal, Crude Oil, and Natural Gas. Traditional Bio-fuels have remained mainly constant and a reliable source of energy around the world. In the past century, Hydro-power and Nuclear Energy have gained suitable traction, but if we were to compare their share of power with coal and Crude Oil, then it's atomic. Solar energy is also developing quite a bit of momentum, and more and more countries are installing Solar Photovoltaics in their energy grid system.

Energy Consumption by Countries

Who are the largest consumers of energy in the world? In the chart, we see a race between various countries for the primary energy consumption from 1965-2015. Since 1965 the United States (US) has been the dominant consumer of the energy followed by the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). These two countries mostly dominated the amount of energy consumed for almost three decades. Since the start of the new century, China has increased its consumption of energy. Now China is the leader in most energy-consuming countries from the last decade.

Electric Power Consumption (1971 - 2014)

The choropleth map on the left shows a distribution of electric power consumption across the world. The data used for this visualization is an average of the electrical power consumption of the countries from 1971 - 2014. It is very evident from the map that the North American and the Scandinavian countries are the highest consumer of electricity across the globe.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Fossil Fuels

Fossil fuels may have environmental implications for the short term (in the case of local air pollution) and the long run (in the context of climate change). A significant source of carbon dioxide (CO₂) is fossil fuels – a primary source of global power production.

However, fossil fuels can vary significantly in their relative emissions of CO₂ per unit of energy. To compare these differences, we use a metric called a ‘carbon dioxide emissions factor’ – which is shown for various fossil fuel sources in the chart. This is measured as the quantity of CO₂ emitted (in kilograms) per unit of energy produced (in megawatt-hours). These factors are defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and are applied across global and national accounts of greenhouse gas emissions.

From the chart below, we can see that Charcoal is the leading source of CO₂ emission with an average rate of 403.2 kgCO₂ per MWh. Oil Shale, Tar Sands, and Coke are the next most CO₂ emitting products, all emitting about 385.2 kgCO₂ per MWh.

Is Solar the way out?

If we consider how the average cost of technologies changed from 2010-16, we see that both solar PV (and to a lesser extent, solar thermal) dropped substantially. This cost reduction in solar PV has been dramatic over the past few decades, as shown in the chart. The price of solar PV modules has fallen more than 100-fold since 1976. On average, the technology has had a learning rate of 22 percent; this means that the cost decreases by 22 percent for every doubling in solar PV capacity (although progress has not necessarily been constant over this period). Also, there is a catch in installing solar PV modules, which we are going to study further in more detail.

Case Study: California State Hourly Energy Demand Curve

Amidst the global awareness about the increase in the average temperature around the world and a rise in the sea level, the California state government decided to move towards a renewable source of energy for their state and also reduce the reliance on fossil fuels in this highly volatile market. Eventually, the state government decided to settle on the Solar Photovoltaics (PV) as a new and a greener source of energy. Years following that decision, the state started to introduce more and more Solar Photovoltaics in its energy grid system.

As you can see from the bar graph below, the solar energy capacity for the state of California doubled from the year 2011 to 2012 and quadrupled from the year 2012 to 2013. The growth rate remained significantly high from the years 2013 to 2018. If we were to compare the installed solar capacity in the state of California for this decade to the previous decade, then we can conclude that there is a seismic shift in the installed capacity for these two decades.

Such a rapid increase in the installed capacity of solar photovoltaics lead to a more significant increase in the net generation of energy from solar photovoltaics. Solar photovoltaics are most active during the day time when there is ample sunlight to generate electricity. This newly acquired energy source in the hands of the utility managers leads them to decrease the energy output from the non-renewable sources during the daytime.

Decreasing the output from the non-renewable sources and thus reducing the dependence on them might look desirable, but this need not be the case always. If we look clearly from the grid operators' perspective, then they have this solar energy disposable during the daytime when the demand is not so high – the need for energy ramps up during evening time when everyone leaves their offices and go home. Also, during this time, the solar energy output decrease due to inadequate sunlight, so the grid managers have to ramp up the production of energy from the non-renewable sources.

It might seem like an obvious thing to do, but we have to understand that the non-renewable source of energy production operates at very low-cost efficiency. If we were to change the output power so frequently, then the energy companies might incur financial losses. So, in conclusion, building, more and more solar infrastructure without prior knowledge of the grid system may lead to more damaging outcomes without any substantial benefit to the climate.

The graph shown on the left is displaying the demand curve for the state of California from 2014 to 2020. The hourly curve resembles the shape of a Duck, and hence it's called the Duck curve. You can also see that the year over year mid-day demand is dropping steadily. The mid-day demand for the year 2020 is expected to drop even more.

(Note: The figures shown on the graph for the year 2020 are expected values and not actual values)

Conclusion:

We cannot deny the fact that climate change is real, and we need to take substantial steps today to have a better tomorrow. While making such tough decisions, we also need to be careful about the fact that there are many industrial processes in place right now that might get hindered due to such extreme measures. Energy, although being the key pollutant for the climate, is also a vital factor in the day to day functioning of our lives. We have a huge challenge ahead of us to systematically transfer our society from the non-renewable source of energy to a renewable and greener source of energy.

References:

Vaclav Smil. Appendix A of Vaclav Smil's Updated and Revised Edition of his book, 'Energy Transitions: Global and National Perspectives' (2017). [Online]. Available from: http://vaclavsmil.com/2016/12/14/energy-transitions-global-and-national-perspectives-second-expanded-and-updated-edition/ [Accessed 16th March 2020].
BP. BP Statistical Review of World Energy. [Online]. Available from: https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html [Accessed 16th March 2020].
Our world in Data. Energy. [Online]. Available from: https://ourworldindata.org/energy [Accessed 16th March 2020].
The World Bank. Electric power consumption (kWh per capita). [Online]. Available from: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC [Accessed 18th March 2020].
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (2006). [Online]. Available from: https://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/pdf/2_Volume2/V2_2_Ch2_Stationary_Combustion.pdf [Accessed 20th March 2020].
Our world in Data. Renewable Energy. [Online]. Available from: https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy [Accessed 20th March 2020].
Solar photovoltaic (PV) data for the years 1976-2014 are sourced from Lafond et al. The Navigant Research series (2017). [Online]. Available from: https://www.navigantresearch.com/ [Accessed 21th March 2020].
Solar photovoltaic (PV) data for the years 2015 and 2016 are sourced from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). IRENA global solar PV installed capacity. [Online]. Available from: http://resourceirena.irena.org/gateway/dashboard/ [Accessed 22th March 2020].
Our world in Data. Fossil Fuels. [Online]. Available from: https://ourworldindata.org/fossil-fuels [Accessed 24th March 2020].
California Energy Commission. California Solar Energy Statistics and Data. [Online]. Available from: https://ww2.energy.ca.gov/almanac/renewables_data/solar/index_cms.php [Accessed 24th March 2020].
Wikipedia. Solar power in California. [Online]. Available from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_California [Accessed 24th March 2020].
California ISO. CISO Current and Forecasted Demand. [Online]. Available from: http://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/default.aspx [Accessed 25th March 2020].
California ISO OASIS. CAISO Demand Forecast. [Online]. Available from: http://oasis.caiso.com/mrioasis/logon.do [Accessed 25th March 2020].
VOX Media. Solar power's greatest challenge was discovered 10 years ago. It looks like a duck. [Online]. Available from: https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/3/20/17128478/solar-duck-curve-nrel-researcher [Accessed 26th March 2020].
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Overgeneration from Solar Energy in California: A Field Guide to the Duck Chart. [Online]. Available from: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy16osti/65023.pdf [Accessed 27th March 2020].

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Energy and the Challenges Faced by Climate Change

by Smit Patil 30th March, 2020

How much energy does the world consume?

Energy Consumption by Countries

Electric Power Consumption (1971 - 2014)

Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Fossil Fuels

Fossil fuels may have environmental implications for the short term (in the case of local air pollution) and the long run (in the context of climate change). A significant source of carbon dioxide (CO2) is fossil fuels – a primary source of global power production.

From the chart below, we can see that Charcoal is the leading source of CO2 emission with an average rate of 403.2 kgCO2 per MWh. Oil Shale, Tar Sands, and Coke are the next most CO2 emitting products, all emitting about 385.2 kgCO2 per MWh.

Is Solar the way out?

Case Study: California State Hourly Energy Demand Curve

(Note: The figures shown on the graph for the year 2020 are expected values and not actual values)

Conclusion:

References:

by Smit Patil 30^th March, 2020

Fossil fuels may have environmental implications for the short term (in the case of local air pollution) and the long run (in the context of climate change). A significant source of carbon dioxide (CO₂) is fossil fuels – a primary source of global power production.

From the chart below, we can see that Charcoal is the leading source of CO₂ emission with an average rate of 403.2 kgCO₂ per MWh. Oil Shale, Tar Sands, and Coke are the next most CO₂ emitting products, all emitting about 385.2 kgCO₂ per MWh.