Recent publication:

Dancygier, Rafaela, Sirus H. Dehdari, David D. Laitin, Mortiz Marbach, and Kåre Vernby. 2025. Emigration and radical right populism. American Journal of Political Science

Abstract:

An extensive literature links the rise of populist radical right (PRR) parties to immigration. We argue that another demographic trend is also significant: Emigration. The departure of citizens due to internal and international emigration is a major phenomenon affecting elections via two complementary mechanisms. Emigration alters the composition of electorates, but also changes the preferences of the left behind. Empirically, we establish a positive correlation between PRR vote shares and net-migration loss at the subnational level across Europe. A more fine-grained panel analysis of precincts in Sweden demonstrates that the departure of citizens raises PRR vote shares in places of emigration and that the Social Democrats are the principal losers from emigration. Elite interviews and newspaper analyses explore how emigration produces material and psychological grievances on which populists capitalize and that established parties do not effectively address. Emigration and the frustrations it generates emerge as important sources of populist success.

Andersson, H, Sirus H. Dehdari, Karl-Oskar Lindgren. Accepted. Age at Migration and the Political Integration of Immigrants – Evidence from a Sibling Analysis. International Migration Review.

Abstract:

We study the effect of age at migration among immigrants in Sweden on political participation as adults. To identify the effect, we use validated individual turnout data over three elections in Sweden (1994, 2010 and 2018), and compare outcomes among siblings who arrive at the same time but at different ages. We document a clear effect on political participation from early arrival: immigrants arriving in early childhood (ages 0 to 5) are about five to ten percentage points more likely to partake in national elections as adults compared to immigrants arriving later (ages 12 to 17) during their childhood. We further show that the effect is partially persistent over the life-cycle.

Dehdari, Sirus H, Mathilde van Ditmars, Karl-Oskar Lindgren, Sven Oskarsson and Kåre Vernby. 2024. Early Voting Can Widen the Turnout Gap: The Case of Childbirth. Electoral Studies

Abstract:

Early voting procedures boost voter participation and have therefore been suggested as institutional remedies for the problem of unequal turnout. Scholars have, however, raised concerns that making voting more convenient may actually lead to a less representative electorate. We contribute to this debate by leveraging large-scale Swedish registry data to analyze persons expecting a child around the time of the election. Our results indicate that politically engaged high-status voters are more likely to use the opportunity to vote in advance when faced with the risk of not being able to vote on election day. Given the large number of obstacles to election-day voting that individuals face throughout life, it is therefore conceivable that efforts to make voting more convenient and less costly for citizens may in the end lead to less representative electorates.

Aggeborn, Linuz, Henrik Andersson, Sirus H. Dehdari, and Karl-Oskar Lindgren. 2024. Granting Immigrants the Right to Vote in National Elections: Empirical Evidence from Swedish Administrative Data. British Journal of Political Science

Abstract:

Faced with rising levels of cross-border migration, many countries have extended local voting rights to non-citizen residents. However, empirical evidence indicates that voter turnout among non-naturalized immigrants is lower compared to citizens. This raises the question of how to explain this difference. A common answer is that the low turnout rates of non-citizen residents are primarily due to the socio-economic composition of this group and the challenges involved in adapting to a new political system. An alternative but less discussed possibility is that the low turnout to a greater extent concerns the nature of the elections. Hence, we examine if the turnout of non-citizens is hampered due to the fact that they are only allowed to partake in local elections. Based on a RD design using Swedish administrative data, we find that turnout could increase by as much as 10--20 percentage points if the voting rights of non-citizens were extended to the national level.

Ongoing research projects:

• Does increased socioeconomic segregation lead to increased political inequality? (With PI Karl-Oskar Lindgren and co-PI Henrik Andersson)

• Who stands up for liberal democracy in the face of organized crime? Micro-level evidence on public opinion in the context of violent organized crime (with PI Hanne Fjelde and co-PI Annekatrin Deglow)

Upcoming talks/conference participation:

August: UCLS

October: SWEPSA

December: SUDA, Stockholm University; Lund University

Teaching

• Quantitative Methods