Recent publication:

Dancygier, Rafaela, Sirus H. Dehdari, David D. Laitin, Mortiz Marbach, and Kåre Vernby. 2025. Emigration and radical right populism. American Journal of Political Science

Abstract:

An extensive literature links the rise of populist radical right (PRR) parties to immigration. We argue that another demographic trend is also significant: Emigration. The departure of citizens due to internal and international emigration is a major phenomenon affecting elections via two complementary mechanisms. Emigration alters the composition of electorates, but also changes the preferences of the left behind. Empirically, we establish a positive correlation between PRR vote shares and net-migration loss at the subnational level across Europe. A more fine-grained panel analysis of precincts in Sweden demonstrates that the departure of citizens raises PRR vote shares in places of emigration and that the Social Democrats are the principal losers from emigration. Elite interviews and newspaper analyses explore how emigration produces material and psychological grievances on which populists capitalize and that established parties do not effectively address. Emigration and the frustrations it generates emerge as important sources of populist success.

Andersson, H, Sirus H. Dehdari, Karl-Oskar Lindgren. Accepted. Age at Migration and the Political Integration of Immigrants – Evidence from a Sibling Analysis. International Migration Review.

Abstract:

We study the effect of age at migration among immigrants in Sweden on political participation as adults. To identify the effect, we use validated individual turnout data over three elections in Sweden (1994, 2010 and 2018), and compare outcomes among siblings who arrive at the same time but at different ages. We document a clear effect on political participation from early arrival: immigrants arriving in early childhood (ages 0 to 5) are about five to ten percentage points more likely to partake in national elections as adults compared to immigrants arriving later (ages 12 to 17) during their childhood. We further show that the effect is partially persistent over the life-cycle.

Ongoing research projects:

• Opportunity on the Move: Geographic Mobility and Democratic Participation across Generations. With PI Kåre Vernby and co-applicants Rafaela Dancygier, Moritz Marbach, and David Laitin.  Funded by The Swedish Research Council.

• Organized crime and citizens' trust in the state. With PI Annekatrin Deglow and co-applicant Hanne Fjelde. Funded by Riksbankens Jubileumsfond.

• Structural Change, Education, and the Radical Right: The Political Realignment of Young Men in Rural Sweden. With PI Jens Rydgren and co-applicant Zeth Isaksson. Funded by The Swedish Research Council.

• Does increased socioeconomic segregation lead to increased political inequality? With PI Karl-Oskar Lindgren and co-applicant Henrik Andersson. Funded by The Swedish Research Council.

• Who stands up for liberal democracy in the face of organized crime? Micro-level evidence on public opinion in the context of violent organized crime. With PI Hanne Fjelde and co-applicant Annekatrin Deglow. Funded by The Swedish Research Council.

Upcoming talks/conference participation:

August: UCLS

October: SWEPSA

December: SUDA, Stockholm University; Lund University

Teaching

• Quantitative Methods