Statistical Models for U.S. Electricity Grid Renewable Production

Created a simulation of future wind speeds in Northeastern U.S And Southeastern Canada in R

Mission of the project

Optimize the placement of renewable power plants to create a reliable green grid

Collected data was complied, cleaned, and pre-analyzed for use in the model

A gerneric sinsousldal model was created and fitted with prepocessed data

Residuals from the model are processed and used to create a simulation

Simulated results for all locations were analyzes to identify trends

Combined data across several large files From the NSRDB (National Solar Radiation Database)
- Using a custom-made R script
Metadata
- 31 locations over 24 years
- Predictors – Wind Speed
- 13,000,000 records
Preprocessing
- Calculated daily average speed for each location
  - Captures the wind speed for each day
  - Differences are more meaningful
- Randomly selected 15% of the data per location
  - Minimizing error isn’t the main objective
Scaled and Centered the data
- Better Performance and normal error distribution
Visualized Data

Purpose
1. Model behavior across complex systems
2. Determine the locations that are most influential
3. Comparison of different scenarios to Determine the ideal locations
Need to capture randomness to find general trends
1. Not Anomalies

General Sinusoidal Model

Model Error

Model Objective
- Objective to select a combination of coeffects to minimize error
Simulation Objective
- Appropriately model error to apply randomness to the simulation
- f ̂(x)=f(x)+ϵ

Simulated Windspeed

The next 1000 days of wind speeds
- Error distribution add the randomness
Random Error
- Still simulated lower than expected wind speed
- Predict peak wind days

Low Correlation Benefit
- Locations with little correction could power each other
- i.e. with less correlation, if one location has little wind, then another location is more likely to have stronger winds
Several locations are poorly correlated with most other locations
- Can supply more locations power on still days

North Coast of the Delaware Bay
- Large body of water
- Flat costal planes across the bay

Combination of proximity to a body of water and geographical features

Locations with the least correlations also have the highest average and standard deviation of wind speed

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