Shelby Buckman

Photo Credits: Vanessa Coleman

I am a 6th year Ph.D. candidate in the Department of Economics at Stanford University.

My research interests include labor markets and worker mobility.

Prior to starting at Stanford, I studied at the University of Kentucky and received a B.S. in Economics and Mathematics in 2019. From 2019 to 2021, I worked as a research associate at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

CV: PDF

Contact: buckman@stanford.edu

Fields: Labor Economics, Macroeconomics

References:

Nick Bloom nbloom@stanford.edu

Isaac Sorkin sorkin@stanford.edu

Pete Klenow klenow@stanford.edu

Working Papers:

Should I Stay or Should I Go? Coworker Promotions and Turnover · Job Market Paper

with Lily Seitelman and Tom Bowen

Workers’ decisions to remain with an employer depend not only on current job conditions but also on their expectations about future career opportunities at the firm. We study how worker mobility changes when higher level positions are filled through coworker promotions or external hires, and what workers infer from these events. Because personnel events can inform workers about both future openings and their own advancement prospects, we develop a conceptual framework that captures both dimensions. We measure belief updating directly using randomized survey vignettes describing coworker promotions and external hires that vary in their career relevance to the worker. Belief updates on both dimensions differ by event type and career relevance, while intended mobility responses are stronger for more career relevant events. We complement the survey evidence with matched employer-employee payroll data on realized mobility. Cumulative separations rise by 1.3 percentage points within one year of a coworker promotion and by 1.7 percentage points following an external hire. Separation responses vary little with observable firm conditions but are larger for workers higher in the firm and for those with fewer close coworkers. Among workers exposed to the same promotion, separation responses also differ by their position relative to the promoted coworker. Together, the results show that personnel decisions affecting one position can shape worker mobility in part through what workers infer about their own future opportunities.

The New Geography of Labor Markets · Revised and resubmitted to Economic Journal

with Mert Akan, Jose Maria Barrero, Nick Bloom, Tom Bowen, Steve Davis, and Hyoseul Kim

We use matched employer-employee data to study where Americans live in relation to employer worksites. Mean distance from employee home to employer worksite rose from 15 miles in 2019 to 26 miles in 2023. Twelve percent of employees hired after March 2020 live at least fifty miles from their employers in 2023, triple the pre-pandemic share. Distance from employer rose more for persons in their 30s and 40s, in highly paid employees, and in Finance, Information, and Professional Services. Among persons who stay with the same employer from one year to the next, we find net migration to states with lower top tax rates and areas with cheaper housing. These migration patterns greatly intensify after the pandemic and are much stronger for high earners. Top tax rates fell 5.2 percentage points for high earners who stayed with the same employer but switched states in 2020. Finally, we show that employers treat distant employees as a more flexible margin of adjustment.

Measuring Work from Home · Reject and resubmit at Journal of Human Resources

with Jose Maria Barrero, Nick Bloom, and Steve Davis

Headline estimates for the extent of work from home (WFH) differ widely across U.S. surveys. The differences shrink greatly when we harmonize with respect to the WFH concept, target population, and question design. As of 2025, our preferred estimates say that WFH accounts for a quarter of paid workdays among Americans aged 20-64. The WFH rate is seven percentage points higher for workers with children under eight in the household and about two percentage points higher for women than men. Desired WFH rates exceed actual rates in every major demographic group – more so for women, workers with young children, and less educated workers.

Publications:

Economic Gains from Equity with Laura Choi, Mary C. Daly, and Lily Seitelman

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall 2021: 71–111, June 2022

Replicating and Projecting the Path of COVID-19 with a Model-Implied Reproduction Number with Reuven Glick, Kevin Lansing, Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, and Lily Seitelman

Journal of Infectious Disease Modelling 5. pp. 635-651, 2020

Works in Progress:

The Gendered Effects of Work-from-Home on Spousal Labor Market Outcomes · Draft not yet available. Census disclosure required.

with Lily M. Seitelman

Big India vs Big U.S. · Draft not yet available. Census disclosure required.

with Mert Akan, Nick Bloom, Pete Klenow, and Megha Patnaik

Unemployment and long-run EPOP with Huiyu Li and Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau

Short Publications:

Americans Now Live Farther from Their Employers with Mert Akan, Jose Maria Barrero, Nick Bloom, Tom Bowen, Steve Davis, Luke Pardue, and Liz Wilke

February 2024

How Much Work from Home Is There in the United States? with Jose Maria Barrero, Nick Bloom, and Steve Davis

January 2024

Benchmarking SWAA Estimates of the Prevalence of Working From Home with Jose Maria Barrero, Nick Bloom, and Steve Davis

February 2023

The Unequal Impact of COVID-19: Why Education Matters with Mary C. Daly and Lily Seitelman

FRBSF Economic Letter 2020-17

News Sentiment in the Time of COVID-19 with Adam Shapiro, Moritz Sudhof, and Dan Wilson

FRBSF Economic Letter 2020-08

Comparing News Sentiment in the Time of COVID-19 to the 2008 Financial Crisis with Adam Shapiro and Dan Wilson

FRBSF Blog Post May 2020

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