Seungmok Paik
Research Assistant Professor
School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University
smpaik@snu.ac.kr
I study the physical processes and future changes in extreme precipitation / extreme weather — and how AI can help us predict and attribute it in a changing climate.
News
Sep 2026 Our paper on East Asian summer extreme precipitation under net-zero CO₂ emissions was accepted at Science Advances.
Research Interests
Extreme precipitation - future projections and physical mechanisms
How will extreme precipitation change under continued global warming or CO₂ emission reductions such as net-zero pathways? Which synoptic- and mesoscale weather systems produce the extreme precipitation over East Asia and the monsoon regions, and how do these systems shape future projections of precipitation change?
AI-based prediction, attribution, and future projection
Developing diffusion models and AI emulators for high-resolution, probabilistic precipitation prediction — and applying them to attribute individual extreme events to human influence on climate and to examine how predictability may change in a warmer world.
Publications (as of September 2026)
In preparation
29. Paik, S., et al. Extreme event attribution based on diffusion models and AI emulators.
28. Paik, S., et al. Diffusion-based high-resolution precipitation prediction.
27. Pathaikara, A., et al. Exploring Physical Drivers of Future Increases in Tropical Cyclone-Induced Precipitation over the Arabian Sea and Associated Population Exposure.
26. Jin, Y., et al. Hysteresis in Moist Heatwave Characteristics over the Indian Subcontinent under a Carbon Dioxide Removal Scenario.
25. Paik, S., et al. East Asian Summer Synoptic-Scale Weather Feature Responses to Net-Zero Anthropogenic CO₂ Emission Scenario and Implications for Extreme Precipitation.
Published
24. Paik, S., D. Kim, S.-I. An, S.-E. Park, A. D. King, S.-K. Min, C. Liu, and J. Shin, (2026): Intensification of East Asian summer extreme precipitation under a net-zero anthropogenic CO₂ emission scenario. Science Advances, Accepted (Core Research Grants Type A: RS-2026-25475832)
23. Kim, Y., S.-K. Min, S.-I. An, S. Paik, and S. K. Mondal, (2026): Responses of extreme fire weather risks to CO₂ emission reductions and underlying mechanisms. Science Advances. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adw4705
22. Mondal, S. K., S.-I. An, S.-K. Min, T. Jiang, B. Su, S. Paik, and S.-K. Kim, (2025): Hysteresis and irreversibility of global drought patterns in response to CO₂ mitigation efforts. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ade608
21. Mandal, G., S.-I. An, J.-H. Park, K.-S. Yoon, C. Liu, and S. Paik, (2025): Northern Hemisphere sea ice variability in a transient CGCM simulation of the past 2.6 Ma. Nature Communications. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-55327-2
20. Paik, S., D. Kim, S.-I. An, H. Oh, J. Shin, B. B. Goswami, S.-K. Min, and S. K. Mondal, (2024) : Exploring causes of distinctive regional and subseasonal Indian summer monsoon precipitation responses to CO2 removal. npj Climate and Atmopsheric Science. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00858-0
19. Liu, C., S.-I. An, Z. Yan, S.-K. Kim, and S. Paik, (2024): Strong El Niño and La Niña precipitation—sea surface temperature sensitivity under a carbon removal scenario. Communications Earth & Environment. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01958-8
18. King, A. D., T. Ziehn, M. Chamberlain, A. Borowiak, J. Brown, L. Cassidy, A. Dittus, M. Grose, N. Maher, S. Paik, S. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, and A. Sengupta, (2024): Exploring climate stabilisation at different global warming levels in ACCESS-ESM-1.5. Earth System Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1353-2024
17. King, A. D., L. J. Harrington, E. Hawkins, S. Paik, R. Lieber, S.-K. Min, and A. R. Borowiak, (2024): Emergence of multivariate climate change signals. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad677f
16. Im, N., D. Kim, S.-I. An, S. Paik, S.-K. Kim, J. Shin, S.-K. Min, J.-S. Kug, and H. Oh, (2024) : Hysteresis of European summer precipitation under a symmetric CO₂ ramp-up and ramp-down pathway. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad52ad
15. Paik, S., S.-I. An, A. D. King, S.-K. Kim, and S.-K. Min, (2024): Understanding climate changes in East Asia and Europe based on spatial climate analogs. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad32e9
14. Paik, S., S.-I. An, S.-K. Min, A. D. King, and S.-K. Kim, (2023): Emergent constraints on future extreme precipitation intensification: from global to continental scales. Weather and Climate Extremes. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2023.100613
13. Paik, S., D. Kim, S.-I. An, and Y.-G. Ham, (2023): Constraining the first year of ice-free Arctic: Importance of regional perspective. Earth's Future. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF003313
12. Paik, S., S.-I. An, S.-K. Min, A. D. King, and J. Shin, (2023): Hysteretic behavior of global to regional monsoon area under CO₂ ramp-up and ramp-down. Earth's Future. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF003434
11. Mondal, S. K., S.-I. An, S.-K. Min, S.-K. Kim, J. Shin, S. Paik, N. Im, and C. Liu, (2023): Hysteresis and irreversibility of global extreme precipitation to anthropogenic CO₂ emission. Weather and Climate Extremes. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2023.100561
10. Paik, S., S.-K. Min, S.-W. Son, E.-P. Lim, S. McGregor, S.-I. An, J.-S. Kug, and S.-W. Yeh, (2023): Impact of volcanic eruptions on extratropical atmospheric circulations: review, revisit and future directions. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acd5e6
9. Paik, S., S.-K. Min, and S.-I. An, (2022): How explosive volcanic eruptions reshape daily precipitation distributions. Weather and Climate Extremes. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2022.100489
8. Paik, S., and S.-K. Min, (2020): Quantifying the anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to the observed spring snow-cover decline using the CMIP6 multimodel ensemble. Journal of Climate. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0002.1
7. Paik, S., S.-K. Min, X. Zhang, M. G. Donat, A. D. King, and Q. Sun, (2020): Determining the anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to the observed intensification of extreme precipitation. Geophysical Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086875
6. Paik, S., S.-K. Min, C. E. Iles, E. M. Fischer, and A. P. Schurer, (2020): Volcanic-induced global monsoon drying modulated by diverse El Niño responses. Science Advances. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aba1212
5. Nguyen, T.-H., S.-K. Min, S. Paik, and D. Lee, (2018): Time of emergence in regional precipitation changes: an updated assessment using the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. Climate Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4073-y
4. Paik, S., and S.-K. Min, (2018): Assessing the impact of volcanic eruptions on climate extremes using CMIP5 models. Journal of Climate. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0651.1
3. Paik, S., S.-K. Min, Y.-H. Kim, B.-M. Kim, H. Shiogama, and J. Heo, (2017): Attributing causes of 2015 record minimum sea-ice extent in the Sea of Okhotsk. Journal of Climate. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0587.1
2. Paik, S., and S.-K. Min, (2017): Climate responses to volcanic eruptions assessed from observations and CMIP5 multi-models. Climate Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3125-4
1. Min, S.-K., Y.-H. Kim, S. Paik, M.-K. Kim, and K.-O. Boo, (2015): Anthropogenic influence on the 2014 record-hot spring in Korea. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00079.1