Working papers

The (Other) China Shock and the Brazilian Agricultural Boom:  Cui Bono? [Job market paper] 

Abstract: This paper investigates how the Chinese demand shock has affected economic inequality in Brazilian municipalities (1985-2020). Exploiting fluctuations in the size of the pig stock in China for identification, it shows that the proceeds of the agricultural boom induced by China's rapid rise have been rather unequally distributed. Through a process of land consolidation, income gains have been mostly limited to the top deciles of the distribution, while the poorest segments of the Brazilian population tended to become worse off. Moreover, the more unequal a municipality, the greater the increases in deforestation and rural conflict as agriculture expanded.

The Speed of Aid: Strategic Urgency in International Emergency Relief (with A. Fuchs) [Working paper]

Abstract: Timely assistance is critical for effective emergency relief in the aftermath of natural disasters. This paper examines how strategic interests shape the speed of humanitarian aid decisions. By analyzing a trilateral panel of daily humanitarian aid decisions by 43 countries in response to 516 fast-onset natural disasters (2000-2022), we track donor decision-making as it unfolds, day by day, allowing us to identify patterns of interaction among donors. We document a bandwagon effect: donors accelerate their aid responses following peer commitments, particularly when they face strong trade competition. The more donors compete over export and import markets, the faster they react to one another's aid decisions. The results are driven by government-to-government aid and underscore the importance of recipient-specific lead donors as natural first movers. Our findings suggest that strategic rivalry—not coordination—shapes the timing of humanitarian assistance, even in domains typically viewed as guided by altruism.

In progress

Dual Ascent: Chinese Demand and Agrarian Elites (with J. Assunção and L. Barros)

The Environmental Footprint of Agricultural Supply Chains: The Role of Importing Countries

Access to Higher Education, Unemployment, and Political Resentment (with L. Barros, C. Ferraz, and M. Santos Silva)

Peer-reviewed

Siewers, S., Martínez-Zarzoso, I., and Baghdadi, L. (2024). Global Value Chains and Firms’ Environmental Performance. World Development, 173, 106395.

Other

Fuchs, A., and Siewers, S. (Forthcoming). International Humanitarian Assistance. Elgar Encyclopedia of Public Choice (edited by R. Jong-A-Pin and C. Bjørnskov).

Cameron, E.,  Delius, A., Devercelli, A., Pape, U., and Siewers, S. (2022). The Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic for Children in Kenya. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper WPS10003.

Fuchs, A., and Siewers, S. (2020). Thoughts on the Speed of International COVID-19 Aid. DEval's +Evidence Blog.