Offshoring and Inflation
with D. Comin
Abstract: Did trade integration suppress inflation in the United States? Conventional wisdom says “yes,” based on the disinflationary supply-side impacts of trade. We argue that these supply-side arguments are incomplete, because trade integration also influences aggregate demand. Our analysis leverages two facts: trade integration was a long-lasting, phased-in shock, and offshoring accounts for a large share of it. Given these facts, we show trade integration is inflationary in conventional New Keynesian models. This result continues to hold when we account for US trade deficits, the pro-competitive effects of trade on domestic markups, standard features of medium scale models, and cross-sector heterogeneity in trade integration.
The current draft is an updated version of NBER Working Paper 27957. May 2021 draft here.