Congratulations to the winners of 17WCEE blind prediction contest on tsunami inundation and impact

It is our pleasure to announce the winners of the 17WCEE Blind Prediction Contest on Tsunami Inundation and Impact.


The winners of the Best Performance Award, the Outstanding Technical Achievement Award, and the Excellent Young Challenger Award are as follows:

*We gave the Young Challenging Award to the team whose representative is eligible.

Best Performance Award

The winner is the team “Taisei Corporation.The members are Takayuki Hashimoto, Maki Chiwata, and Yukinobu Oda from Taisei Corporation. Their predictions of the four components were in good agreement with the experimental results in both Tsunami A and B. The most excellent point is that their accuracy of the time series was exceptionally high in all the components compared to the other final candidates. They selected the suitable method and settings that can reproduce the experiments including soliton fissions.

Outstanding Technical Achievement Award

The award winner is Tatsuto Kimura from Tokyo Electric Power Services Co., Ltd. The outstanding point is the computational cost which was extremely lower than the others. Although he used the conventional two-dimensional nonlinear shallow water equation model, the predictions agree well with the experiments because the initial parameters and settings were skillfully set based on the experienced knowledge. It is also notable that the wave pressures were predicted in relatively good accuracy by the summation of dynamic and hydrostatic pressures that are estimated by inundation depth and velocity.

Excellent Young Challenger Award

The award winner is Benedetto Di Paolo, the team “IH Cantabria” from Institute de Hidráulica Ambiental de la Universidad de Cantabria. The other members are Javier L.Lara, Gabriel Barajas, María Maza, Alessandro Romano, Iñigo Aniel Quiroga, and Íñigo J. Losada. They tried to apply a two-dimensional and three-dimensional coupling model and their predictions show good agreement with the experimental results of water level, inundation depth, and velocity. We expect further improvements on the accuracy of their coupling model.

The participants applied various methods to predict tsunami inundation and impacts; the two-dimensional nonlinear shallow water equation models, the Boussinesq equation type models, the three-dimensional non-hydrostatic shallow water equation models, the three-dimensional two-phase flow models, and the particle method SPH. The organizers statistically graded the predicted results of the four components, namely, maximum water level, inundation depth, velocity and pressure. Total score of accuracy is given by the arithmetic average of the four components and the lower score implies the more accurate predictions in this contest. Consequently, the top eight-scores were almost the same and much lower than others. Therefore, the judging committee selected the winner of the Best Performance Award from the eight candidates with the excellent scores, based on the time series of the four components.

We found that OpenFOAM and the two-dimensional equations were predominant in the contest, thanks to the efforts to improve them. Meanwhile, other methods, such as particle methods, have been developed and we expect continuous developments and improvements on various methods.

We look forward to our next contest.

The technical summary of the contest can be downloaded from here.

17WCEE Tsunami Blind Prediction Contest Judging Subcommittee

We sincerely appreciate 14 participants in performing simulations, analyzing and discussing their results, and summarizing their technical reports. There are the following six individuals, six teams, and two anonymous participants:

(a) Individual participants (Name, affiliation)

Daniel Shigueo Morikawa (Kyushu University)

Fumitaka Ishihara (UNIC Corporation)

Taiga Makino (Kyushu University)

Tatsuto Kimura (Tokyo Electric Power Services Co., Ltd.)

Yoshinori Shigihara (National Defense Academy)

Yu Chida (Port and Airport Research Institute)

(b) Team participants

The letters from the judging subcommittee can be downloaded from here.