The Ethanol Price Trend in the second quarter of 2026 (Q2 2026) showed a clear difference between markets supplied by the United States and those linked to Brazil. From April to June, ethanol prices increased in most markets receiving supplies from the United States, while prices declined in Brazil and several countries importing Brazilian ethanol.Β
The main reasons behind these movements were changes in supply availability, export demand, and purchasing activity across international markets. US ethanol prices increased as domestic supply remained tight and export demand stayed firm. In contrast, Brazil had sufficient sugarcane-based ethanol available, putting downward pressure on export prices.Β
June brought a further change in market direction, with prices falling in most US-linked markets and declining more sharply in several Brazil-linked markets. These developments made Q2 2026 an important period for understanding global ethanol prices, market movements, and the factors that may influence future price changes.
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The global ethanol market followed two different paths during Q2 2026. Prices depended largely on the country of origin and the supply conditions in the exporting market. This difference was clearly visible in international trade, where US-origin ethanol generally became more expensive while Brazilian-origin ethanol moved lower.
In the United States, limited supply and steady export demand supported higher prices. Buyers in several importing countries continued to purchase ethanol for fuel blending and industrial uses. As a result, higher US export prices were passed on to international buyers, increasing import costs in many regions.
Brazil experienced a different situation. The availability of sugarcane-based ethanol remained comfortable, giving international buyers access to a more plentiful supply. At the same time, softer export demand added pressure to prices. These conditions caused Brazilian export prices to decline during the quarter.
The difference between these two origins shows why the global ethanol market cannot be understood through a single price movement. Even when the same product is traded internationally, its price can vary depending on production conditions, export availability, shipping arrangements, and buyer requirements.
The United States was one of the main sources of upward price movement during Q2 2026. The export price of anhydrous ethanol on an FOB Houston basis increased by approximately 12.94% over the quarter.
The increase was mainly linked to tight domestic supply and firm export demand. When the amount of ethanol available for sale becomes limited, buyers may need to compete more actively for available volumes. This can encourage sellers to maintain higher offers, especially when overseas demand remains steady.
FOB Houston prices climbed through much of the quarter, reflecting these market conditions. Higher export prices also influenced import markets that depended on US-origin ethanol.
However, the upward trend did not continue without interruption. In June 2026, US ethanol prices declined by around 3.31% as buyers moderated their purchasing activity. This correction suggested that some buyers became more cautious after prices had risen during the earlier part of the quarter.
The June decline did not erase the overall quarterly increase. Instead, it showed how quickly market sentiment can change when buyers adjust their purchasing plans.
India recorded the strongest increase among the listed US-origin import markets during Q2 2026. The price of anhydrous ethanol imported from the United States on a CIF Nhava Sheva basis increased by approximately 16.83%.
The main reason was the rise in US export prices. As ethanol became more expensive at the point of export, the increase passed through to Indian import prices. Steady demand from fuel blending and industrial solvent buyers also supported the market.
For importers, this kind of price movement can affect procurement budgets and purchasing schedules. When prices rise quickly, buyers may compare available supply options more carefully and consider whether to purchase immediately or wait for a possible correction.
In June, ethanol prices in India declined by around 0.78%. This was a relatively small decrease compared with the earlier quarterly increase, suggesting that the market remained firm despite some moderation in buying activity.
India's market also highlights the importance of understanding the product's origin. US-origin ethanol became more expensive during the quarter, while Brazilian-origin ethanol imported into India followed a different direction.
The price of Brazilian-origin ethanol in India declined by approximately 0.75% during Q2 2026. In June, it fell by a further 5.79%. This difference demonstrates how the source of supply can influence the cost of the same broad product in an importing market.
European markets also experienced different movements depending on whether ethanol originated in the United States or Brazil.
Among the listed US-origin markets, the Netherlands recorded a quarterly increase of approximately 15.09% on a CIF Rotterdam basis. Belgium followed with a rise of around 13.94% on a CIF Antwerp basis, while the United Kingdom recorded an increase of approximately 13.03% on a CIF Immingham basis. Germany also saw prices rise by around 11.23% on a CIF Hamburg basis.
These increases reflected the impact of stronger US export prices on European import costs. Steady demand from fuel blending and industrial users helped maintain price support.
June brought an interesting difference within the region. While Germany's prices fell by around 6.16%, the Netherlands recorded a further increase of approximately 0.92%, and Belgium saw prices rise by around 0.41%. The United Kingdom also recorded a small increase of around 0.77%.
These exceptions suggest that local buying conditions and import demand can influence short-term price movements even when markets share a common supply origin.
Brazilian-origin ethanol followed a weaker pattern in Europe. Prices declined by approximately 6.14% in the Netherlands and 5.54% in Belgium during the quarter. In June, prices fell further by around 3.29% in the Netherlands and 4.81% in Belgium.
The European experience during Q2 2026 shows that buyers need to consider both international supply conditions and the availability of ethanol from alternative origins when evaluating prices.
Asian markets importing US-origin ethanol generally recorded higher prices during Q2 2026. South Korea saw an increase of approximately 12.55%, while Singapore recorded a rise of around 10.24%. Taiwan's prices increased by approximately 8.50%, and Thailand recorded a gain of around 7.53%.
The increases were largely connected to higher US export prices. As importers purchased ethanol from the United States, the rise in FOB Houston valuations passed through to delivered import prices.
June, however, brought declines across most of these markets. Prices fell by around 3.01% in South Korea, 4.01% in Singapore, 9.30% in Taiwan, and 6.22% in Thailand.
Taiwan experienced one of the sharpest June corrections among the listed US-linked Asian markets. This decline suggests that short-term purchasing decisions can create noticeable price changes even after a strong quarterly increase.
Brazilian-origin ethanol moved lower in the region. South Korea recorded a quarterly decline of approximately 6.94%, while Singapore saw prices fall by around 7.18%. Japan's prices declined by approximately 6.38%.
In June, Brazilian-origin ethanol prices fell further by around 3.86% in South Korea, 3.74% in Singapore, and 4.63% in Japan.
The difference between US-origin and Brazilian-origin ethanol was therefore a major feature of Asian market activity during the quarter.
Outside Europe and Asia, several markets importing US-origin ethanol also experienced increases.
Saudi Arabia recorded a quarterly rise of approximately 12.08%, while Egypt saw prices increase by around 12.58%. Colombia recorded an increase of approximately 11.16%, and Indonesia's prices rose by around 11.54%.
Canada experienced an increase of approximately 11.57%, while Chile recorded a rise of around 11.96%. Mexico's prices increased by approximately 9.85%, and the Philippines saw an increase of around 12.08%.
Peru recorded a more moderate quarterly increase of approximately 6.69%.
These movements reflected the influence of firm US export prices on importing markets. Buyers continued to require ethanol for fuel blending and industrial applications, while tighter US supply limited the availability of lower-priced export volumes.
June corrections varied considerably. Prices fell by around 13.19% in Peru, 7.37% in Mexico, 5.71% in Indonesia, and 5.61% in Chile. The Philippines recorded a decline of approximately 3.47%, while Canada saw prices decrease by around 2.13%.
These figures show that a quarterly increase does not necessarily mean prices will keep rising every month. Importers may change purchasing volumes in response to higher costs, inventory levels, and their expectations about future market conditions.
Brazil moved in the opposite direction from the United States during Q2 2026. The export price of anhydrous ethanol on an FOB Santos basis declined by approximately 6.74% over the quarter.
The main reason was the availability of ample sugarcane-based ethanol. When supply is sufficient, sellers may face greater competition to secure export orders. If export demand is also softer, prices can come under additional pressure.
This was the situation in Brazil during the quarter. Export valuations eased as the market remained well supplied, making Brazilian-origin ethanol comparatively less expensive for international buyers.
In June, prices fell by a further 5.33%. This additional decline indicated that supply conditions continued to weigh on the market at the end of the quarter.
The decline in Brazil's export price also influenced importing countries. The Philippines recorded a quarterly decrease of approximately 7.26% in Brazilian-origin ethanol prices, while Japan saw a decline of around 6.38%. Singapore recorded a decrease of approximately 7.18%, and South Korea's prices fell by around 6.94%.
India and Belgium also recorded lower prices for Brazilian-origin ethanol, declining by approximately 0.75% and 5.54%, respectively.
The continued availability of Brazilian supply gave buyers in these markets a different pricing experience from that of importers relying on US-origin ethanol.
An Ethanol Price Chart for Q2 2026 would show two distinct trends. The first would be an upward movement in US-origin ethanol prices across most importing markets. The second would be a downward movement in Brazilian-origin ethanol prices.
The chart would also highlight the correction that occurred in June. Most US-linked markets recorded monthly declines after rising during the quarter. The Netherlands, Belgium, and the United Kingdom were notable exceptions, posting modest additional increases.
Brazil-linked markets generally continued to decline in June, reflecting the effect of ample supply.
For buyers, traders, and industrial users, a price chart provides a simple way to understand these movements. It helps identify whether prices are rising consistently, falling over time, or experiencing short-term corrections.
However, a chart should not be considered in isolation. Price changes need to be understood alongside supply availability, export demand, country of origin, and the basis on which the price is reported.
For example, FOB Houston represents an export price at the US shipping point, while CIF prices at destinations such as Nhava Sheva, Rotterdam, and Busan reflect import valuations that include freight and insurance under the applicable trade terms. These prices are related, but they are not directly interchangeable.
The Ethanol Price Index provides a broader way to understand price movements across different markets. Instead of looking at only one country, an index can help explain how prices are changing across several regions and supply origins.
During Q2 2026, the main feature of the global ethanol market was the difference between US and Brazilian supply conditions. The US market experienced tighter availability and firm export demand, while Brazil had ample sugarcane-based supply and softer export demand.
These differences influenced import prices in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and the Americas.
A global index may therefore conceal important differences if it is considered without looking at individual markets. An increase in one group of markets can occur at the same time as a decline in another.
For this reason, businesses should consider the overall index alongside country-level prices and the origin of the ethanol being purchased. This approach offers a clearer picture of actual market conditions.
The Ethanol Price Forecast for the coming period will depend on how supply and demand develop in the main producing and importing markets. The movements recorded in Q2 2026 provide useful clues, but they do not guarantee that the same trends will continue.
Several factors deserve attention.
1. US supply availability
If US ethanol supply remains tight and export demand stays firm, prices may continue to receive support. However, improved availability or weaker export purchasing could reduce upward pressure.
2. Brazilian sugarcane-based supply
Brazil's ample supply was a major reason for lower prices during Q2 2026. If availability remains comfortable and export demand stays soft, prices could face further pressure. A change in supply conditions could alter this direction.
3. Importer purchasing activity
Buyers may reduce or delay purchases when prices rise quickly. This can contribute to short-term corrections, as seen in several US-linked markets during June. Stronger purchasing activity could have the opposite effect.
4. Fuel blending and industrial demand
Ethanol is used in fuel blending and various industrial applications. Changes in demand from these users can influence how much product buyers need and how actively they compete for available supplies.
5. Freight and import costs
International prices are also affected by the cost of moving ethanol from the exporting country to the destination market. Freight, insurance, and other trade-related expenses can influence delivered import valuations.
6. Differences between supply origins
The gap between US-origin and Brazilian-origin ethanol is especially important. Buyers comparing supply options need to consider the full delivered cost rather than relying only on the export price.
Based on the Q2 2026 pattern, the market outlook remains dependent on the balance between available supply and purchasing demand. A reliable forecast should therefore consider new market information rather than assume that the second-quarter direction will continue unchanged.
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