“You can’t stand on the beach of the sea of uncertainty with the waves lapping at your ankles. 

You have to jump into the sea and stick your head underwater and blow some bubbles.” 

- Andrew Gelman

 I am an Associate Professor at the University of New South Wales. My research interests lie in the intersection of Bayesian statistics, econometrics and development economics. 

I most often do applied econometrics aimed at measuring generalisability and quantifying uncertainty around our knowledge base in development economics and economics more broadly.  I focus on Bayesian modelling of treatment effect heterogeneity at multiple levels within data sets and literatures. 

You can usually find me on twitter or bsky.  I am now also writing occasionally a blog/newsletter/thing where I put my longer-form thoughts about life, the universe, and uncertainty in the social sciences.

My papers are below.  If you have a question about the code or data for any published paper please email me at r dot meager at unsw.edu.au

An R package 'baggr' for Bayesian evidence aggregation, co-authored with Witold Wiecek, is here on CRAN, or here on github, and a super short easy explainer is here

My CV is here (but less frequently updated than this website). 

My code and data are here.  

Any announcements are here. 

Publications and Accepted Pre-Registrations

Working Papers 

Selected Work In Progress

"A Multifaceted Approach to Poverty Alleviation in Six Countries: A Bayesian Hierarchical Analysis of the Graduation Program" with Andrew Gelman, Dean Karlan, Chris Udry and Witold Wiecek

"Data Transforms Are Models" with Edward Jee