Tutorial on Predicting Human Decision-Making: Tools of the Trade


Human decision-making often transcends our formal models of ``rationality". Designing intelligent agents that interact proficiently with people necessitates the modeling of human behavior and the prediction of their decisions.

In this 3.5 hour tutorial, we will focus on the prediction of human decision-making and its use in designing intelligent human-aware automated agents of varying natures; from purely conflicting interaction settings (e.g., security and games) to fully cooperative interaction settings (e.g., advise provision, human rehabilitation). We will present computational representations, algorithms and empirical methodologies for meeting the challenges that arise from the above tasks in both a single interaction (one-shot) and repeated interaction settings. The tutorial will also review recent advances, current challenges and future directions for the field.

In the course of the tutorial we will present techniques and ideas using machine learning, game-theoretical and general AI concepts. The basis for these concepts will be covered as part of the tutorial, however, a basic familiarity with the above concepts is encouraged.

Tutorial Outline

  • Motivation and examples: Agents for human rehabilitation, human-robot interaction, automated advice provision, argumentation, security, negotiation etc.
  • The basics of human decision-making: decision theory and game theory, bounded rationality, historical and contemporary computational models of human behavior from behavioral economics, cognitive psychology and AI. Experimental evidence for human decision-making and behavior and they are different from what we usually consider to be rational.
  • Tools of the trade: Normative vs. descriptive approaches for predicting human decision-making, computational models and the integration of normative theories from different disciplines (e.g., social science and economics) to enhance classic prediction methods.
  • From prediction to action: combining human decision-making prediction methods in the design of intelligent agents that interact proficiently with people. Frameworks, methodologies and applications to security, games, argumentation, advice provision, rehabilitation, human-robot interaction, personal assistants and negotiation.
  • Additional topics and challenges: implicit vs. explicit interaction settings, enhancing prediction capabilities using additional modalities (e.g., facial expressions), transfer learning of decision policies across domains and people, the complexity of acquiring (reliable) human data, minority cases in human-generated data.

Tutorial Materials



Ariel Rosenfeld

Ariel Rosenfeld is currently completing his PhD in Computer Science at Bar-Ilan University, Israel. He obtained a BSc in Computer Science and Economics, graduated `magna cum laude', from Tel-Aviv University, Israel. Rosenfeld's research focus is Human-Agent Interaction and he has published on the topic at top venues such as AAAI, IJCAI, AAMAS and ECAI. Rosenfeld has a rich lecturing background, spanning over a decade, and he is currently acting as a lecturer at Bar-Ilan University and Ben-Gurion University, Israel.

arielros1 at gmail dot com

Department of Computer Science

Bar-Ilan University, Israel


Sarit Kraus

Sarit Kraus is Professor of Computer Science at Bar-Ilan University, Israel and an Adjunct Professor at the University of Maryland. She has focused her research on intelligent agents and multi-agent systems. In particular, she developed Diplomat, the first automated agent that negotiated proficiently with people. Kraus has received the EMET Prize for her expertise and contributions to artificial intelligence, the IJCAI `Computers and Thought Award', the ACM SIGART Agents Research award, and the prestigious Advanced ERC Grant. She also received a special commendation from the city of Los Angeles, together with Professor Tambe, Professor Ordonez and their students, for the creation of the ARMOR security scheduling system. Kraus has published over 300 papers in leading journals and major conferences and has presented many invited talks and tutorials, including a recent tutorial at AAMAS 2015 on automated negotiation with people.

sarit at macs dot biu dot ac dot il

Department of Computer Science

Bar-Ilan University, Israel