Distributed Resource Modeling and Planning

Kwok Len Wei

Abstract

Historically, electricity has been generated using central generating plants and distributed through an extensive transmission and distribution network. Utilities oftern were state-owned monopolies and enjoyed many benefits in the absence of competitors. Recently, as electrical utilities worldwide move towards restructuring and rationalization, they faced increased competition. Many utilities have begun to look into distributed resources (DR) as a means to help them stay afloat in such turbulent times. However, evaluation of DR alternatives are complex planning issues that involves a high degree of uncertainty.

The project examined and studied the issues of DR and analysed the DR planning problem under uncertainty. There are two components that make up DR, demand side management (DSM) programs which are aimed at electricity deman reduction and distributed generation (DG) which consists of alternative technologies such as photovoltaics, small combustion engines and so on. This study focused only on DG.

Based on an earlier proposed cost-effectiveness evaluation model of a DG investment project under uncertainty, we analysed the model in greater detail and also verify it. Sensitivity analysis was performed. The results showed that load growth and SO₂emission are most sensitive to the expected output. In addition, the effects of varying discount rates and other enviornmental pollutants such as CO₂, NO_X and PM10 particulates were also studied. To gain a greater understanding of the impacts of varying the multiple variables simultaneously, further sensitivity analysis was performed.