Computer-Aided Decision Modeling Using Influence Diagrams

Yee Boon Cheow

Abstract

The rapid development of the computer technology has led to increasingly more powerful and inexpensive computer systems, and has made computer an easily accessible tool for decision making. Over the years, the influence diagram has been shown to be an effective means of communication among decision makers and analysts. It has also been proved to be a new "tool of thought" that can facilitate the formulation, assessment and the evaluation of decision problems in a computer-based decision making environment.

Current decision analysis software, although has succeeded in constructing and evaluating influence diagram, requires the user to have a certain amount of knowledge in the area of influence diagram to formulate the decision problem accurately. These software still lack in their ability to provide adequate support for the framing of decision problems, namely enumerating feasible actions, outcomes, uncertainties, and preferences.

In this project, methodological tools for helping decision makers to formulate problems using influence diagram will be developed. Different methods and strategies for dynamic construction of influence diagram models from a knowledge will be investigated and studied. A methodology will then be developed to facilitate the construction of influence diagram models from a knowledge base. To reinforce this methodology, a computer program, based on the methodology, has been written and tested on a number of sample applications. The project will conclude with a discussion on what are methods and strategies that are incorporated into the methodology and an analysis on the algorithms developed based on this methodology.