An Iterative Policy Analysis Framework for Enhancing Decarbonization Strategies in Singapore: Synergies between System Dynamics Modelling and SWOT Analysis

Huang Siyuan

Abstract

The research proposes a framework that leverages the synergies between System Dynamics (SD) and SWOT analysis and lead to an iterative approach for policy analysis from a strategic perspective. Use of this framework is elaborated with a focused study on decarbonization strategies in Singapore, especially reduction of carbon emission. A SD model is first developed around key contributors to Singapore’s carbon emissions and key mobilizers of decarbonization to evaluate the short to mid-term (10-30 years) effectiveness of the current policies. Policies evaluated include areas on Carbon Tax, Solar Adoption and EV Adoption. Then, a review on latest external changes including impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, together with insights from SD modelling, has been summarized in the SWOT matrix to provide a holistic view of Singapore’s decarbonization progress as well as opportunities and challenges awaiting. Based on the analysis, Singapore has achieved great progress on building its own transition roadmap, it is appropriate to lean towards a Progressive strategic position which improves current weaknesses by using external opportunities. Singapore needs to keep its strengths and continue its efforts in energy efficiency improvement and application of emerging technologies. At the same time, it is worth addressing the lack of transitional support from financial, labour and infrastructure perspective and focusing on energy transition to re-energize its economy in the post-pandemic period. Moreover, Singapore needs to initiate more carbon credits projects and develop a mature service system that facilitates the carbon market. Policies should also enhance other international collaborations for knowledge and resources sharing, which help to address domestic constraints.