Integrating Technical Analysis and Public Values in Public Infrastructure Development Projects

Lim Ai Ping

Abstract

With a population which places increasing emphasis on social comfort, decision makers in the public sector are finding that the existing framework is inadequate, as it is unable to accurately account for social impacts.

In this report, a Public Infrastructure System Conceptualization (PISC) framework consisting of 4 steps is proposed to provide an integrated approach for decision making. In the first step, alternatives available for a public infrastructure system will be identified by the decision maker. Next, using the AHP method, a base case decision is selected based on the conflicting qualitative criteria the decision maker has determined. The third step employs a special methodology using network modeling to add value to the system by embedding flexibility within the system. In this novel method, three parameters – combined impact, combined likelihood and sensitivity, are used to describe each design variable. Design variables with high values in these parameters will represent the areas where flexibility can be incorporated into the system. Finally, the last step uses Monte Carlo Simulation to simulate and select the optimal decision based on the monetary value. A case study on Singapore’s transportation system is then used to demonstrate the PISC approach.

Results show that this proposed approach allows for a more comprehensive way to evaluate qualitative and quantitative factors concurrently. It is also able to identify flexible opportunities more systematically using quantitative measurements and provides evidence that a flexible design, though having a higher initial investment, will ultimately lead to overall cost savings in the long run.

All in all, this PISC framework is shown to be a straightforward framework which enables decision makers to make a more effective decision.