Multi-Criteria Analysis of Fuel Options for Electricity Generation in Singapore

Low Chin Hwa

Abstract

With the foreseeable decline of petroleum reserves around the world, the race is on for nations that rely heavily on petroleum in driving its economy to study the possibilities of adopting other fuel alternatives. The electricity sector in Singapore needs to reconsider the future of the current choice of petroleum used in generating electricity. With petroleum being the primary electricity generating fuel used in Singapore at the present, the onus is on the relevant government bodies to research on alternative fuels in order for Singapore to continue to enjoy a steady supply of electricity amidst increasing demands.

The objective of this study is to highlight a list of possible fuel alternatives and select an optimal fuel alternative from the many options identified, aided by the use of multi-criteria analysis that Singapore can gradually convert to from now to the year 2030. A dissertation done in the previous year has in fact, already explored this. This study aims to review the earlier efforts and to extend the multi-criteria analysis techniques to more than one technique as explored by in the previous dissertation, so as to test the consistency of the results.

The fuel alternatives studied include both conventional fuel and renewables. A literature survey on the various aspects of the alternative fuels is conducted where it will be used for the analysis in determining the optimal fuel alternative later on.

Factors that need to be considered when choosing a fuel alternative for generating electricity in Singapore have been identified as: supply, technology, cost, emission, safety and efficiency. The AHP technique is chosen as structuring the problem into different levels and then analysing each level can simplify the problem. Following the implementation of the AHP analysis, the optimal fuel alternative is found to be a combination of natural gas as the main fuel with oil as the secondary fuel.

To determine the consistency of the results obtained from AHP, the ELECTRE II and IV method were chosen, and applied for the problem with the same fuel alternative yielded. A sensitivity analysis is done to identify which of the factors will affect the ranking of the alternatives the most and Supply criterion was found to be the most sensitive attribute.

In conclusion, a better alternative than the current fuel choice - which corresponds to an earlier study - has been identified for use into the year 2030 through this systematic study. Future work and refinements to study the fuel alternatives can be based on this framework.