Energy Options for Electricity Generation in Singapore

Su Chun Wei

Abstract

With the rapid decline of fossil oil reserves around the world, the electricity sector in Singapore need to reconsider the future of the current choice of fuel used in generating electricity. With fossil oil being the main electricity generating fuel used in Singapore at present, fuel alternatives need to be sought and studied ino order for Singapore to continue to enjoy a steady supply of electricity amidst increasing demands.

The objective of this study is to select an optimal fuel alternative from the many options identified. The scope of this study will focus on Singapore in the future, Year 2030. The fuel alternatives studied include both conventional fuel and renewables. A literature survey is conducted on the fuel alternatives and a study of decision-making techniques is done, where it will be used for the analysis of the optimal fuel alternative later on.

The electricity requirement for Singapore in Year 2030 is projected to provide the base case consideration. This is achieved by projecting the energy coefficient based on historical data. Factors that need to be considered when choosing a fuel alternative for generating electricity are identified as: supply, technology, cost, emission, safety and efficiency. The AHP technique is chosen as the problem can be simplified by structuring it into different levels and then analyzing each level.

Following the conduct of the AHP analysis, the optimal fuel alternative is identified. It is found that the combination of natural gas as a main fuel with oil as the secondary fuel is the optimal alternative. A sensitivity analysis is done to identify which of the factors will affect the ranking of the alternatives most. Supply is found to be the most sensitive factor. In conclusion, a better alternative than the current fuel choice is identified through this systematic study. Future work and refinements to study the fuel alternatives can be based on this framework.