Peter Tillmann

Current research

"Monetary Policy Spillovers: Is This Time Different?", with Hongyi Chen, in progress.

"Inflation Disagreement and Monetary Transmission in Korea", with Boreum Kwak and Seri Shim, in progress.

"The FOMC Attention Cycle", with David Finck, March 2024 [paper].

"The Inflationary Effects of Global Supply Chain Shocks: Evidence from Swedish Microdata", with David Finck and Mathias Klein, February 2024 [paper].

"The Macroeconomic Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions", with David Finck, April 2023 [paper] [SUERF Policy Brief].

"Fiscal Policy in the Bundestag: Textual Analysis and Macroeconomic Effects", with Albina Latifi, Viktoriia Naboka-Krell and Peter Winker, revised version, April 2024 [paper].

"The Impact of Monetary Policy on Non-Bank Financial Institutions: New Evidence", with Anisa Tiza Mimun, July 2023. Featured in [Börsenzeitung].

"Not all ECB Meetings are Created Equal", with Sinem Kandemir, May 2023 [paper].

"Household Expectations and Dissent Among Policymakers", with Moritz Grebe, January 2024 [paper].

“Monetary Policy Effectiveness and Diverging Communication”, with Andreas Walter, January 2020 [(dormant) paper][appendix]. Featured in [Les Echos].

Other writings

"Die Fed und die Schwellenländer: Was diesmal anders ist", Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, March 06, 2024 [article].

"Ukrainekrieg: Was sagen mehr als 8 Mio. Tweets?", with Moritz Grebe and Sinem Kandemir, Wirtschaftsdienst, July 2023  [article].

"Europäische Zentralbank: Transmission Protection Instrument", Wirtschaftsdienst, August 2022 [article].

Selected publications since 2019 (see Google Scholar for more)

"The Asymmetric Effect of Supply Chain Pressure on Inflation", Economics Letters, 2024 [paper].

"Uncertainty about the War in Ukraine: Measurement and Effects on the German Economy", with Moritz Grebe and Sinem Kandemir, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 2024 [paper] [data: Ukraine Uncertainty Index] [article Wirtschaftsdienst].

"Lockdown Spillovers", with Hongyi Chen, Journal of International Money and Finance, 2023 [paper].

"Macroeconomic Surprises and the Demand for Information about Monetary Policy", International Journal of Central Banking, 2023 [paper][appendix].

"The Role of Global and Domestic Shocks For Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from Asia", with David Finck, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2022 [paper][appendix].

"Financial Markets and Dissent in the ECB's Governing Council", European Economic Review, 2021, [paper] [appendix].

"Pandemic Shocks and Household Spending", with David Finck, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2022 [paper][appendix].

“Mortgage Debt and Time-Varying Monetary Policy Transmission”, with David Finck and Jörg Schmidt, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2023[paper][appendix].

"COVID-19 and Financial Markets: A Panel Analysis for European Countries", with Jens Klose, Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, 2021 .

"Monetary Policy Uncertainty in China", with Hongyi Chen, Journal of International Money and Finance, 2021.

“Monetary Policy Uncertainty and the Response of the Yield Curve to Policy Shocks”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2020 [paper][appendix].

“Rating Changes and Portfolio Flows: Evidence from Active and Passive Funds”, with Christina E. Bannier and Thomas Heyden, Economics Letters, 2019.

“The Effect of Diverging Communication: The Case of the ECB and the Bundesbank”, with Andreas Walter, Economics Letters, 2019.

“International Capital Flows, External Assets and Output Volatility”, with Mathias Hoffmann and Michael Krause, Journal of International Economics, 2019.