Peter Tillmann

Current research

Safe-Haven Bond Flows and Fiscal Policy Disagreement, with Jana Röder, Peter Winker and Jinyeong Yun, March 2026 [paper].

The Inflationary Effects of Global Supply Chain Shocks: Evidence from Swedish Microdata, with David Finck and Mathias Klein, December 2025 [paper].

Inflation Expectations and a Conservative Central Banker: Evidence from a Natural Experiment, with Moritz Grebe, February 2026 [paper].

Monetary Policy and the Fiscal Talk in the Bundestag, May 2025 [paper].

The Emotions of Monetary Policy, with Mamadou Lamine Barry, Brenton Joey Bruns, Sinem Kandemir, Jens Klose and Victor Smirnov, June 2025 [paper] [covered by Financial Times (FT alphaville), Reuters, Central Banking].

Geopolitics in the Boardroom: How German Managers Respond to the War in Ukraine, with Moritz Grebe and Sinem Kandemir, October 2024 [paper][data] [covered by FAZ].

Gains from Gunboats: U.S. Aircraft Carriers and Financial Markets in East Asia, with Jinyeong Yun, October 2025 [paper].

Not all ECB Meetings are Created Equal, with Sinem Kandemir, August 2024 [paper].

Inflation Disagreement and Monetary Transmission in Korea, with Boreum Kwak and Seri Shim, June 2024 [paper], Macroeconomic Dynamics, accepted.

The FOMC Attention Cycle, with David Finck, March 2024 [paper].

The Macroeconomic Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions, with David Finck, April 2023 [paper].

The Impact of Monetary Policy on Non-Bank Financial Institutions: New Evidence, with Anisa Tiza Mimun, July 2023. Featured in [Börsenzeitung].

Other writing

Digital, nachhaltig, drittmittelstark: Die Ausschreibungen von VWL-Professuren in Deutschland, with Kathrin Stock and Andreas Walter, Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, 2025.

Die Fed und die Schwellenländer: Was diesmal anders ist, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, March 06, 2024 [article].

Ukrainekrieg: Was sagen mehr als 8 Mio. Tweets?, with Moritz Grebe and Sinem Kandemir, Wirtschaftsdienst, July 2023  [article].

Europäische Zentralbank: Transmission Protection Instrument, Wirtschaftsdienst, August 2022 [article].

Selected publications since 2019 (see Google Scholar for more)

Disagreement about Fiscal Policy, with Albina Latifi, Viktoriia Naboka-Krell and Peter Winker, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, forthcoming, [paper] [covered by FAZ, Süddeutsche Zeitung].

Debating the Bundeswehr, with Albina Latifi, Viktoriia Naboka-Krell and Peter Winker, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 2026 [paper].

Monetary Policy Spillovers: Is This Time Different?, with Hongyi Chen, Journal of International Money and Finance, 2025.

Household Expectations and Dissent Among Policymakers, with Moritz Grebe, European Journal of Political Economy, 2025 [paper].

Fiscal Policy in the Bundestag: Textual Analysis and Macroeconomic Effects, with Albina Latifi, Viktoriia Naboka-Krell and Peter Winker, European Economic Review, 2024 [paper][appendix].

The Asymmetric Effect of Supply Chain Pressure on Inflation, Economics Letters, 2024 [paper].

Uncertainty about the War in Ukraine: Measurement and Effects on the German Economy, with Moritz Grebe and Sinem Kandemir, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 2024 [paper] [data].

Macroeconomic Surprises and the Demand for Information about Monetary Policy, International Journal of Central Banking, 2023 [paper][appendix].

The Role of Global and Domestic Shocks For Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from Asia, with David Finck, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2022 [paper][appendix].

Financial Markets and Dissent in the ECB's Governing Council, European Economic Review, 2021, [paper] [appendix].

Pandemic Shocks and Household Spending, with David Finck, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2022 [paper][appendix].

Mortgage Debt and Time-Varying Monetary Policy Transmission, with David Finck and Jörg Schmidt, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2023 [paper][appendix].

Monetary Policy Uncertainty and the Response of the Yield Curve to Policy Shocks, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2020 [paper][appendix].

International Capital Flows, External Assets and Output Volatility, with Mathias Hoffmann and Michael Krause, Journal of International Economics, 2019.