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The 2023 Energy Outlook, published in January, uses three scenarios: Accelerated, Net Zero and New Momentum, to discuss the outlook for different fuels and energy sources, such as oil, natural gas, renewables and low-carbon hydrogen.
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The overall threat of significant flooding this spring is low due to above-normal temperatures and historically-low snowpack. Moderate flooding is expected in climatologically flood-prone areas of the Midwest and South. The overall lack of snowpack and significant winter precipitation, coupled with the current outlook, suggests that low flow conditions may return to main stem rivers in the Greater Mississippi River Basin later this year.
The Bank decides the text of the Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (Outlook Report) at the Monetary Policy Meetings (MPMs) and releases it quarterly (usually in January, April, July, and October) note 1. The Outlook Report presents the Bank's outlook for developments in economic activity and prices, assesses upside and downside risks, and outlines its views on the future course of monetary policy.
CRW's CFS-based Outlook predicts the likelihood of coral bleaching heat stress up to four months in the future (typical length of a bleaching season). Four-month composite outlook maps of six variables are displayed on this page. Outlooks of the six variables that predict potential heat stress conditions for each week during the target four-month period, and that thefour-month composite outlooks are derived from, are accessible through the "Weekly Outlook" linksprovided to the right of the corresponding composite maps. The CFSv2 provides 16 forecast runs per day (nine 45-day forecast runs, three 90-day forecast runs, and four 9-month forecast runs). From these, CRW constructs between 28 and 112 ensemble members at a weekly time scale for its probabilistic outlooks. 112 members are included for future Weeks 1-5, 49 members for Weeks 6-12, and 28 members for Weeks 13-36 with Week 1 being the first future week predicted. The Outlook is updated weekly on Tuesday of Week 1. Details of the six maps are described below. The relationship between the predicted heat stress and potential bleaching severity is based on CRW's pre-defined levels for its satellite coral bleaching heat stress monitoring, as follows:
Note that CRW's Four-Month Coral Bleaching Outlook was formerly known as the Seasonal Coral Bleaching Heat Stress Outlook. Although the product does provide the maximum composite outlook for the entire coverage period of four months, it also provides an outlook for each individual week within a four-month period. Furthermore, the product updates weekly, not seasonally as the previous name might suggest.
While acknowledging potential model limitations, longer lead-time predictions are helpful in preparing coral reef stakeholders to understand potential future heat stress. They can greatly support effective reef management and conservation decisions and communication with the public and local decision makers. NOAA CRW suggests caution, however, in the use and analysis of outlooks with lead-times longer than 20 weeks.
The first version of CRW's CFS-based probabilistic weekly Four-Month Coral Bleaching Outlook, based on the SST forecast from CFS Version 1 (CFSv1, Saha et a. 2006), wasreleased to thepublic in July 2012 during the 12th International Coral Reef Symposium(Eakin et al., 2012). The CFS-based Outlook has significantly enhanced CRW's capability for predicting the likelihood of coral bleaching heat stress. With CFS' multiple forecast runs per day, CRW is able to produce a probabilistic outlook that was not possible with CRW's former, LIM-based deterministic Outlook. In this very first version of the probabilistic CFS-based forecast, the Outlook was based on 28 ensemble members derived from CFS' four 270-day forecast runs per day, over a week.
The Predictive Services Unit began producing wildland fire potential outlooks during the 2002 fire season. Over time, these outlooks have been through many iterations and have changed over time with regard to their constituent products, time frame covered, timing of issuance, and categories of potential. Using these outlooks to make inferences about relative fire season severity may result in comparing dissimilar information or time frames.
To maintain transparency, the IRIS Program is providing an updated outlook of program activities. The following document describes assessments that are in development and projected public milestone dates. 0852c4b9a8
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