Throughout the years, I have continued to make insightful contributions through research, scholarship, and innovation for purposes of advancing knowledge, shaping public policy debates and discourses. My Open Researcher and Contributor IDentifier [ORCID] is 0000-0003-4205-6136. While ORCID centralizes these works for interested audiences by way of attribution and for connected purposes to researchers contributions and affiliations across time, disciplines, and borders, I labored to provide the same, quite deliberately. Some of these works include:

1. Digital Fragility, Assorted Risks and Terrorism Confluence

With Mavia Imbali, we make the case for a digitally connected world,  increased data demand and use on one hand and data protection and privacy concerns that are getting out of hand on the other hand [excuse the pun]. We discuss implications of [digital data value chains] these risks to individuals and organizations as wave of espionage characterize global data governance systems and value chains. 

Paper provides a discursive relationship between digital leakages risks and gains as economies, political parties and coalitions, corporations and extreme radical left terrorist individuals and groups jockey to advance their objectives. Data protection and privacy legislation developed show need for continued policy discourses for applicable law to catch up with new technological improvements. The final part of the paper carries out incisive discourses needed to contain malicious acquisition of data and limit criminal acts.

2. Association of Demographic and Occupational Factors with SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Uptake in Kenya

We drill down to provide initial measures put in place by government to control spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in Kenya [as of 2021] using demographic and occupational lenses. We dissect uncertainty around various brands of vaccines that were developed to attenuate further spread of the deadly virus and find variation on the acceptance and uptake of the vaccines and make metricized recommendations. This article is an outcome of collective intellectual inputs by Bertha A. Ocholla, Herbert K. Murayi, Jane W. Mwangi, Steve K. Belle, Phanice Ondeko and Rebecca Kendagor [all affiliated with the Kenyatta National Hospital] and me. Since publication in May 2021, the paper has been cited in the following works: 

• Nasimiyu, C.; Audi, A.; Oduor, C.; Ombok, C.; Oketch, D.; Aol, G.; Ouma, A.; Osoro, E.; Ngere, I.; Njoroge, R.; Munyua, P.; Lo, T.; Herman-Roloff, A.; Bigogo, G.; Munywoki, P.K. COVID-19 Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices and Vaccine Acceptability in Rural Western Kenya and an Urban Informal Settlement in Nairobi, Kenya: A Cross-Sectional Survey. COVID 2022, 2, 1491-1508.

• Kaya, G. , Trabzon, Ş. & Göger, S. (2022). Attitudes towards the COVID-19 vaccine: What do healthcare students think about the COVID-19 vaccine? . Journal of Experimental and Clinical Medicine , 39 (2) , 393-397 . Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/omujecm/issue/68947/987462 

• Ozkan Oskay, P. , Kaya, G. , Altindis, S. & Altindis, M. (2022). Healthcare Professionals and COVID-19 Vaccine: Approaches of Health Workers to Vaccination in the First Days of Vaccination . Kafkas Tıp Bilimleri Dergisi , 12 (2) , 111-115 . Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/kaftbd/issue/72657/1179138 

3. Climate Change-Urbanization Nexus: Exploring the Contribution of Urbanization on Carbon Emissions in East Africa

With Victor Senelwa of the World Bank Group and Benson Igesa of the Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis (KIPPRA) we dissect inaccuracies around the climate change narratives in Africa. We use panel data for selected East African countries and conduct analysis on the urbanization-carbon emissions models that determine the presence of an Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis. We execute parametric and semi-parametric fixed-effects models and compare results, which reveal that urbanization and economic growth are responsible for continued environmental deterioration in the region. We conclude that contrary to the popular perception that East Africa, like the rest of the continent, is only a victim than a contributor of climate change, it is an important emitter of carbon dioxide mainly because of urbanization and recommend infusion of extra-modernization designs in economic planning to attenuate this startling problem. Future studies, we further recommend, should focus on urbanization and how countries in the region can grow without necessarily impairing the environment.  This article has been cited in:

• REIMAGINING BEING AND BELONGING IN UGANDA: AN ENABLING FRAMEWORK TO FOSTER OUR SUSTAINED DEVELOPMENT A CONSENSUS STUDY OF THE UGANDA NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES https://unas.org.ug/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Reimagining-Being-and-Belonging-in-Uganda.pdf 

• Pei, X., Wu, J., Xue, J., Zhao, J., Liu, C., & Tian, Y. (2022). Assessment of Cities’ Adaptation to Climate Change and Its Relationship with Urbanization in China. Sustainability, 14(4), 2184.

• Aladejare, S. A. (2022). The Human Well-being and Environmental Degradation Nexus in Africa. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2464-026X 

• Udemba, E., & Tosun, M. Are Renewable Energy and Technological Innovation Development Consistency in Achieving Climate and Sustainable Development Goals (Sdgs)?. Available at SSRN 4077016.

• Njoroge, W. W. (2020). Growth in Energy Demand and Supply and Its Implications for Achieving an Inclusive Green Economy in Kenya (Doctoral dissertation, University of Nairobi).

4. Linking Weather Variability and Economic Growth in the East African Region: A Semi-Parametric Smooth Coefficient Approach

This article was meticulously guided by George Ruigu - PhD. Perhaps, without his ample support, this work could not have been developed. We argue that unprecedented fluctuations in weather have direct and indirect effects on the East African region, an issue we assess using the  semi-parametric smooth coefficient approach. Findings ably reveal that weather parameters of annual average rainfall and temperature significantly influence economic growth in the region. Our results shed new light in the weather variability-economic growth nexus and suggest adoption of certain affordable yet viable policies for sustainable economic growth. This paper has been cited in: 

• Bundala, N. (2023). A Neural Designer for Artificial Neural Network Analysis in Predicting Psychological Impact of Price, Fashion and Weather Changes on Economic Growth. https://napublisher.org/pdf-files/NIJEFR-7(4)-77-95.pdf 

5. Linking Climate Change, Pollinators and Cereal Yields in Kenya

Today, the Russia-Ukraine war has revealed external shocks can cut global food supply chains and render countries already struggling with starvation food insecure. But in 2020, Rachel Ngesa of the Kenya School of Government, Victor Senelwa-Kidake of the World Bank Group and I projected that climate change episodes are increasingly complicating resource use, access and management in the majority of the developing countries. We posited that parasitic weeds and crop diseases are hurting annual cereal yields and application of agrochemicals to contain locusts, birds and insects that destroy produce have the propensity to kill pollinators such as bees. Essentially, we further posited, pollinators play a critical role in ensuring ecological sustainability and food security. In this article,  long-term historical data (1961 and 2017) is analysed to link climate change, pollinators and cereal yields in Kenya on a multivariate model. The findings revealed that a unit increase in the amount of rainfall will result in a proportionate increase in cereal yields but a unit increase in temperature will lead to varied increases in cereal yields. The findings also revealed that bees played a critical role in the pollination of maize, wheat and beans but not rice. We recommended that future studies should consider monthly or quarterly climate data in determining future impacts of climate change and pollinators on cereal yields. This article has been cited in: 

• Zinyama, T., Kuwa, O., & Chirisa, I. (2021). Driving Climate Change into the Devolution and Transformation Agenda: Some Insights from Zimbabwe. Journal: Handbook of Climate Change Management, 1-17.

6. The Impact of Weather Variability on Economic Growth in Kenya

This publication is a product of my masters dissertation at the University of Nairobi and was supervised by George Ruigu, PhD. I make the case that the effect of weather and climate variability on economic performance is ordinarily estimated using simulation models that predict the magnitude of long-term implications under normal and adverse scenarios. These models do not provide information that can enable policy within the short-run. Understanding how weather behavior can influence economic growth over short periods is particularly important in predicting future economic performance of an economy. I set set to explore the influence of weather change on economic performance in Kenya. The time series data from the World Development Indicator and the World Bank climate change portal for the last 50 years (1964-2013) was used. Upon carrying out various time series diagnostics tests, analysis was done based on the Vector Error Correction Model. The results showed that total rainfall had a negative relationship with gross domestic product while change in temperature indicated a positive relationship; however the magnitude of these relationships differed by margin. Change in human capital formation resulted to a negative contribution on gross domestic product per capita growth because increase in knowledge leads to massive production that increases carbon dioxide gas concentration in the atmosphere, which has economic implications. Finally, change in the total population parameter indicated that the magnitude of output decreases with increase in population. The study recommends that appropriate measures be put in place to help the vulnerable poor to adapt and to mitigate in the face of weather variability. The dissertation has been cited in:

• N'Zué, F. F. (2018). Does climate change have real negative impact on economic growth in poor countries? Evidence from Cote D’Ivoire (Ivory Coast). Manag Econ Res J, 4(2018), 6792.

• Mulama, O. N., & Kariuki, C. W. (2020). Panel Analysis of the Relationship Between Weather Variability and Sectoral Output in Kenya. African Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation, 1-17.

7. Drought and Floods: The triad of Climate Change Adaptation, Gender and Devolution in Kenya

This book chapter was co-published with Rachel Ngesa and Antony Okeyo [both of the Kenya School of Government, Nairobi] in Gender, Politics and Governance in Africa in 2020 by Mutiat Titilope Oladejo. The chapter examines the trifactor of climate change, gender and devolved government structures in Kenya. The real tussle in development of this work was translating office discussions into ideas and eventually a book chapter. We reflect on the role of gender amid the pressing challenge of climate change in the presence of the decentralized system of governance.

At the height of COVID-19, I was interviewed by Vivianne Wandera of the Standard Media Group about people's likely spending behaviour during the pandemic. Insights provided then alongside other related engagement would see my co-option into an inter-agency working group of prominent scholars who developed a policy brief advisory on control and response to COVID-19 pandemic. This advisory influenced second Presidential Executive Order of 2020 and decision of the National Emergency Response Committee on Coronavirus on cessation of movement. Below is the conversation as reported by the national newspaper:

Are there aspects of life that are immune to the coronavirus pandemic?

It is unlikely. The whirlwind of the pandemic has rapidly changed how we relate with one another and inflicted shocks socially, economically and politically. Because of the disease, the conveyor belt that drove world economies with speed has either become lethargic or is grinding slowly.

What trends have you observed about the pandemic that have changed our lives?

There is an upward trend in our struggle to tap into technology to shop , learn and work from home . This means a disruption to sectors beyond tourism , transport and education . The pandemic has coerced businesses to come up with newer competitive strategies to stay afloat . Globally , the world's economy is in limbo as people are mostly buying essential goods and services . But the unseen stark reality is that unless producers are supported through innovative ways , soon stocks will be depleted . It will be a hustle to survive .

What economic sense does the dusk-to-dawn curfew make in a country aspiring to have a 24-hour economy?

The curfew is a temporal intervention tailored to save lives. Thanks to this intervention, countries like Italy have registered remarkable gains - their curve is flattening . Most importantly , the functioning of an economy depends on the factors of production that include labour in exchange for income . When one's health is on the cusp of being compromised , one's propensity to produce will be compromised . The hallmark of an economy's health is the health of its people. The curfew is a mitigating measure meant to guard public interests .

Some quarters argue that populations would still have been distributed over 24 hours to enhance social distancing?

One aspect to the containment of the spread is tracing and identification of contacts. This will be difficult to achieve at night. Moreover, it is economical to implement the dusk-to-dawn curfew, because if activities are spread out over 24 hours , it would require 24 - hour enforcement, translating to an enormous budget . Then some suicidal victims might mingle to spread it. The curfew allows even those at the bottom of the pyramid to work during the day and put food on the table at night. Failure to comply is a total lockdown with associated ramifications.

Countries with nuclear weapons are helpless over an invisible enemy easily defeated with just water, soap and sanitizer. This pandemic will change economic priorities...

In Kenya, like elsewhere, it has compelled governments to implement Universal Health Care ( UHC ) model. Our factories are now running to provide personal protective equipment and ventilators. Literally, UHC and manufacturing are being prioritized under the Big Four Agenda. But it is plausible that despite increased funding of medical research, once a vaccine is found, the world might fall back to nuclear weapons, vehicles, clothes and shoes before God forbid-another external shock shakes up everything.

Which industries are unlikely to recover and which ones will emerge, at least, in Kenya ?

Individual industries will react differently. There is no distinct industry that will emerge, but additional market destinations for Kenya and Africa's primary resources will be created. The forces of demand and supply and the policy direction that Kenya will take after the pandemic will generally determine the pace of recovery. Business cycles (both anticipated and non-anticipated) are bound to happen. Automotive, construction and real estate, education, energy and petroleum, financial services, industry and manufacture, maritime and aviation as well tourism and hospitality will suffer in the short-run, but will recover through the medium-term and long-run. Medical supply and services and personal healthcare providers will experience sustained growth, as long as our war against the pandemic is on. Electronic commerce and information technology and agriculture are already champions and are unlikely to be shoved aside even after the pandemic is over.

Which Industries will the coronavirus pandemic kill completely?

It is unlikely that the pandemic will render any industry redundant. However, we are likely to see some like the energy, transport, export farm produce and hospitality picking up, slowly, but steadily.

'Disaster capitalism' occurs during catastrophes. What opportunities will the coronavirus pandemic unveil?

In the long-term, it will increase investments in real-estate. People will strive to own houses and cars for their own place and space to breathe in without sharing. People will demand better social protection and services from elected leaders. The pandemic will widen space for risk sharing among investors, including development partners. Collaborations are going to be new conduits for long-term and resource-intensive investments. There will be an increased demand for digital data and analyzing of big data to make predictions. Advance planning while accounting for unforeseeable risks is going to be a new norm. Doubtlessly, there will be speedy policy reforms and reviews across all industries.

Are there ways countries can cushion themselves in case of another pandemic?

It is a medical maxim that prevention is better than cure. Working to improve existing health systems, leveraging on early warning systems and encouraging data sharing on emerging disaster episodes will be vital. Harvesting and screening of big data using artificial intelligence to monitor populations and their movements will be key. Had we had such a system in place, tracing of contacts would have been just a click away. Research collaborations to constantly study emerging challenges and front appropriate interventions other than expediting rapid disaster responses will also go a long way in containing similar outbreaks.

President Uhuru Kenyatta dished out tax cuts to stimulate the economy through spending. But during emergencies, people save. It beats the purpose...

During emergencies, people spend through panic buying. They do not save. They buy, not so much because commodities will run out, but to defeat the possibility that there will be nothing left for them or prices will escalate. The President's move thus increased disposable income to cushion Kenyan consumers against shocks occasioned by demand and supply. The tax cuts are therefore not so much for stimulating the economy but ensuring a trickle-down effect.