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Senior Economist - Prospects Group, Development Economics, World Bank
IDEAS RePEc Google Scholar LinkedIn VoxEU.org World Bank Blogs
Working Papers and Work in Progress:
Working Papers and Work in Progress:
"Is the U.S. Friend-Shoring, Nearshoring, or Reshoring? Evidence from Greenfield Investment Announcements," (with G. Nayyar), December 2024, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper n. 11006.
"Gravity Model-Based Export Potential: An application to Turkey," (with P. Yasar), March 2021, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper n. 9557.
"Shocks, Technology, and Export Resilience: Evidence from the Covid-19 pandemic," Work in Progress, joint with C. Freund (UCSD GPS), G. Nayyar (WB), M. Ruta (IMF).
Journal articles:
Journal articles:
"Is US Trade Policy Reshaping Global Supply Chains?" (with C. Freund, A. Mattoo, M. Ruta), Journal of International Economics, Volume 152, November 2024.
Coverage: Reuters, 17 October 2023; Bloomberg, 10 October 2023; The New York Times, 31 August 2023; "US-China decoupling: Rhetoric and reality," VoxEU.org, 31 August 2023; The Economist, 8 August 2023
Also World Bank Policy Research Working Paper n. 10593
"Third-Country Effects of Regional Trade Agreements: A Firm Level Analysis," (with W. Lee and M. Ruta), Journal of International Economics, Volume 140, January 2023.
Also World Bank Policy Research Working Paper n. 9064
"Is 3D Printing a Threat to Global Trade? The trade effects you didn’t hear about," (with C. Freund and M. Ruta), Journal of International Economics, Volume 138, September 2022.
Coverage: "A World Bank Research milestone," (among the Top Papers by Downloads Per Year at the World Bank) 27 April 2022; The Economist, 16 December 2020; "Myth-busting: Why 3-D printing might actually be good for trade," The Trade Post, 18 November 2019; "Trade effects of 3D printing," VoxEU.org, 28 October 2019; Frankfurter Allgemeine, 21 October 2019; The Hill, 11 October 2019
Podcast: "Will 3D Printing Increase Trade? Hear All About It," Trade Talks, 12 November 2019
Also World Bank Policy Research Working Paper n. 9024
"Trade Barriers in Government Procurement," (with L. Rotunno), European Economic Review, Volume 148, September 2022.
Also World Bank Policy Research Working Paper n. 9602
"Natural Disasters and the Reconfiguration of Global Value Chains," (with C. Freund, A. Mattoo and M. Ruta), IMF Economic Review, Volume 70 (3), September 2022.
Coverage: The Economist, 16 June 2022, "How natural disasters reshape supply chains: Lessons for the COVID-19 crisis," VoxEU.org, 18 August 2021; "Lessons for COVID: How natural disasters reshape supply chains," World Economic Forum, 19 August 2021
Also World Bank Policy Research Working Paper n. 9719
"Trade Creation and Trade Diversion in Deep Agreements," (with A. Mattoo and M. Ruta), Canadian Journal of Economics, Volume 55 (3), August 2022.
Coverage: The Economist, 3 January 2019, Let’s Talk Development, World Bank, 16 October 2017; “Deep trade agreements as public goods,” VoxEU.org, 12 October 2017; "Rejuvenating regionalism," 8 December 2016 "International trade and integration: The latest research," 8 December 2016
Also World Bank Policy Research Working Paper n. 8206
"Financial Structures, Banking Regulations, and Export Dynamics" (with R. Minetti, M. Ruta and S. C. Zhu), Journal of Banking & Finance, Volume 124 (C), March 2021.
Coverage: "Financial reforms and export dynamism in developing countries," Let's Talk Development, 23 March 2021;
Also World Bank Policy Research Working Paper n. 8621
"Common Transport Infrastructure: A Quantitative Model and Estimates from the Belt and Road Initiative," (with F. de Soyres and M. Ruta), Journal of Development Economics, Volume 143, March 2020.
Award: World Bank ECA Academy 2019, Best policy-relevant research across the World Bank Group
Coverage: "Welfare effects of the Belt and Road Initiative," VoxEU.org, 12 July 2019; China Daily, 27 April 2019; The Economist, 25 April 2019; China Global Television Network, 16 April 2019; The Diplomat, 11 December 2019;
Also World Bank Policy Research Working Paper n. 8801 and Federal Reserve Board Discussion Paper n. 1273
"How Much Will the Belt and Road Initiative Reduce Trade Costs?" (with F. de Soyres, S. Murray, N. Rocha and M. Ruta), International Economics, Volume 159, pages 151-164, October 2019.
Coverage: China Global Television Network, 23 April 2019; “How the Belt and Road Initiative could reduce trade costs,” VoxEU.org, 27 November 2018; The Trade Post, World Bank, 16 October 2018 (Also in Chinese)
Also World Bank Policy Research Working Paper n. 8614 and Federal Reserve Board Discussion Paper n. 1274
"Trade and Civil Conflict: Revisiting the cross-country evidence," (with M. Cali’), Review of International Economics, Volume 25, Issue 1, pages 195-232, February 2017.
Coverage: "The take-aways from four dozen papers on conflict and fragility in Africa in under 2,000 words," 10 June 2015 (Also in French)
Also World Bank Policy Research Working Paper n. 7125
Books and policy reports:
Books and policy reports:
"Global Economic Prospects, June 2024" World Bank, Washington, DC. June 2024.
"Global Economic Prospects, January 2024" World Bank, Washington, DC. January 2024.
"Uzbekistan Country Climate and Development Report," World Bank, Washington, DC. November 2023.
"From Swimming in Sand to High and Sustainable Growth : A Roadmap to Reduce Distortions in the Allocation of Resources and Talent in the Pakistani Economy," World Bank, Washington, DC. November 2022.
Awards: World Bank Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions (EFI) 2023 VPU Team Award; World Bank South Asia Region (SAR) 2023 VPU Team Award
"Country Economic Memorandum: Leveraging Global Value Chains for Growth in Turkey," World Bank, Washington, DC. February 2022.
"Trade Watch: Trade Defies Headwinds," World Bank, Washington, DC. February 2022.
"Turkey Economic Monitor: Sailing Against the Tide," World Bank, February 2022.
Coverage: NIKKEI Asia, 28 February 2022
"Trade and Poverty in EU Regions: An Empirical Analysis," World Bank, Washington, DC. 2020.
"Belt and Road Economics: Opportunities and Risks of Transport Corridors," World Bank, Washington, DC. 2019.
Coverage: The Economist, 6 February 2020; Reuters, 18 June 2019; China Daily, 19 June 2019; Xinhua, 19 June 2019
"Effects of a Deeper Central European Free Trade Agreement," March 2018, World Bank.
"Global Trade Watch: Trade Developments in 2017," World Bank, Washington, DC. 2018.
Book chapters:
Book chapters:
"US-China decoupling: Rhetoric and reality," (with C. Freund, A. Mattoo and M. Ruta), Vox eBook Chapters, in Geoeconomic Fragmentation: The Economic Risks from a Fractured World Economy, edited by S. Aiyar, A. Presbitero, and M. Ruta, 2023. Centre for Economic Policy Research.
"Trade barriers in government procurement," (with L. Rotunno), Vox eBook Chapters, in The Economics of Deep Trade Agreements, edited by A. Fernandes, N. Rocha, and M. Ruta, 2021. Centre for Economic Policy Research.
Awards: World Bank Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions (EFI) 2022 VPU Team Award
"Trade as a vehicle for growth," (with V. Chemutai, M. Ferrantino and P. Saragiotis), in Breaking Out of Fragility. A Country Economic Memorandum for Diversification and Growth in Iraq, World Bank, 2020. World Bank Publications, The World Bank.
Awards: World Bank Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions (EFI) 2021 VPU Team Award; World Bank Middle East and North Africa (MENA) 2021 VPU Team Award
Coverage: Arab Voices, 17 November 2020 (also in French and Arabic)
"The supply chain shock from COVID-19: Risks and opportunities," (with C. Freund, A. Mattoo and M. Ruta), Vox eBook Chapters, in COVID-19 in Developing Economies, edited by S. Djankov and U. Panizza, 2020. Centre for Economic Policy Research.
"Deep Integration and UK-EU Trade Relations," (with A. Osnago and M. Ruta), in The Economics of UK-EU Relationship: From the Treaty of Rome to the Vote for Brexit, edited by N. Campos and F. Coricelli, 2017. Palgrave Macmillan.
Coverage: The Guardian, 3 June 2017; Financial Times, 1 June 2017; “Trading off a 'soft' and 'hard' Brexit”, VoxEU.org, 23 January 2017
Also World Bank Policy Research Working Paper n. 7947
Blogs:
Blogs:
"Global Trade Has Nearly Flatlined. Populism Is Taking a Toll on Growth," Barron's, 21 February, 2024.
"US-China decoupling: Rhetoric and reality," VoxEU.org, 31 August, 2023.
"The promise of export-led services growth is real," Private Sector Development Blog, 13 July, 2022.
"How natural disasters reshape supply chains: Lessons for the COVID-19 crisis," VoxEU.org, 18 August, 2021.
"Financial reforms and export dynamism in developing countries," Let’s Talk Development, 23 March, 2021.
"Trading out of fragility–Lessons from Iraq," Arab Voices, 17 November, 2020.
"Myth-busting: Why 3-D printing might actually be good for trade," The Trade Post, 18 November, 2019.
"Trade effects of 3D printing (that you didn’t hear about)," VoxEU.org, 28 October, 2019.
"Common transport infrastructure: Welfare effects of the Belt and Road Initiative," VoxEU.org, 12 July, 2018.
"How the Belt and Road Initiative could reduce trade costs," VoxEU.org, 27 November, 2018.
"How much will the Belt and Road Initiative reduce trade costs?" The Trade Post, 16 October, 2018.
"Trade agreements as public goods," The Trade Post, 16 October, 2017.
"Deep trade agreements as public goods," VoxEU.org, 12 October, 2017.
"Trading off a ‘soft’ and ‘hard’ Brexit," VoxEU.org, 16 January, 2017
Contributions to Policy Reports:
Contributions to Policy Reports:
"Pakistan Development Update: Navigating in Uncertain Times," (Box 3.1) World Bank, 2021.
Coverage: Global Village Space, 21 April 2021; The Nation, 12 April 2021; The News, 8 April 2021; Associated Press of Pakistan, 7 April 2021
Podcast: "Achieving $60 billion in exports", Pakistonomy, 24 April 2021 (also on youtube.com)
"Cross-Cutting Themes : Unleashing Central America’s Growth Potential," World Bank, 2021.
"Nepal Development Update: Harnessing Export Potential for a Green, Inclusive, and Resilient Recovery," World Bank, 2021.
Coverage: The Kathmandu Post , 12 April 2021
"Unleashing Central America’s Growth Potential," World Bank, 2021.
"Malaysia Economic Monitor (December): Sowing the Seeds," World Bank, 2020.
"From Landlocked to Land-linked: Unlocking the Potential of Lao-China Rail Connectivity," (Annex A: "Lao PDR and the Belt Road Initiative: key facts and figures") World Bank, 2020.
"East Asia and Pacific Economic Update (October): From Containment to Recovery," World Bank, 2020.
"WDR 2020: Trading for Development in the Age of Global Value Chains," World Bank, 2019.
"Western Balkans Regular Economic Report: Fall 2019," World Bank, October 2019.
"Global Trade Watch: Trade Developments in 2016," (Box 1), World Bank, February 2017.
Coverage: Financial Times, 21 February, 2017
"Making Global Value Chains Work for Development," World Bank, 2016.
"Trading Away from Conflict: Using Trade to Increase Resilience in Fragile States," World Bank, 2015.
Contact Information
Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG), World Bank
1818 H St. N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20433
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