I am Assistant Professor in Probability Theory at Leiden University. Prior to that, I was a postdoc at Aarhus University. I obtained my PhD in mathematics from the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology. Before that, I studied mathematics at the Technical University of Munich. My scientific focus areas are:
Random graphs and networks
Point processes (Poisson, Gibbs, determinantal etc.)
Stochastic geometry and geometric extreme value analysis
You can contact me via email to m.f.p.otto[at]math.leidenuniv.nl.
Maximum gap in complex Ginibre matrices (with Patrick Lopatto). arXiv2501.04611.
Poisson approximation of large-lifetime cycles (with Christian Hirsch and Nikolaj Nyvold Lundbye). arXiv2412.17482.
Random Connection Hypergraphs (with Morten Brun, Christian Hirsch and Peter Juhasz). arXiv2407.16334.
Compound Poisson process approximation under β-mixing and stabilization (with Nicolas Chenavier). Ann. Appl. Probab., 35 (4), 2544-2569. (2025)
Central limit theorems for Gibbs processes via disagreement couplings (with Christian Hirsch and Anne Marie Svane). Electron. J. Probab. 30, paper no. 91, 1–56. (2025)
Couplings and Poisson approximation for stabilizing functionals of determinantal point processes. Combinatorics, Probability and Computing, 34, 635–648. (2025)
Moderate deviations for weight-dependent random connection models (with Nils Heerten and Christian Hirsch). J. Appl. Probab. 62, forthcoming.
Large deviations for the volume of hyperbolic k-nearest neighbor balls (with Christian Hirsch, Takashi Owada and Christoph Thäle). Ann. Henri Poincaré Probab. Stat. 61, 1443–1457. (2025)
Poisson approximation of Poisson-driven point processes and extreme values in stochastic geometry. Bernoulli 31, 30–54. (2025)
Extremal behavior of large cells in the Poisson hyperplane mosaic. Electron. J. Probab. 28, paper no. 162, 1–29. (2023)
Disagreement coupling of Gibbs processes with an application to Poisson approximation (with Günter Last). Ann. Appl. Probab. 33, 4091–4126. (2023)
Large nearest neighbour balls in hyperbolic stochastic geometry (with Christoph Thäle). Extremes 26, 413–431. (2023)
Limit laws for large kth-nearest neighbor balls (with Nicolas Chenavier and Norbert Henze). J. Appl. Probab. 59, 880–894. (2022)
Tail dependence of recursive maxlinear models with regularly varying noise variables (with Nadine Gissibl and Claudia Klüppelberg). Econometrics and Statistics 6, 149–167. (2018)
(10/25) Subgraph counts in a dynamic random connection model, Workshop on Random Geometry, Graphs and Extremes, Dubrovnik
(10/25) Maximum gap in complex Ginibre matrices, EVTA seminar, Amsterdam
(10/25) Maximum gap in complex Ginibre matrices, Bielefeld–Melbourne–Seoul RMT seminar, online
(06/25) Central limit theorems for linear eigenvalue statistics of random spatial networks, Probability Seminar, Hamburg University
(06/25) Large components in random hyperbolic graphs, Workshop `Recent Advances in Evolving and Spatial Random Graphs', Bayrischzell
(04/25) Central limit theorems for linear eigenvalue statistics of random spatial networks. Nederlands Mathematisch Congres, Soesterberg
(04/25) Mini-course on Limit theory for random geometric graphs. Networks Training week, Doorn
(11/24) Extremal gaps in random point configurations. General Mathematics Colloquium, Leiden University
(11/24) Limit theorems via disagreement couplings. One World Probability Seminar, online
(10/24) Poisson approximation for determinantal score functionals. Workshop on Geometric Extreme Value Theory, Bochum
(09/24) Maximum cells in the Poisson hyperplane mosaic. Workshop on Stochastic Geometry in Action, Bath
(09/24) Disagreement coupling and limit theorems for Gibbs point processes. Workshop on Interacting particles in the continuum, Eurandom Eindhoven
(08/24) Strongly mixing point processes and coupound Poisson process approximation. Bernoulli-IMS World Congress in Probability and Statistics, Bochum
(04/24) Cumulants and moderate deviations in the weighted random connection model. Probability and Statistics Seminar, Syddansk Universitet, Odense
(04/24) Poisson approximation for determinantal score functionals. Probability and Discrete Mathematics Seminar, University of Groningen
(11/23) Compound Poisson process approximation and minimal angles in Delaunay triangles. Meeting on Point Processes and Stochastic Geometry, Münster
(10/23) Cumulant method for weighted random connection models. Workshop on New Trends in Extreme Value Theory, Dubrovnik
(06/23) Large nearest neighbour balls in hyperbolic stochastic geometry. 13th International Conference in Extreme Value Analysis, Milan
(05/23) Disagreement coupling and limit theory for Gibbs point processes. Seminar on Probability Theory, Bonn University
(05/23) Central limit theorems for point processes with a focus on Gibbsian functionals. Meeting of the Danish Statistical Society, Aalborg
(03/23) Limit theorems for Gibbs functionals: Stein’s method meets disagreement percolation. UK Easter Probability Meeting, Manchester
(03/23) Large nearest neighbour balls in hyperbolic stochastic geometry. German Probability and Statistics Days, Essen
(01/23) Limit theorems for Gibbsian score functionals via disagreement couplings. Seminar on Point Processes, Université de Lille
(01/23) Poisson process approximation in Poisson-Voronoi and hyperplane mosaics. Seminar on Applied Mathematics, Université du Littoral Côte d’Opale
(09/22) Limit theorems via Palm couplings. Summer School on Processes on Random Geometric Graphs, Cologne
(09/22) Limit theorems via (disagreement) Palm couplings. Workshop on Limit Theorems for Spatial Random Structures, Bochum
(02/22) Couplings and Poisson approximation of functionals of Gibbs processes. Workshop on New Trends in Point Process Theory, Karlsruhe
(11/21) Couplings and Poisson approximation of determinantal point processes. Workshop on Probabilistic and Analytical Aspects of Regular Variation, Dubrovnik
(10/21) Poisson process approximation in Poisson-Voronoi and hyperplane mosaics. Seminar on Stochastic Geometry, Ruhr University Bochum
(09/21) Limit laws for large kth-nearest-neighbor balls. German Probability and Statistics Days, online
(06/21) Extremal behavior of large cells in the Poisson hyperplane mosaic. 12th International Conference in Extreme Value Analysis, online
2019
(07/19) Poisson process approximation of thinnings of stationary point processes. 11th International Conference in Extreme Value Analysis, Zagreb
(04/19) Poisson process approximation of thinnings of stationary point processes. Seminar on Probability Theory, Wroclaw University
I have acted as a lecturer/TA for the following courses and seminars at bachelor/master level:
Ruin Theory and Extremes (2025; lecturer)
Introduction to Network Science (2025; lecturer)
Mathematical Reasoning (2025; lecturer)
Stochastic Geometry (2023; lecturer)
Seminar on Stein's Method (2021; lecturer)
Probability Theory (2021, 2020, 2018; TA)
Introduction to Probability and Statistics (2019; TA)
Spatial Stochastics (2018; TA)
Mathematics for Industrial Engineering 3 (2017, 2020; TA)
Mathematics for Industrial Engineering 2 (2017; TA)
Mathematics for Industrial Engineering 1 (2016; TA)