Multi-Scale, Coupled-Systems Research on Dam Decision-Making

The research goal is to advance the understanding and integration of: 1) the trade-offs and dynamic behavior of dams in coupled social–ecological systems (SES); and 2) the ways in which SES and other knowledge are developed and used as knowledge systems (KS) to shape decision-making. Hydropower represents the largest source of clean energy in New England (NE). NE also has > 1,000 significant or high hazard dams, and 52 dams in ME, NH, and RI will require FERC relicensing in the next decade. This nexus offers a unique laboratory to develop and integrate new knowledge of dam-related SES dynamics with KS research to enhance science-based decision making.

Participatory System Dynamics Simulation

To analyze the efficiency of negotiated outcomes at maximizing and balancing system performance tradeoffs, system dynamics modeling (SDM) and a role-play simulation (RPS) were integrated. SDM is an ideal approach to facilitate communication and negotiation, as well as to assist stakeholders and decision-makers in considering basin-scale tradeoffs and building consensus. RPS engages participants in a hypothetical, yet realistic decision-making scenario that fosters creativity and provides an immersive experience to negotiate complex public policy issues. RPS participants typically assume a role different from their own, which is intended to provide insights into other stakeholders’ perspectives, interests, and constraints. Combining SDM and RPS provides an opportunity to evaluate the relationship between different outcomes in terms of selected performance variables. SDM can be used to simulate the complete range of possible outcomes as defined by the RPS scenario. From this set of outcomes, solutions can be identified that optimize across quantifiable performance variables. The RPS provides a forum to convene diverse stakeholders to discuss the results of the SDM, along with a range of non-quantified political considerations and social values defined within the RPS scenario. 

Funding

• National Science Foundation EPSCoR Track 2 Grant, #1539071

• Department of Energy CERC-WET Phase 2 Grant, Project 3.6

Water Power Data Stories

• Penobscot

• Connecticut 

• Wisconsin 

• Upper Eel and Russian  

• HydroSource 

Relevant Publications

Tradeoff modeling and optimization

• C Song, A O’Malley, J Zydlewski, W Mo, “Balancing fish-energy-cost tradeoffs through strategic basin-wide dam management,” Resources, Conservation & Recycling, 161, 104990, 2020. 

• C Song, W Mo, “A temporal perspective to dam management: influence of dam life and threshold fishery conditions on the energy-fish tradeoff,” Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 1-12, 2019. 

• C Song, A O’Malley, SG Roy, BL Barber, J Zydlewski, W Mo, “Managing dams for energy and fish tradeoffs: What does a win-win solution take?” Science of the Total Environment, 669, 833-843, 2019. 

• SG Roy, E Uchida, SP de Souza, B Blachly, E Fox, K Gardner, A Gold, J Jansujwicz, S Klein, B McGreavy, W Mo, SMC Smith, E Vogler, K Wilson, J Zydlewskik, D Hart, “Damming decisions: a multi-scale approach to balance trade-offs among dam infrastructure, river restoration, and cost,” Proceedings of National Academy of Sciences, 115 :47, 12069-12074, 2018.

• C Song, K Gardner, S Klein, SP Souza, W Mo, “Cradle-to-Grave Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Dams in the United States of America,” Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 90, 945-956, 2018. 

Integrated system dynamics modeling and role-play simulation

• Pearl River Negotiation Role Play Game Teaching Packet

• The Pearl River System Dynamics Model User Interface

• C Song, NL Diessner, CM Ashcraft, W Mo*, “Can science-informed, consensus-based stakeholder negotiations achieve optimal dam decision outcomes?” Environmental Development, 37, 100602, 2021.

• Presentation at the Mitchell Center of Sustainability at University of Maine