The Metaculus Doomsday Clock shows how close the metaculus community thinks humanity is to extinction. Currently it estimates the time until midnight by dividing 24 hours into 100 intervals and using the median Metaculus chance that humanity goes extinct by 2100 as the number of intervals advanced until midnight. A 0% chance corresponds to 24 hours until midnight, and a 100% chance corresponds to "We have reached midnight." You can find the relevant Metaculus question here: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/
Note that Metaculus predictors have an incentive to undereport their true credences, since they can't be penalized if humanity did in fact go extinct. There are many ways this clock can be improved.
