Latest Weather Report
Updated: 01:35 AM 01/09/2026
By: Michael Cromer, MWH Chief
 

[01:57 AM 01/09/2026]
[Michael Cromer, MWH Chief]

A 992 mb low was over southern WI, w/ an attendant cold front extending through central AR.  Though additional showers are still possible along and ahead of the front, which will move through our area in the morning, models generally show lesser coverage for the rest of the night for our area w/ the brunt of rainfall moving off to our east, so have lowered rain chances accordingly.  In addition, w/ the main dynamics and responsible low-level jet moving off to the N/E, winds have diminished considerably.  Friday (today) will be cooler and drier behind the front, before another SFC low brings us more rain Friday night.

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[03:29 PM 01/08/2026]
[Michael Cromer, MWH Chief]

Mostly cloudy, breezy, and unseasonably mild afternoon as we sit in the southerly pressure gradient between a high over the Mid-Atlantic and a low over the Central Plains.  Winds (especially gusts) may increase further this evening as the low continues NEWD into the Midwest vicinity, although it's unlikely that we'll be looking at Wind Advisory-level winds at this time.

Warm air advection (low 60s dewpoints, ~1.5" PWATs) ahead of a cold front extending from the aforementioned SFC low and weak lift generated by the front should be enough to produce some showers along/ahead of it tonight.  While a lot of speed and directional wind shear will exist beneath a 40-50-kt low-level jet ahead of the front, the best forcing for ascent will pass N of our area, casting serious doubt on updraft and resulting thunderstorm potential.  Global and mesoscale models don't generate any more than a few hundred J/kg of CAPE, which wouldn't be enough to compensate for such a weakly forced environment.

As the effective boundary (front) pushes into MS on Friday, somewhat cooler and drier air is expected to sink in from the north, which recent guidance has been more enthusiastic about.  This implies that most or all of the daytime Friday will be dry, before another band of rain moves through the area Friday night in association with another system developing along the front to our south.  Guidance is generally showing less than one inch w/ this bout of rainfall, so our heavy rainfall threat is low.

Even cooler and drier air will move in for the wknd as our flow switches more to the NW or N behind the main system, w/ high pressure building in and expected to diminish our cloud cover on Saturday.  Temps will warm back up somewhat early next week before a reinforcing cold front moves through the area on Wednesday.  Precipitation chances w/ this front appear low.

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