Martin McCarthy

Research Manager at the Reserve Bank of Australia

I am a research manager at the Reserve Bank of Australia. I previously worked as an economist for the Australian Treasury and as a consultant for the International Monetary Fund. I have a Masters and PhD in Economics from the University of Oxford.

My research to date has focussed on macroeconomic forecasting. More recently, I have been using large administrative datasets to answer macroeconomic questions.

My CV is here

Journal Articles

Predictable by Construction: Assessing Forecast Directional Accuracy of Temporal Aggregates, Applied Economics, 2025 (with Stephen Snudden)

Does Global Inflation Help Forecast Inflation in Industrialized Countries?, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2019 (with Christian Gillitzer)

Working Papers

Real GDP Forecasts by International Organisations, RBA Research Discussion Paper, 2026 (with Umberto Collodel and Prakah Loungani)

Forecasts of Period-Average Exchange Rates: New Insights from Real-Time Daily Data, RBA Research Discussion Paper, 2025 (with Stephen Snudden). The supplementary information includes our novel dataset of daily effective exchange rates.

Measuring Effective Searchers with Quantity Indexes, ESCoE discussion paper, 2025

Doctoral Thesis

Essays in empirical macroeconomics and finance, 2024. Chapters 1 and 2 are now RBA Research Discussion Papers. Chapter 3, 'Abolishing Imputation Credit Refunds: Evidence from an Event Study', has not been published elsewhere.

Policy Publications

Developments in Wages Growth Across Pay-setting Methods, RBA Bulletin, 2024 (with Iain Ross, Madison Terrell, Lydia Wang)

The IMF’s Forecasting and Policy Advice Formulation Processes During the Pandemic, IMF Independent Evaluation Office Background Paper, 2023 (with Prakash Loungani, Akos Mate, Umberto Collodel)

The OECD Global Anti-Base Erosion proposal, Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation Report, 2020 (with Michael Devereux and others)

The Labour Market during and after the Terms of Trade Boom, RBA Bulletin (with Kathryn Davis, Jonathan Bridges)

Google Sites

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