Dr Martin McCarthy

Research Manager at the Reserve Bank of Australia

I am a research manager at the Reserve Bank of Australia. I previously worked as an economist for the Australian Treasury and as a consultant for the International Monetary Fund. I have a Masters and PhD in Economics at the University of Oxford.

My research to date has focussed on macroeconomic forecasting. More recently, I have been using large administrative datasets to answer macroeconomic questions.

My CV is here

Journal Articles

Does Global Inflation Help Forecast Inflation in Industrialized Countries?, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2019 (with Christian Gillitzer)

Working Papers

Forecasts of Period-Average Exchange Rates: New Insights from Real-Time Daily Data, LCERPA Working paper, 2024 (with Stephen Snudden). The effective exchange rate data is on dropbox.

Predictable by Construction: Assessing Forecast Directional Accuracy of Temporal Aggregates, LCERPA Working Paper, 2024 (with Stephen Snudden).

Doctoral Thesis

Essays in empirical macroeconomics and finance, 2024. This includes:

The Rationality and Accuracy of Real GDP Forecasts by International Organisations (with Umberto Collodel and Prakash Loungani)
Abolishing Imputation Credit Refunds: Evidence from an Event Study

Policy Publications

Developments in Wages Growth Across Pay-setting Methods, RBA Bulletin, 2024 (with Iain Ross, Madison Terrell, Lydia Wang)

The IMF’s Forecasting and Policy Advice Formulation Processes During the Pandemic, IMF Independent Evaluation Office Background Paper, 2023 (with Prakash Loungani, Akos Mate, Umberto Collodel)

The OECD Global Anti-Base Erosion proposal, Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation Report, 2020 (with Michael Devereux and others)

The Labour Market during and after the Terms of Trade Boom, RBA Bulletin (with Kathryn Davis, Jonathan Bridges)

Google Sites

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