April 2025

Brett's Thoughts

The big one has begun. China has rolled back tariffs on the U.S. to 10% from 130%, while the U.S. rolls back tariffs from 145% to 30%.  We'll see if it holds. 90 90-day negotiation period will shed some more light on a hopeful deal to come. Markets were very green in response. CPI report to come Tuesday, May 13th, investors will watch closely to see if anything supports a fed hold on rate cuts and any potential tariff impact.  

Hunter's Thoughts:

A president does not control the stock market. Markets respond to policies, not political rhetoric. While presidential policies can influence economic conditions and investor sentiment, poor communication, inconsistent execution, and erratic decision-making undermine market stability. If everything burns, the repricing of assets presents opportunity.

Millennials will control the political narrative by 2034. We’re seeing the early tremors. Expect continued tension between labor and capital as policy shifts toward fairness over efficiency. Increasing average GDP is efficient, increasing median outcomes for homes is "fair," and expensive. Protectionism under Trump, populism under Biden, and the normalization of massive fiscal spending point to a long-term macro regime change. (One that echoes the stagnation of 1968-1982, where equity markets went sideways for over a decade.) Structural inflation pressures, social spending, and political incentives to support labor over capital will weigh on profit margins and compress valuations. This is not a dip to buy blindly, it’s a generational repricing. 

For traders, this implies a secular opportunity to short expensive beta and go long real assets and volatility. I'm buying inflation beneficiaries: commodities, industrials, defense, and hard assets. Fade tech multiples when real yields rise. Rotate toward companies with pricing power, tangible cash flow, and minimal duration risk. Allocate toward volatility products when sentiment is overly complacent. Don’t be fooled by fear or narrative comfort—markets price the future, not the past. Recognize that a generational power shift is already underway, and position accordingly.