Marcos Chamon

I am an Acting Division Chief at the the International Monetary Fund. I have worked and published on a wide range of topics related to international economics and macroeconomics, with a focus on problems that are relevant for developing countries and emerging markets.

Research

New Papers

“Costs of Sovereign Defaults: Restructuring Strategies, Bank Distress and the Capital Inflow-Credit Channel” (with Tamon Asonuma, Aitor Erce, and Akira Sasahara). Revise and Resubmit at the American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics.

Journal Articles

“Foreign-law bonds: Can they reduce sovereign borrowing costs?” (with Julian Schumacher and Christoph Trebesch), Journal of International Economics, 2018, Vol. 114, pp. 164-179.

“FX interventions in Brazil: A synthetic control approach” (with Márcio Garcia and Laura Souza), Journal of International Economics, 2017, Vol. 108, pp. 157-168.

“Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence” (with Olivier Blanchard, Jonathan D. Ostry, and Atish R. Ghosh), IMF Economic Review, 2017, Vol. 65(3), pp. 563-585.

"Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary?" (joint with Olivier Blanchard, Jonathan D. Ostry and Atish R. Ghosh). American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 2016, Vol. 106(2), pp. 565-569.

“The Problem that Wasn’t: Coordination Failures in Sovereign Debt Restructurings” (with Ran Bi and Jeromin Zettelmeyer), IMF Economic Review, 2016, Vol. 64 (3), pp. 471-501.

Capital Controls in Brazil: Effective? (With Márcio Garcia). Journal of International Money and Finance, 2016, Vol. 61, pp. 163-87.

“Two targets, two instruments: monetary and exchange rate policy in emerging market economies” (with Atish R. Ghosh and Jonathan D. Ostry), Journal of International Money and Finance 2016, Vol. 60, pp. 172-196.

"Consumption Based Estimates of Chinese Growth" (with Irineu de Carvalho Filho), China Economic Review, 2014, Vol. 29, pp. 126-137.

“Income Uncertainty and Household Savings in China” (with Kai Liu and Eswar Prasad). Journal of Development Economics, 2013, Vol. 105, pp. 164-177.

“Tools for Managing Financial-Stability Risks from Capital Inflows” (with Jonathan D. Ostry, Atish R. Ghosh and Mahvash S. Qureshi), Journal of International Economics, 2012, Vol. 88(2), pp. 407-21.

"The Iceberg Theory of Campaign Contributions: Political Threats and Interest Group Behavior" (with Ethan Kaplan). The American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 2013, Vol.5, pp. 1-31 .

“The Myth of Post-Reform Income Stagnation: Evidence from Brazil and Mexico” (with Irineu de Carvalho Filho). Journal of Development Economics, Volume 97 (2), March 2012, pp. 368-386.

“Capital Controls—When and Why?” (With Jonathan D. Ostry, Atish R. Ghosh, and Mahvash S. Qureshi). IMF Economic Review, Vol. 59(3), 2011, pp. 562-580.

“Why are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising?” (with Eswar Prasad). American Economic Journal Macroeconomics, January 2010, Vol 2(1), pp.93-130.

“Economic Transformation, Population Growth and the Long-Run World Income Distribution.” (with Michael Kremer). Journal of International Economics, September 2009, Vol 79(1), pp.20-30.

“A Micro-Empirical Foundation for the Political Economy of Exchange Rate Populism” (with Irineu de Carvalho Filho), IMF Staff Papers, September 2008, V.55(3), pp. 481-510.

“Cars: Mass Car Ownership in the Emerging Market Giants” (with Paolo Mauro and Yohei Okawa), Economic Policy, April 2008, Vol. 23, Issue 54, pp. 243-296.

“Can We Predict the Next Capital Account Crises” (with Paolo Manasse and Alessandro Prati), IMF Staff Papers, September 2007, V.54(2), pp. 270-305.

“Can Debt Crises Be Self-Fulfilling”, Journal of Development Economics, January 2007, v. 82(1), pp. 234-44.

“Asian Growth and African Development” (with Michael Kremer), American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 2006, Vol 96(2), pp. 400-404.

“Pricing Growth Indexed Bonds” (with Paolo Mauro), Journal of Banking and Finance, 2006, Vol. 30(12), pp. 3349-66.

Selected IMF Publications

Foreign Exchange Interventions in Inflation Targeters in Latin America (with David Hofman, Nicolas E. Magud, and Alejandro Werner, eds.), 2019, (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

“Global Economy in Transition and the Outlook for the United States and Canada” (with Hamid Faruqee, Kotaro Ishi and Andrea Pescatori). Chapter 1 of the April 2016 Western Hemisphere Regional Economic Outlook.

“Managing Capital Inflows: What Tools to Use?” (with Jonathan D. Ostry, Atish R. Ghosh, Karl Habermeier, Luc Laeven, Mahvash S. Qureshi, and Annamaria Kokenyne). IMF Staff Discussion Note No. 11.6.

“Capital Inflows: The Role of Controls” (with Jonathan D. Ostry, Atish R. Ghosh, Karl Habermeier, Mahvash S. Qureshi, and Dennis B.S. Reinhardt). IMF Staff Position Note No. 2010/04. Covered in the The Economist.

“Coping with the Crisis: Policy Options for Emerging Market Countries” (with Atish R. Ghosh, Christopher Crowe, Jun I. Kim and Jonathan D. Ostry). IMF Staff Position Note No. 2009/08. Covered in The Economist.

IMF Board Papers to which I contributed

The Fund’s Lending Framework and Sovereign Debt—Further Considerations, 2015.

The Fund's Lending Framework and Sovereign Debt—Preliminary Considerations, 2014.

The IMF-FSB Early Warning Exercise—Design and Methodological Toolkit, 2010.

Review of Fund Facilities—Analytical Basis for Fund Lending and Reform Options, 2009.

Assessing Underlying Vulnerabilities and Crisis Risks in Emerging Market Countries—A New Approach, 2007.

Sovereign Debt Structure for Crisis Prevention (with Eduardo Borensztein, Olivier Jeanne, Paolo Mauro and Jeromin Zettelmeyer), 2005, International Monetary Fund, IMF Occasional Papers: 237.

Book Chapters

“Why Intervene?” (with Nicolas Magud) in Marcos Chamon, David Hofman, Nicolas E. Magud and Alejandro Werner (eds.), Foreign Exchange Interventions in Inflation Targeters in Latin America (Washington: International Monetary Fund), 2019.

“The Effectiveness of Intervention” (with David Hofman, Sergi Lanau, Umang Rawat and Miklos Vari) in Marcos Chamon, David Hofman, Nicolas E. Magud and Alejandro Werner, (eds.), Foreign Exchange Interventions in Inflation Targeters in Latin America (Washington: International Monetary Fund), 2019.

“Intervention Under Inflation Targeting” (with David Hofman, Nicolas E. Magud, Umang Rawat and Alejandro Werner) in Marcos Chamon, David Hofman, Nicolas E. Magud and Alejandro Werner, (eds.), Foreign Exchange Interventions in Inflation Targeters in Latin America (Washington: International Monetary Fund), 2019.

“Reinvigorating Growth in the Caribbean” (with Joshua Charap, Qiaoe Chen, Daniel Leigh, Franz Loyola and Lulu Shui) in Krishna Srinivasan, Inci Otker, Uma Ramakrishnan, and Trevor Alleyne (eds.) Unleashing Growth and Strengthening Resilience in the Caribbean (Washington: International Monetary Fund), 2017.

“Foreign Currency Debt” in Gerard Caprio Jr. (editor in chief), Handbook of Safeguarding Global Financial Stability, Elsevier, 2012.

“Predictive Indicators of Financial Crises” in Gerard Caprio Jr. (editor in chief), Handbooks in Financial Globalization: The Evidence and Impact of Financial Globalization, Elsevier, 2012.

“Access to Finance and Household Saving” (with Sonali Jain Chandra), in Vivek Arora and Roberto Cardarelli (eds.), Rebalancing Growth in Asia: Economic Dimensions for China (Washington: International Monetary Fund), 2011.

“Why do Countries Borrow the Way They Borrow” (with Ricardo Hausmann), in Barry Eichengreen and Ricardo Hausman (eds.), Debt Denomination and Financial Instability in Emerging Market Economies (Chicago: University of Chicago Press), 2004.





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