In this article, we will give you an overview of the main features and benefits of Palisade Decision Tools Suite 5.7 and show you how to use some of the most popular tools in the suite, such as @RISK, RISKOptimizer, PrecisionTree, StatTools, NeuralTools, and Evolver.
What is Palisade Decision Tools Suite 5.7?
Palisade Decision Tools Suite 5.7 is a collection of eight programs that work together to provide a complete risk and decision analysis toolkit in Microsoft Excel. The suite includes the following tools (note that not all tools are available in all editions):
@RISK: A tool for risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation that shows you many possible outcomes in your spreadsheet and how likely they are to occur.
RISKOptimizer: A tool for optimization under uncertainty that combines genetic algorithms with Monte Carlo simulation to find the best solution to your problem.
PrecisionTree: A tool for decision analysis using decision trees and influence diagrams that let you visually map out complex decisions and choose the best option.
StatTools: A tool for statistics and forecasting that replaces Excel's built-in statistics functions with more accurate and comprehensive ones.
NeuralTools: A tool for predictive neural networks that learns from your data and makes predictions based on patterns and trends.
Evolver: A tool for sophisticated optimization that uses genetic algorithms to solve complex problems that cannot be solved by conventional methods.
TopRank: A tool for what-if sensitivity analysis that automatically finds and varies all input cells that affect your output cells.
ScheduleRiskAnalysis: A tool for managing uncertainty in project schedules that integrates with Microsoft Project and performs Monte Carlo simulation on your project plan.
Palisade Decision Tools Suite 5.7 works seamlessly with Microsoft Excel and allows you to use any Excel formula or function in your models. You can also use VBA macros to automate your analyses and customize your reports. Palisade Decision Tools Suite 5.7 is compatible with Windows 10, 8.x, 7, Vista, Server 2019/2016/2012/2008; Excel 2019/2016/2013/2010/2007; Project 2019/2016/2013/2010; and Office 365 (desktop installations only).
Why use Palisade Decision Tools Suite 5.7?
Palisade Decision Tools Suite 5.7 can help you improve your decision making process by providing you with:
A better understanding of the uncertainty and risk involved in your situation.
A range of possible outcomes and their probabilities instead of a single point estimate.
A way to compare different alternatives and scenarios based on their expected values and risks.
A method to optimize your decisions under uncertainty by finding the best combination of variables that maximize your objectives or minimize your costs.
A tool to communicate your results and recommendations clearly and effectively using graphs, charts, tables, and reports.
Palisade Decision Tools Suite 5.7 can help you solve various types of problems, such as:
Investment planning and portfolio optimization
Oil, gas, and mineral reserves estimation
Supply chain management and logistics
Cost estimation and budgeting
Engineering reliability and quality control
Project planning and scheduling
Marketing research and demand forecasting
Credit risk analysis and loan pricing
Insurance loss modeling and premium calculation
And many more...
How to use Palisade Decision Tools Suite 5.7?
The following sections will give you a brief introduction to some of the most popular tools in Palisade Decision Tools Suite 5.7 and show you how to use them in a simple example. For more detailed information and tutorials, please refer to the user manuals or online help of each tool.
How to use @RISK to perform risk analysis with Monte Carlo simulation?
@RISK is a tool for risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation that shows you many possible outcomes in your spreadsheet
How to use RISKOptimizer to optimize decisions under uncertainty?
RISKOptimizer is a tool for optimization under uncertainty that combines genetic algorithms with Monte Carlo simulation to find the best solution to your problem. Genetic algorithms are a type of evolutionary algorithm that mimic the process of natural selection to search for optimal solutions in a large and complex space. Monte Carlo simulation is a technique that generates many possible scenarios for a given situation and shows you how likely they are to occur.
To use RISKOptimizer, you need to define four elements in your Excel spreadsheet:
The uncertain inputs or assumptions, such as costs, revenues, demand, etc. You can assign probability distributions to these inputs using @RISK functions.
The model or calculation that relates the inputs to the outputs, such as profit, cash flow, return on investment, etc. You can use any Excel formula or function for this.
The outputs or results that you want to optimize, such as the maximum profit, minimum cost, highest return, etc. You can use @RISK statistics functions or graphs for this.
The adjustable cells or variables that you want to change to optimize your outputs, such as the price, quantity, allocation, etc. You can specify the range and type of values for these cells using RISKOptimizer settings.
Once you have defined these elements, you can run an optimization by clicking on the Start Optimization button in the RISKOptimizer ribbon. RISKOptimizer will generate and evaluate thousands of solutions by randomly changing the values of the adjustable cells and performing Monte Carlo simulation on each solution. You can then view the results in various formats, such as summary statistics, progress charts, solution reports, etc.
For example, suppose you want to optimize the allocation of your investment portfolio among different assets (such as stocks, bonds, real estate, or projects) to maximize your return while minimizing your risk. You can use RISKOptimizer to model the uncertainty in the returns and risks of each asset and find the best combination of weights for your portfolio.
The following screenshot shows an example of an Excel spreadsheet with RISKOptimizer settings and graphs:
The following screenshot shows an example of a summary report that displays the optimal solution and its statistics:
How to use PrecisionTree to create and analyze decision trees?
PrecisionTree is a tool for decision analysis using decision trees and influence diagrams that let you visually map out complex decisions and choose the best option. Decision trees are graphical representations of sequential decisions and their possible outcomes. Influence diagrams are graphical representations of causal relationships among variables and decisions.
To use PrecisionTree, you need to define three elements in your Excel spreadsheet:
The decision nodes or choices that you have to make, such as whether to invest in a project, launch a product, accept an offer, etc. You can assign probabilities and values to these nodes using PrecisionTree functions.
The chance nodes or uncertain events that affect your decisions, such as market demand, customer preference, competitor behavior, etc. You can assign probability distributions to these nodes using @RISK functions.
The end nodes or final outcomes that result from your decisions, such as profit, loss, market share, customer satisfaction, etc. You can use any Excel formula or function for this.
Once you have defined these elements, you can create a decision tree by clicking on the Insert Node button in the PrecisionTree ribbon. PrecisionTree will automatically draw the tree in a separate worksheet and link it to your spreadsheet. You can then analyze the tree by clicking on the Analyze Tree button in the PrecisionTree ribbon. PrecisionTree will perform various types of analyses, such as expected value, risk profile, sensitivity analysis, etc.
For example, suppose you want to analyze whether to invest in a new product development project. You can use PrecisionTree to model the uncertainty in the project cost, market size, market share and price. You can then calculate the expected net present value (NPV) of the project and see how sensitive it is to different factors.
The following screenshot shows an example of an Excel spreadsheet with PrecisionTree functions:
The following screenshot shows an example of a decision tree that displays the expected values and optimal decisions:
How to use StatTools to perform statistical analysis and forecasting?
StatTools is a tool for statistics and forecasting that replaces Excel's built-in statistics functions with more accurate and comprehensive ones. StatTools covers a wide range of statistical topics, such as descriptive statistics, hypothesis testing, regression analysis, time series analysis, quality control charts, etc.
To use StatTools, you need to define two elements in your Excel spreadsheet:
The data set or range of cells that contains your data, such as sales figures, customer ratings, product measurements, etc. You can specify the variable names and types for your data using StatTools settings.
The analysis or procedure that you want to perform on your data set, such as summary statistics, confidence intervals, ANOVA, correlation, ARIMA forecasting, etc. You can select the analysis from the StatTools menu or ribbon.
Once you have defined these elements, you can run an analysis by clicking on the Run button in the StatTools dialog box. StatTools will perform the analysis and display the results in a separate worksheet or report window. You can then view the results in various formats, such as tables, charts
Conclusion
Palisade Decision Tools Suite 5.7 is a powerful and versatile set of software tools that can help you perform various types of data analysis and risk management in Microsoft Excel. Whether you want to simulate possible scenarios, optimize your decisions, create decision trees, perform statistical tests, forecast future trends, or solve complex problems, Palisade Decision Tools Suite 5.7 has a tool for you. By using Palisade Decision Tools Suite 5.7, you can improve your decision making process and make better decisions with confidence.
If you want to learn more about Palisade Decision Tools Suite 5.7 and how to use it, you can visit the Palisade website or contact their support team. You can also download a free trial version of the software and try it for yourself.
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