Working Papers
Counter-Cyclical Fiscal Rules and the Zero Lower Bound (with Sebastian Hauptmeier and Christophe Kamps). ECB Working Paper No. 2715.
Abstract:
We analyse the effectiveness of optimal simple and implementable monetary and fiscal policy rules in stabilising economic activity, inflation and government debt in face of an occasionally binding lower bound on the nominal interest rate in a New Keynesian model. We show that, within the traditional assignment of active monetary policy and passive fiscal policy, the optimal fiscal policy rule features a strong counter-cyclical response to the deviation of inflation from the central bank’s target - providing significant macroeconomic stabilisation especially at the lower bound - while also featuring a strong response to government debt. Our quantitative results show that the optimal counter-cyclical fiscal feedback to inflation significantly improves welfare and reduces the lower-bound frequency. In addition, the optimal simple monetary and fiscal rules almost completely resolve the deflationary bias associated with the lower bound.
Best Paper Award 2nd Conference on Behavioral Research in Finance, Governance, and Accounting, 2020.
Abstract:
We incorporate expectations heterogeneity across age groups into a New Keynesian model with overlapping generations by assuming that agents only use lifetime observations to forecast inflation and the output gap. Relative to a model version with homogenous expectations, the transmission of monetary policy on inflation is impaired and its stabilisation trade-off under supply shocks aggravates. Since aggregate expectations are a function of the age-distribution, a demographic variation affects the monetary policy transmission on inflation through a composition effect on aggregate expectations. An increase in the share of old individuals enhances the monetary policy transmission on inflation and attenuates its stabilisation trade-off via the composition effect.