Let It Rain Instrumental Mp3 2021 Download

Instrumental variable (IV) analysis assumes the instrument only affects the dependent variable via its relationship with the independent variable. Other possible causal routes from the IV to the dependent variable are exclusion-restriction violations and invalidate the instrument. Weather has been widely used as an instrumental variable in social science to predict many different variables. The use of weather to instrument different independent variables represents strong prima facie evidence of exclusion violations for all studies using weather IVs. A review of 289 studies reveals 195 variables previously linked to weather: all representing potential exclusion violations. Using sensitivity analysis, I show that the magnitude of many of these violations is sufficient to overturn numerous existing IV results. I conclude with practical steps to systematically review existing literature to identify possible exclusion violations when using IV designs.

Enter the short paper by Heather Sarsons that directly investigates the exclusion restriction assumption, albeit in a different setting. Sarsons investigates rainfall and civil conflict (in the form of internecine riots) in India. She exploits the fact that agricultural production in some districts in India is largely rain-fed while in other districts the majority of agriculture is irrigated through the use of dams. As expected, agricultural wages in rain-fed districts are responsive to rain and, when rain is sufficient and wages high, internecine conflict is also significantly lower. So far this story is completely consistent with previous work such as Miguel and co-authors.

Let It Rain Instrumental Mp3 Download

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So, there is a positive relationship between rainfall and income in largely agrarian economies. So, less rain may lead to greater civil conflict. But you are also suggesting that more rain leads to less civil conflict: no one wants to go outside in the rain. So, maybe there's some degree of endogeneity, but these relationships aren't very clear.

It seems that the first relationship is largely a function of long-term cumulative rainfall over a growing season, which may last 3-6 months. Whereas the second relationship seems to depend on a more immediate relationship between today's rainfall and today's demonstrations, or perhaps rainfall over the past week that makes travel conditions difficult. Since most demonstrations occur in urban areas, however, is the concern about travel conditions fully justified?

Thanks for the comment! Most of these studies are constrained to look at annual aggregates of rainfall and conflict incidence. I agree that higher frequency data would be able to better distinguish between the oossible causal channels.

In my grad metrics class, I actually had my students perform a similar identification check with Miguel et al.'s own data. If you restrict the estimation to countries for which the first stage relationships do not hold, then the reduced form correlation between rainfall growth and conflict is zero. So no reason to reject exclusion on the basis of this test. This points to the fact that the India results may not be relevant to the Miguel et al. findings, which are driven by conflict dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa.

There is evidence that, in some contexts, income shocks cause conflict. The literature demonstrating this relationship uses rainfall shocks to instrument for income shocks, arguing that in agriculturally-dependent regions, negative rain shocks lower income which incites violence. This identification strategy relies on the assumption that rainfall shocks affect conflict only through their impacts on income. This paper evaluates this exclusion restriction in the context of religious conflict in India. Using data on dam construction, I identify districts that are downstream from irrigation dams and show that income in these areas is much less sensitive to rainfall fluctuations. However, rain shocks remain equally strong predictors of riot incidence in these districts. I explore other channels through which rainfall might affect conflict.

A combination of instrumental and preconcentration neutron activation analysis (NAA) methods has been developed for multielement determination in acid rain. Concentrations of 24 elements have been measured in the particulate matter of rainwater by the instrumental NAA method which involves 3 irradiation and 4 counting periods. Trace elements in the soluble fraction of rainwater have been preconcentrated using Chelex-100 resin. Various factors that could influence the retention of elements on to the resin have been examined, and reagent and other blanks investigated in detail. Concentrations of 15 elements have been measured by directly irradiating the resins. A graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry method has been used for determining Cd and Pb levels in the soluble fraction. Precision and accuracy of the methods have been evaluated, and limits of detection and determination calculated. The methods have been applied to rainwater samples collected from 36 locations across Canada. Enrichment factors, interelement and inter-ion concentration correlation coefficients are discussed 17dc91bb1f