I work at the Central Bank of Brazil. Prior to that, I joined the Bank of England as a PhD Intern at the Modelling Team of the Monetary Policy Outlook Division, and I also worked at the National Treasury. I hold a PhD in Economics from Queen Mary University of London. My primary research interests are empirical macroeconomics and forecasting.
Email: leonardo.ferreira@bcb.gov.br Github: github.com/leonardonferreira
Work in Progress
Macroeconomic Dynamics across the Centuries: Evidence from the UK, with Haroon Mumtaz and Gábor Pintér
Central bank signal or noise?, with Caio Garzeri, Diogo Guillén and Antônio David Lima
The macroeconomic implications of fiscal stress, with Gian Paulo Soave
Working Papers
- Working Paper Series No. 573, Central Bank of Brazil, Jan 2023.
Forecasting with VAR-teXt and DFM-teXt models: exploring the predictive power of central bank communication, June 2022. Under Review.
- Working Paper Series No. 559, Central Bank of Brazil, Nov 2021. Best Economics Paper of the Working Paper Series of 2021.
Publications
Bayesian Local Projections, with Silvia Miranda-Agrippino and Giovanni Ricco. The Review of Economics and Statistics, forthcoming.
- Working Paper Series No. 581, Central Bank of Brazil, May 2023.
- Working Paper Series No. 2023-4, CREST, Fev 2023.
- Codes: github.com/leonardonferreira/BLP
Forward Guidance Matters: Disentangling Monetary Policy Shocks, Journal of Macroeconomics, Volume 73, September 2022.
- Working Paper Series No. 530, Central Bank of Brazil, Aug 2020. Best Economics Paper of the Working Paper Series of 2020.
- Media coverage (in Portuguese): Valor Econômico
- (Very) short video: MMF Society
Macroprudential Policy in a DSGE Model: anchoring the countercyclical capital buffer, with Márcio I. Nakane. Economics Bulletin, 38(4), 2345-2352, 2018.
- Longer version: Working Paper Series No. 407, Central Bank of Brazil, Dec 2015
- Ministry of Finance Award 2014, Second Best Macro Paper
Book Chapters
Infrastructure Financing: analysis of the potential impact of regulatory changes (available in Portuguese only). In: Salviano Júnior, C; R. J. G. de Andrade; V. R. Brandi (Orgs.). Estudos sobre Regulação Financeira. Brasília: Banco Central do Brasil, 2017. Ch. 6. p. 129-154.
Policy
The Rise of Risk: From Science to Regulation, with Antônio J. D. Lima and Vinicius R. Brandi. Manuscript presented at the XII Annual Seminar on Risk, Financial Stability and Banking of the Central Bank of Brazil, 2017.
Referee Activity
Journal of Macroeconomics, International Journal of Finance and Economics, International Economics, Central Bank of Brazil Working Paper Series
Discussions
Discussion of Costa et al. (2022): "Predicting recessions in real time using big data and canonical correlation". VII Workshop da Rede de Pesquisa do Banco Central.
Discussion of Tomio and Vallet (2021): "Carry trade and negative interest rate policy in Switzerland: Low-lying fog or storm?". 49th National Meeting of Economics (Brazil).
Discussion of Caldeira, Santos and Torrent (2021): "Semiparametric Portfolio Policies". 21th Brazilian Finance Meeting.
Discussion of Gnan and Rieder (2021): "Who Talks During Monetary Policy Quiet Periods, and Why? Evidence from the European Central Bank's Governing Council". 25th Spring Meeting of the European Association of Young Economists.
Discussion of Acosta-Smith, Bassanin and Sabuga (2021): "Dynamics of the Output Floor: A Model-Based Assessment". 8th Annual MMF PhD Conference.
@ Porthchapel Beach, Cornwall