Work in Progress

• A Milennium of Business Cycles: Evidence from the UK, with Haroon Mumtaz and Gábor Pintér

*Presented at the Workshop in Empirical and Theoretical Economics (King's College London)

• Climate and Macroeconomic Volatility, with Fulvia Marotta and Marco Tibullo

*Presented at De Nederlandsche Bank, the Second International Conference on the Climate-Macro-Finance Interface, ECB Climate Change and Price Stability Workshop 

• The not so quiet revolution: signal and noise in central bank communication, with Caio Garzeri, Diogo Guillen, Antônio Lima and Victor Monteiro

*Presented at 2024 CEMLA Conference - XXIX Meeting of the Central Bank Researchers Network, 46th Meeting of the Brazilian Econometric Society, and the Central Bank of Brazil

• The heterogenous impact of inflation uncertainty, with Gian Paulo Soave

Working Papers

• Monetary policy surprises, financial conditions, and the string theory revisited

- Working Paper Series No. 573, Central Bank of Brazil, Jan 2023.

• Forecasting with VAR-teXt and DFM-teXt models: exploring the predictive power of central bank communication, June 2022. 

- Working Paper Series No. 559, Central Bank of Brazil, Nov 2021. Best Economics Paper of the Working Paper Series of 2021. 

Publications

• Bayesian Local Projections, with Silvia Miranda-Agrippino and Giovanni Ricco. The Review of Economics and Statistics, forthcoming.

- Working Paper Series No. 581, Central Bank of Brazil, May 2023.

- Working Paper Series No. 2023-4, CREST, Fev 2023.

- Codes: github.com/leonardonferreira/BLP  

• Forward Guidance Matters: Disentangling Monetary Policy Shocks, Journal of Macroeconomics, Volume 73, September 2022. 

- Working Paper Series No. 530, Central Bank of Brazil, Aug 2020. Best Economics Paper of the Working Paper Series of 2020.

- Media coverage (in Portuguese):  Valor Econômico

- (Very) short video: MMF Society

• Macroprudential Policy in a DSGE Model: anchoring the countercyclical capital buffer, with Márcio I. Nakane. Economics Bulletin, 38(4), 2345-2352, 2018. 

- Longer version: Working Paper Series No. 407, Central Bank of Brazil, Dec 2015

- Ministry of Finance Award 2014, Second Best Macro Paper

Book Chapters

• Infrastructure Financing: analysis of the potential impact of regulatory changes (available in Portuguese only). In: Salviano Júnior, C; R. J. G. de Andrade; V. R. Brandi (Orgs.). Estudos sobre Regulação Financeira. Brasília: Banco Central do Brasil, 2017. Ch. 6. p. 129-154.      

Blog Post           

• Uma medida alternativa de incerteza para o  Brasil.   Série.

Policy           

• The Rise of Risk: From Science to Regulation, with Antônio J. D. Lima and Vinicius R. Brandi. XII Annual Seminar on Risk, Financial Stability and Banking of the Central Bank of Brazil, 2017.           

Referee Activity       

• Review of Economic Studies, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Journal of Macroeconomics, International Journal of Finance and Economics, International Economics, Central Bank of Brazil Working Paper Series

Discussions       

• Discussion of Costa et al. (2022): "Predicting recessions in real time using big data and canonical correlation".  VII Workshop da Rede de Pesquisa do Banco Central. 

• Discussion of Tomio and Vallet (2021):  "Carry trade and negative interest rate policy in Switzerland: Low-lying fog or storm?". 49th National Meeting of Economics (Brazil).

• Discussion of Caldeira, Santos and Torrent (2021): "Semiparametric Portfolio Policies". 21th Brazilian Finance Meeting. 

• Discussion of Gnan and Rieder (2021): "Who Talks During Monetary Policy Quiet Periods, and Why? Evidence from the European Central Bank's Governing Council". 25th Spring Meeting of the European Association of Young Economists.

• Discussion of Acosta-Smith, Bassanin and Sabuga (2021): "Dynamics of the Output Floor: A Model-Based Assessment". 8th Annual MMF PhD Conference.