Leandro De Magalhaes (pronounced Magellan in English)
Senior Lecturer
School of Economics, University of Bristol
leandro.demagalhaes@bristol.ac.uk
Ph.D. Bocconi University
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Published papers
How Much Should We Trust Regression Discontinuity Design Estimates? Evidence from Experimental Benchmarks of the Incumbency Advantage. With D. Hangartner, S. Hirvonen, J. Merilainen, N. Ruiz, and J. Tukiainen. Political Analysis, 2025. Read here .
A second chance elsewhere. Re-running for parliament after a close race defeat: UK vs US. With Salomo Hirvonen.
Electoral Studies, vol.83 (2023). Read here.
War and the Rise of Parliaments. With Francesco Giovannoni.
European Economic Review (2022), vol. 148.
Estimating slim-majority effects in US state legislatures with a regression discontinuity design under local randomization assumptions.
Political Science Research and Methods (2021), vol 9, pp. 665–674 .
Read here. Replication Material.
The Costs of Consumption Smoothing: Less Schooling and Less Nutrition. With Don Koh and Raul Santaeulalia-Llopis.
Journal of Demographic Economics (2019), vol 85, pp. 181-208.
The Consumption, Income and Wealth of the Poorest: An Empirical Analysis of Economic Inequality in Rural and Urban Sub-Saharan Africa for Macroeconomists. With Raul Santaeulalia-Llopis.
Journal of Development Economics (2018), vol 134, pp. 350-371.
Read here. Online appendix. Data and Replication material. Data Construction files.
Media coverage: Politifact. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper version. Read here.
Incumbency Effects in a Comparative Perspective: Evidence from Brazilian Mayoral Elections.
Political Analysis (2015), vol 23, pp.113-126.
Read here. Replication material.
Separation of Powers and the Tax Level in the U.S. States. With Lucas Ferrero.
Southern Economic Journal (2015), vol 82, pp.598-619.
Read here. Media coverage: Providence Journal
Book chapters
Political Transitions in Ancient Greece and Medieval Italy: An Analytic Narrative. In Advances in Political Economy. Edited by N. Schofield, Springer (2013). Read here.
Working Papers
Political Careers in Brazil: The Effect of Winning Vs.Being the Runner-Up. With Thomaz Gemignani and Salomo Hirvonen. Read here .
Could Regression Discontinuity estimates of incumbency effects help monitor parliamentary elections? Evidence from Malawi. With Isabel Spirgel-Sinclair. Read here.
Cross-country comparison of Incumbency Advantage: the need for bounds and evidence from 19 countries. With Salomo Hirvonen. Read here
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