Heading into last week, a Miami Dolphins loss felt like a totally acceptable, and perhaps even likely, outcome. Heading out of it though? Suddenly the very entirety of the 2022 season feels like it could be on the line this Sunday night against the One Day I’ll Remember They Moved From San Diego To Los Angeles Chargers.

Amazing how quickly the sense of how a season is going can change, isn’t it?

Unfortunately, that’s what a trio of Tua Tagovailoa turnovers will do to you. Well that, and Miami’s defense getting shredded by a 7th round draft pick quarterback whose only realistic NFL aspiration is to one day grow up to be Ken Dorsey. The Dolphins did nothing well last week in a complete team loss that cost them first place in the AFC East, and knocked them from 2nd to 6th in the AFC playoff picture.

In short, plenty to still feel positive about. Then again, plenty to make one start to feel a little nervous after nearly three months of bliss. If only this was as simple as being a glass half empty/glass half full person, or to put it in modern terms, to be or not to be a Twitter user. What it comes down to for Dolphins fans, and national pundits, is how much baggage they bring with them into this Sunday’s showdown with the playoff hopeful Chargers, and how far back in time they reach for that baggage.

If you go only by 2022, then last weekend hardly matters. Miami’s best lineman wasn’t playing, and San Francisco boasts the best defense in the league. No shame in losing to a better team, and minimal damage when it’s a non-conference opponent. They can learn from this, come back stronger. Once Armstead is back, the offense will be back to putting up 30 points a game again, and there’s a very good case to be made that all that matters for this Miami roster is just getting into the playoffs and doing so healthy. They won’t face a defense as good as the 49ers the rest of the way.

But if you look back over the past few seasons, that’s where things get concerning. Because that’s when you have to remember moments like last year in Tennessee. Or the year before in Buffalo. Late season games with high stakes where Tua faltered, and failed to do enough to push the Dolphins into the playoffs. It’s really the only thing he hasn’t proven yet in this breakout season, win the big one. True, there were those Baltimore and Buffalo games, but until Tua wins a game this month, you’re going to hear more and more about how injury decimated those Baltimore and Buffalo secondaries were at the time. That, and how little September games really mean.

By the way, that last knock isn’t even all on Tua. The last time the Miami Dolphins beat a team with a winning record? That would be back in Week 3.

Fortunately for the Dolphins, the Chargers don’t have one of those.

Sitting at 6-6, this game is a must win for Los Angeles, as they will need every tiebreaker they can get to make the playoffs at this point. A fact that is pretty surprising when you think about all the offensive firepower they have, and then makes a ton of sense when you find out how horrible they have been defensively. That, and how beat up they have been injury wise. They are starting to get healthier though, and they certainly need the win more.

Of course, that’s not to say the Dolphins don’t want this one themselves. Tagovailoa was very candid with reporters this week on the team needing to improve and respond positively to last week’s setback. Particularly himself. Tagovailoa has also been pretty candid this season at times when it comes to the narrative(s) surrounding his NFL career to this point, and you have to think he would love to outduel Justin Herbert in primetime. Not to mention the fact that winning this one would all but ensure Miami makes the playoffs- FiveThiryEight gives them a 97% chance of making it with a win Sunday.

Obviously, the battle of two Top 6 draft picks in the 2020 NFL Draft will be the lead story everyone will be following this Sunday night. However, it could be the ground game that proves decisive. The Chargers Austin Ekeler is a phenomenal talent, and does a lot of the same things Christian McCaffrey does for the 49ers- Miami will need to learn quickly from last week’s mistakes on that score. As for the Dolphins running game, there’s good news when it comes to the Chargers defense. Per a Miami Herald report earlier this week, the Chargers are allowing the most yards per carry to opposing running backs since the AFL-NFL merger. Which makes it sound an awfully lot like the game script that could best lead Miami to victory could be the same one deployed three games ago against the Browns, where Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson put up nearly 200 yards on the ground.

Oh, and one more fun plot point to ponder: between McDaniel and Brandon Staley, will a punter ever take the field? That’s probably an exaggeration, but if you were to throw out a total of three punts in this one, I’d bet the under.

Prediction? Tua plays much better than he did last week, and silences the doubters. But the Dolphins lose anyway thanks to a heartbreaking Herbert comeback. Mike Williams coming back is a big problem, and the defense will struggle to keep up with the Chargers’ weapons.

Los Angeles 28, Miami 27