2022-2023 Miami Dolphins Season Preview

Bottom line? It’s playoffs or bust for the 2022-2023 Miami Dolphins.

That’s just the cold reality of the situation when the other three major professional sports teams in the South Florida market can claim more recent playoff trips, and playoff wins, than the Dolphins can. A whole generation of Fins fans have been born, reached adulthood, and become old enough to buy a round at the local sports bar since Miami’s last playoff victory in 2001. This season’s 50th anniversary tribute to the 1972 Perfect Season is going to feel much more like an indictment than a celebration if serious progress isn’t made.

Fortunately, everything about the Dolphins offseason (for better or worse) indicates that the team’s brain trust is acutely aware of that fact. A revamped coaching staff, massive talent infusion, and a summer full of expressed confidence in the starting quarterback all point to big things being on the horizon. Granted, this isn’t the first time the Dolphins have “won” the offseason. But it is the first time in a long time they have done it this dramatically, and something about it does just feel different.

What Went Right This Offseason…

The Fins made a very well received coaching hire in Mike McDaniel, the former San Francisco offensive coordinator. While Kyle Shannahan certainly deserves the lion’s share of the credit for that team’s success these past five seasons, McDaniel had a big hand in shaping the rushing attack, and is viewed as one of the more intelligent and creative coaches in the game. That has Dolphins fans very excited about what he could do for Miami’s 28th ranked ground game and 32nd ranked offensive line.

Of course, it’s not all about who’s calling the X’s and O’s. The Dolphins swung for the fences in a big way when they shocked the league and traded for superstar receiver Tyreek Hill- without giving up any of Miami’s young stars in return. Coupled with the addition of a Pro Bowl left tackle in Terron Armstead, another notable offensive line upgrade in Connor Williams, and some exciting new running backs in Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert, and it’s fair to say Miami fans haven’t been this pumped about the offense in at least a decade. And that’s without even mentioning new receivers Cedric Wilson Jr. and Erik Ezukanma.

Miami’s offense in a nutshell? Two of the five fastest players in Madden 23 wear aqua.

So there’s no shortage of weapons for starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa heading into that pivotal Year 3 for QB growth. Plenty of weapons, and also plenty of support. McDaniel and Hill have bent over backwards praising Tua in a way that was not seen in Miami the past two seasons.

…And What Went Wrong

Pretty much everything off the field.

McDaniel was a well regarded hire, but there is the small matter of why he was hired to begin with. Former head coach Brian Flores had just put together consecutive winning seasons, a feat last accomplished by a Dolphins head coach in 2003. However, that was not enough to keep him from losing his job just twenty-four hours after beating the rival Patriots for the second time that season.

If only that were the end of it. Flores quickly turned around and` aq sued the organization for wrongful termination, sparking a league wide debate about racial discrimination in hiring practices. He also specifically called out Dolphins owner Stephen Ross for allegedly offering him $100,000 dollars per loss back in 2019, and for trying to get him to tamper with another team’s starting quarterback.

Six months later, the NFL found out said tampering did occur. The Dolphins were stripped of a first round pick in this April’s draft, and Ross was suspended for multiple games. Ross cheated, badly, and humiliated the organization.

It’s probably going to come up, a lot, over the course of the 2022 season.

Biggest Games To Watch

A quick peek at Miami’s schedule shows three big events: Miami opens against New England again, Tua vs Burrow and Herbert, and the Dolphins play a game on Christmas Day.

Sure, it’s a little weird with the Patriots, though at least they don’t have to open on the road again. Yes, you might have heard something about Tua being part of the same draft class as Burrow and Herbert, and being selected ahead of Herbert. Absolutely, nothing pairs so nicely with a holiday weekend like Dolphins football. All fun.

But none of those are the biggest, most monumental game on the schedule.

No, that’s coming in Week 3, when Josh Allen’s Buffalo Bills come to town. Miami has lost six straight games to Buffalo, and that’s effectively been the difference between playoffs or not these past two seasons. What’s more, the past three matchups haven’t even been remotely close.

If any of the apparent progress this offseason has actually been progress, it needs to show in this one. Calling any Week 3 contest must win is probably pushing it, especially against a team many view as the Super Bowl favorite. But it kind of is in this case. At the very least, it has to be

close, and Tua needs to hold his own against Allen.

More generally, take the entire four game opening stretch. Buffalo is the most important among them, but all four are against presumptive playoff contenders (NE, BAL, BUF, CIN). A 2-2 record or better, and fans can start thinking about the postseason. If it’s 1-3 or worse, it will be just as difficult a road as it has been the last two seasons.

Biggest Questions

How important are head coaches anyway? We’ve covered the offensive side of things already, and the big expectations that Mike McDaniel can make Miami’s offense hum without Kyle Shannahan. But what about Miami’s defense? That was a big part of Brian Flores’ identity with this team. It’s now up to defensive coordinator Josh Boyer to show that just as much of the Dolphins aggressive, physical play on that side of the ball was his doing, and not his former boss.

Secondly, was Miami’s D really that good? Most of the damage done during last year’s seven game winning streak came against quarterbacks better suited for early starts on their coaching careers, rather than leading an NFL team. Only three of last season’s nine wins came against a quarterback viewed as above average right now, and two of those were against rookie Mac Jones. Which makes the offseason approach to essentially run it back on defense more of a dice roll than one might think upon first glance. Whether or not the Dolphins get second year leaps from budding stars Jaelan Phillips and Jevon Holland will go a long way to answering this one.

None of that will matter much though if the answer to the biggest question of the Dolphins season, if not this Dolphins decade, is a resounding yes. Does Tua take the leap, and show he’s an above average NFL starting quarterback?

Predicted Record

Following that formidable opening slate, the Dolphins should actually be favorites in their next seven games. If last season proved anything, it’s that big runs are possible. That Dolphins team rattled off seven straight wins after dropping seven straight losses. Theoretically, this team is better, so better results should be the expectation.

Now, whether that’s good enough for the playoffs remains to be seen. It’s a loaded AFC this year. Three AFC East teams should all contend, which is one less contender than in the AFC West. And the other two divisions are hardly runways.

Look for the Dolphins to finish 10-7…and to need some things to bounce their way to make the playoffs for the first time since 2016.