Business Cycles Measurement and Forecasting
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"On the Variability of Real Interest Rates, Business Cycles and the Livingston Data," (with M. Zaporowski). Journal of Banking and Finance, 1984, 483-490.
�Introduction,� (with G.H. Moore), Chapter 1 in Leading Indicators: New Approaches and Forecasting Records (eds. K. Lahiri and G. Moore). Cambridge Univ. Press, 1990, 1-12.
"A Leading Indicator of Inflation Based on Interest Rates," (with S. Dasgupta), in Leading Indicators: New Approaches and Forecasting Records (eds. K. Lahiri and G. Moore). Cambridge Univ. Press, 1990, 339-353.
"Predicting Cyclical Turning Points with Leading Index in a Markov Switching Model," (with J. Wang). Journal of Forecasting, 1994, 245-263.
"Zinsdifferenzen als neue Fr�hindikatoren - Theorie und Evidenz," in Konjunktur - Indikatoren: Fakten, Analysen, Verwendung (Ed. K. H. Oppenl�nder), Oldenbourg Verlag, 1995, pp. 216- 232.
"Interest Rate Spreads as Predictors of Business Cycles," in Statistical Methods in Finance: Handbook of Statistics Vol. 14 (Eds. G.S.Maddala and C.R.Rao), North Holland, 1996, 297-15.
"A Time Series and Cross Sectional Analysis of Consumer Sentiment and Its Components,"(with D. Ivanova), In Social Structural Change - Consequences for Business Cycle Surveys,(Eds. K. H. Oppenl�nder and G. Poser), Aldershot: Ashgate Publishing, UK, 1998, 337-362.
"Interest Rate Spreads as Predictors of German Inflation and Business Cycle," (with D. Ivanova and F. Seitz), International Journal of Forecasting, 2000, 39-58.
�When Should We Care About Consumer Sentiment? Evidence From Linear and Markov-Switching Models,� (with D. Ivanova), Indian Economic Review, Special Issue on Business Cycles, Jan.-June 2001, 36, No. 1, 153-169.
�Introduction - Reassessing Modern Business Cycles,� (with K. Holden and P.A. Klein), International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 17, 2001, 329-332.
"The Value of Probability Forecasts as Predictors of Cyclical Downturns", (with J. Wang), Applied Economics Letters, 14, 2007, 11-14.
�Estimating International Transmission of Shocks Using GDP Forecasts: India and Its Trading Partners�, (with G. Isiklar). Development Macroeconomics, Essays in Memory of Anita Ghatak (Eds. S. Ghatak and P. Levine), Routledge, 2009, 123-162.
�Limits to Economic Forecasting�, Chapter 3 in Advances in Economic Forecasting, (ed. M. L.� Higgins) W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, Kalamazoo, MI., 2011, 25-49.
�Comment� on Forecast Rationality Tests based on Multi-Horizon Bounds by A. Patton and A. Timmermann, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 30 (1), 2012, 20-25.
�The yield spread puzzle and the information content of SPF forecasts�, (with G. Monokroussos and Y. Zhao). 2013, Economics Letters 18(1), 219-221.
�Editorial: Global Economic Linkages and Corporate Earnings�, (with J. Guerard), International Journal of Forecasting, 31, (2), 2015, 392�398.
�Further Analysis of The Conference Board�s New Leading Economic Index� (with Y. Liu). International Journal of Forecasting, 31 (2), 2015, 446�453.