Working Papers

"Decoupling Dollar and Treasury Privilege" with Wenxin Du and Ritt Keerati. October 2025.

"Geoconomic Pressure," with Antonio Coppola, Chris Clayton, and Matteo Maggiori.  April 2025. 

"A Theory of Economic Coercion and Fragmentation," with Chris Clayton and Matteo Maggiori. March 2024.

"The Geography of Capital Allocation in the Euro Area," with Roland Beck, Antonio Coppola, Angus Lewis, Matteo Maggiori, Martin Schmitz. Revise and Resubmit, Quarterly Journal of Economics. March 2023.

"International Currency Competition," with  Chris Clayton, Amanda Dos Santos, and Matteo Maggiori, November 2024.

Publications

"A Framework For Geoeconomics," with Chris Clayton and Matteo Maggiori. Forthcoming, Econometrica. June 2023. 

"Putting Economics Back Into Geoeconomics," with Chris Clayton and Matteo Maggiori. Prepared for the 2025 NBER Macro Annual. May 2025.

"Internationalizing Like China," with Christopher Clayton, Amanda Dos Santos, and Matteo Maggiori. Forthcoming, American Economic Review. September 2024.

"Corporate Debt Structure with Home and International Currency Bias," with Matteo Maggiori and Brent Neiman.  Forthcoming, IMF Economic Review. May 2024. 

"Central Bank Credibility and Fiscal Responsibility," with Pierre Yared and Emilio Zaratiegui. January 2024. Forthcoming, American Economic Review: Insights.

"Sources and Transmission of Country Risk," with Tarek Hassan, Markus Schwedeler, and Ahmed Tahoun. Review of Economics Studies 91(4), July 2024, Pages 2307-2346. 

"Sovereign Risk, Currency Risk, and Corporate Balance Sheets," with Wenxin Du.  Review of Financial Studies 35(10) 2022, Pages 4587-4629. 

• • Media: The Economist, Financial Times

"Redrawing the Map of Global Capital Flows: The Role of Cross-Border Financing and Tax Havens," with Antonio Coppola, Matteo Maggiori and Brent Neiman, Quarterly Journal of Economics, August 2021, 136(3), Pages 1499-1556. 

"Exchange Rate Reconnect," with Andrew Lilley, Matteo Maggiori, and Brent Neiman. Review of Economics and Statistics, 104(4) July 2022, Pages 845-855.

"Sovereign Debt Portfolios, Bond Risks, and the Credibility of Monetary Policy," with Wenxin Du and Carolin Pflueger.  Journal of Finance, December 2020, 75(6), Pages 3097-3138. 

"International Currencies and Capital Allocation," with Matteo Maggiori and Brent Neiman. Journal of Political Economy, June 2020,  126(6), Pages 2019-2066.  Appendix

• • Winner, 2018 AQR Insight Award

  • Media: WSJ, Forbes, Pensions and Investments, Marketwatch

  • Non-technical summary: Vox

"The U.S. Treasury Premium," with Wenxin Du and Joanne Im. Journal of International Economics, May 2018, 112, Pages 167-181. 

• • Media: NBER Digest

"The Costs of Sovereign Default: Evidence from Argentina," with Benjamin Hebert. American Economic Review, 107(10), October 2017, Pages 3119-3145.  Appendix, Video, Replication Code

"Local Currency Sovereign Risk," with Wenxin Du.  Journal of Finance, 71(3), June 2016, Pages 1027-1070. 

“Over-optimistic official forecasts and fiscal rules in the eurozone” with Jeffrey Frankel. Review of World Economics, 2013, 149(2), Pages 247-272.

• • Media: Financial Times

Non-Peer Reviewed Publications

"The Political Economy of Geoeconomic Power," with Chris Clayton and Matteo Maggiori. AEA Papers and Proceedings. May 2025. 

"Global Capital Allocation," with Sergio Florez-Orrego, Matteo Maggiori, Ziwen Sun, and Serdil Tinda. , Annual Review of Economics. April 2024. 

"China in Tax Havens," with Christopher Clayton, Antonio Coppola, Amanda Dos Santos, and Matteo Maggiori.  AEA Papers and Proceedings. May 2023. 

"CIP Deviations, the Dollar, and Frictions in International Capital Markets," with Wenxin Du. Handbook of International Economics, Volume 6, 2022,  Pages 147-197.

"The Rise of the Dollar and Fall of the Euro as International Currencies" with Matteo Maggiori and Brent Neiman. AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2019, 109(5), Pages 521-526.  Appendix

Other Writing

Congressional Testimony on "International Financial Institutions in an Age of Great Power Rivalry."  House Financial Services Committee, Subcommittee on National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institutions, May 25, 2023. Written Testimony, Full Hearing

Data

• Dataset for Covered Interest Rate Parity Deviations Between Government Bond Yields