My Thoughts on Climate Change

I have followed this since 1975. Here are my thoughts about what will be happening.

I am an optimist, and think that humans will get through this. Not without major challenges that will cause the death of a large number of people. Additionally, there are a lot of variables that could come into play that may plunge us into extinction. So, it is a guarded optimism.

2023 will be seen as the year Americans finally wake up and smell the coffee. And it smells like wildfires. People often ignore something happening to somewhere else. "If it's not happening to me, I don't care." Well, with all the wildfires, tornadoes, and especially wild weather extremes, it's happening. If you are not directly affected, you know someone who is. The long term severe heat waves has had a tremendous affect. It makes you think, this is only the beginning. It will get hotter and longer.

At this point it is like a runaway train. You just can't put on the brakes, we can only put pressure on politicians and corporations to make changes to mitigate the worse affects.

Here is the compiled thoughts of scientists who work with Climate Change:

With the rising heat, surface ice will melt, Ice caps will shrink and disappear. With all the new water, the oceans of the world will rise. Worst case estimate: 6 to 12 feet. Now, that doesn't sound like much, but it will be enough to submerge most of Florida, and make serious inroads to every river delta system. We like building big cities in delta regions. On a high tide with a storm moving in, the storm surge could easily inundate a large area. Only by constructing sea walls will some locations, such as New Orleans, survive where they are now. This is a slow advance in our time, but still may be happening faster than creating infrastructure to protect, or new construction to move people. 

The Human Climate Niche, the narrow range that is the most favorable to people, is moving North in the north hemisphere, South in the southern hemisphere. As we have long proven. Humans will live just about anywhere if there is a reason for them to be there. Technology comes into play. Without Air Conditioning, I'm sure you would not see five million people living in the Phoenix metro area. So I imagine there will always be people living, and in fact thriving, in places where a majority of people would not want to be.

With the additional water, and increasing heat, many issues will also be on the move. With water and heat, you get insects such as mosquitos, and they bring along friends like Malaria and Dengue fever. 2023 saw the first case of Dengue fever in Florida that DID NOT ORIGINATE elsewhere. It won't be the last.

Then you have the humidity. The body has a narrow limit of heat it can tolerate before things start to shut down. The main mechanism it uses to get rid of heat is sweating. If it is hot and humid enough, the sweat can not evaporate and create cooling. Learn how to recognize extreme heat conditions in people. It may look a little different in dry heat areas compared to wet heat areas, but the symptoms are the same.

Expect workers who work outside to start working in the early morning, or at night if they can. They won't be able to work as long in the heat. There will be a part of the day when almost everyone is indoors or a climate controlled area. I don't do the Stock Market, but I think companies that make air conditioners and dehumidifiers will do very well.

As the temperature zones move poleward, farmers are adjusting what they grow. Water is the major problem.  Drought limits how much they can get from rain, aquifers are being pumped dry with little chance for being replenished. Digging wells is expensive and so is irrigation. Expect to see a push for rainwater harvesting and dams to collect water. This will cause legal problems in the West, where every drop of water is already allocated. Where there is water, but not drinkable, expect new desalination technology to be used, and the problems that come with that as well. With extreme weather changes, killing drought can be accompanied by raging rainstorms that cause flooding. This is already happening in 2023. See California and the Midwest. So there may be water, but you will need to collect it for the dry times and hope it doesn't damage the crops.

The Bread basket of the country will also move North. As time goes on and the soil becomes tillable, Canada will even become even more necessary for our food. 

As trees are affected by drought, many die and we have seen the growth of wildfires. In 2023, wildfires in Canada sent smoke into the upper part of the US, causing health and safety problems. There will be more towns consumed by fire and health affected by smoke. I guess you could add air cleaners to your technology mix. 

Storm, Flood, and Wildfires kill people and cause widespread damage. Often requiring new construction. But funding for new construction is only possible if the risk can be financially mitigated. States are finding Insurance companies abandoning them as the risk is too great for them to go bankrupt. So the cost of insurance and housing for existing building also goes up. People can not afford to live there.

So you have Climate Refugees. They are already on the move. Some from other countries, a lot within the US. 

It will be even more important to come up with a working immigration plan to handle desperate people looking for a new place to simply live. This will affect our friendly neighbor to the North. Canada has a LOT of land and not that many people. They also have a tight immigration policy. Between increasingly favorable climate, becoming the new bread basket of the continent, and the inevitable influx of companies wanting to make them their new home, Canada will be an up and coming star. The vision the US once offered will also move to Canada. So will a lot of Climate Refugees. One concern is that the further North you go, you start running into bedrock, and soil that is not fit to grow all the food crops that will be needed.  It may take a lot of work to rework the soil to be as fertile as needed.

In fact the biggest winning countries in the Northern Hemisphere will probably be Canada, Greenland, and  Russia.

I imagine once Antarctica starts thawing, it will be carved up as well.

We are already making some strides to mitigate climate change. It's not enough, but with awareness, we may start to see a lot more progress. New technologies are being created at a record pace. Portable nuclear electrical generating stations. Solar, Wind and Hydro generation going mainstream, with new power storage batteries being developed to handle the down side of renewables. Electric Vehicles becoming cheaper with longer range between charges. Charging technologies that reduce the charging time. Agriculture innovations that produce a greater yield. 

There is a lot to be done, not much time to do it in, but it is possible.