Jose E. Gutierrez
Research Economist, Banco de España
Contact Information
josee.gutierrez@bde.esI am a Research Economist at the Financial Stability and Macroprudential Policy Department of Banco de España.
I received my Ph.D. in Economics from CEMFI.
My research interests are in Microeconomics and Finance, with a particular interest in banking-related topics.
Before starting my PhD, I worked for six years at the Superintendence of Banking, Insurance, and Private Pension Funds Administrators (SBS), the supervisor of the Peruvian financial system.
"Regulating Credit Lines in the Presence of Fire-Sale Externalities"
[Revise & Resubmit at the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking]
Presented at the 2020 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society; the 37th meeting of the European Economic Association and the 74th European meeting of the Econometric Society; the 2022 Annual Meeting of the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association and the Latin American Meeting of the Econometric Society; the 2023 International Conference in Finance, Banking and Accounting; the 2023 EBA Policy Research Workshop; SAEe.
Winner of the 2018 CEMFI Best Third-Year Paper.
Banco de España Working Paper No. 2323 Featured in SUERF Policy Brief No. 719 [Slides]
A previous version of the paper was circulated with the title "Optimal Regulation of Credit Lines."
This paper presents a contract-theoretic model in which banks choose pre-arranged and ex-post funding to finance firms' liquidity needs through credit lines. In states with high liquidity needs, pre-arranged funding is key to sustaining lending and reducing the number of liquidated firms. Yet, in the presence of a pecuniary externality on firms' liquidation values, competitive banks choose insufficient pre-funding compared to a constrained social planner. Constrained efficiency can be restored using regulatory liquidity ratios. The optimal regulatory ratio depends on the frequency of high liquidity need states, the value lost after a firm liquidation, and the premium on pre-funding.
Presented at the 2023 International Conference in Finance, Banking and Accounting; 5th conference on Contemporary Issues in Banking; World Finance Banking Symposium; ECB Banking Supervision Research Conference; 2024 FMA European Conference; EFMA 2024; Foro de Finanzas 2024; EEA-ESEM 2024; World Finance Banking Symposium; 2024 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society; 23rd Annual Conference of the Hellenic Finance and Accounting Association; Banco de España-CEMFI 5th Conference on Financial Stability.
Finalist of the EFMA 2024 Capital Market Award.
A previous version of the paper was circulated with the title "Unloading NPLs, unlocking credit? Evidence from the ECB provisioning guidelines."
This paper studies the impact of supervisory expectations regarding non-performing loans (NPLs) on banks' NPL disposal and lending behavior as well as on the real economy. Using the supervisory intervention announced by the European Central Bank in 2018q1 as a quasi-natural experiment, we show that banks disposed of old NPLs at a higher rate after the policy. Furthermore, banks that were more heavily exposed to the policy tightened their lending standards, especially for risky firms. We also find that firms borrowing from banks affected by the policy intervention experienced a decline in the growth rate of their total assets, investment, employment, and sales. Our results highlight the importance of timely recognition of NPLs as a factor that can affect credit allocation. We also shed light on the importance of strong bank fundamentals in cleansing banks' balance sheets without disrupting credit intermediation.
Presented at the Bank of Spain, European Financial Management Association 2024 Annual Meeting; Foro de Finanzas 2024; Wolpertinger 2024 Annual Conference; 2025 World Congress of the Econometric Society.
Winner of the Best Paper on Banking at the 31st AEFIN Finance Forum.
This paper analyzes how lending relationships affect the incentives of borrowers to default using loan-level data in Spain. We provide new evidence showing that firms first default on loans from non-main banks. This effect is stronger in small firms and the lower the bank solvency. Our results suggest that firms have lower incentives to default to their most important banks to preserve the most valuable lending relationships. Our findings also indicate that banks internalize this borrower behavior in their credit risk management because most important banks recognize lower discretionary loan impairments. The results are robust to alternative specifications and control for potential bank forbearance, loan characteristics, and a variety of time-varying fixed effects.
[Revision requested at the Journal of Financial Intermediation]
Presented at the Bank of Spain; Bank of International Settlements; ECB-University of Glasgow-IBRN "Financial Stability and Regulation" Workshop; 13th EFI Research Network Workshop; 2025 International Conference in Financial Science; Foro de Finanzas 2025; Deutsche Bundesbank-IWH-CEPR "The Future of Banking: Risk Management, Governance, and Innovation in a Regulated World" (scheduled); 9th Annual Workshop of the ESCB Research Cluster 3 (scheduled).
This paper investigates the impact on credit supply resulting from the first sale of business bank resolution conducted under the new post-Global Financial Crisis frameworks. Our findings reveal that this resolution adversely affected credit supply of the acquiring bank, albeit unevenly across borrowers. The acquiring bank protected the credit supply to borrowers inherited from the failed bank, compensating for this by reducing credit to its less important customers and those facing high switching costs. Our results highlight the potential benefits of the sale-of-business tool in managing a bank failure without causing significant disruption to credit intermediation, provided that the acquirer is well-capitalized and its business strategy aims to maintain the acquired franchise.
Presented at the Bank of Spain, Czech National Bank Workshop on Financial Stability and Macroprudential Policy, the 8th Rome Junior Finance Conference; Spring 2025-4NCB Meeting, Banca d'Italia; Foro de Finanzas 2025.
We exploit a one-time, unexpected increase in loan provisions in Spain to estimate the cross-border real effects of macroprudential policies through international trade linkages. Using comprehensive data from the Spanish credit register matched with customs records from 2009 to 2013, we find that Spanish importers and exporters relying on banks most affected by the policy faced significant reductions in credit supply. These firms subsequently experienced a substantial contraction in trade flows. Leveraging bilateral trade data at the country and product level, we further show that overall Spanish imports decreased following the policy, which indicates limited trade reallocation across domestic firms. Moreover, the decline in Spain's import demand led to a contraction in the total exports of Spain's main trading partners. Our paper documents a novel international trade channel through which macroprudential policies can have real effects on foreign countries.
Presented at the CEPR-ECB-Review of Finance-Bocconi University "The Future of Payments: CBDC, Digital Assets and Digital Capital Markets" (scheduled).
Instructor
Mathematics for Economists
Universidad del Pacífico (Lima - Peru), 2012 - 2015Contents: Vector spaces, matrices, topological spaces, static optimization techniques, difference equations and phase diagrams, differential equations, and dynamic optimization. [Syllabus]Graduate-level courses
Mathematics
SBS's Extension Program, Superintendence of Banks, Insurance Companies, and Private Pension Funds (Lima - Peru), 2013 - 2014Teaching Assistant
Graduate-level courses
Fundamentals of Advanced Econometrics
TA to Prof. Pablo Lavado, Pacifico Business School (Lima - Peru), Summer 2014Undergraduate-level courses
Mathematics III and IV, Microeconomics I and II, Econometrics I and II
Universidad del Pacífico (Lima - Peru), 2009 - 2011