Jose E. Gutierrez

Research Economist, Banco de España

Contact Information

josee.gutierrez@bde.es
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About me

I am a Research Economist at the Financial Stability and Macroprudential Policy Department of Banco de España.

I received my Ph.D. in Economics from CEMFI.

My research interests are in Microeconomics and Finance, with a particular interest in banking-related topics. 

Research

Working Papers

Optimal Regulation of Credit Lines

Banco de España Working Paper No. 2323 [Download] [Slides]

Featured in SUERF Policy Brief No. 719 


Presented at the 2020 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society; the 37th meeting of the European Economic Association and the 74th European meeting of the Econometric Society; the 2022 Annual Meeting of the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association and the Latin American Meeting of the Econometric Society; the 2023 International Conference in Finance, Banking and Accounting; the 2023 EBA Policy Research Workshop; SAEe.

This paper presents a contract-theoretic model in which banks choose pre-arranged and ex-post funding to finance firms' liquidity needs through credit lines. In states with high liquidity needs, pre-arranged funding is key to sustaining lending and reducing the number of liquidated firms. Yet, in the presence of a pecuniary externality on firms' liquidation values, competitive banks choose insufficient pre-funding compared to a constrained social planner. Constrained efficiency can be restored using regulatory liquidity ratios. The optimal regulatory ratio depends on the frequency of high liquidity need states, the value lost after a firm liquidation, and the premium on pre-funding. 

Stress tests, information disclosure, and credit line runs

with Luis Fernandez Lafuerza.

Revision requested

Banco de España Working Paper No. 2245 [Download]

Featured in Banco de España Research Update, Spring-Summer 2023, p. 17-18


Presented at the IFABS 2021 Oxford Conference; the VII Madrid-Barcelona Workshop on Banking and Corporate Finance; the 2022 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society; the 2023 Federal Reserve Stress Testing Research Conference.

Stress testing of banks is a tool widely used by supervisory authorities. The public disclosure of bank-level results provides valuable information to market participants, but it can entail adverse consequences for under-performing entities. We uncover a novel cost of disclosing stress test results in the form of credit line runs. Using the Spanish Credit Register and the 2011 stress test of the European Banking Authority, we find that, following the release of the results, firms drew down approximately 10 pp more available funds from lines granted by banks with a worse performance in the stress test. Moreover, before the release date, worse-performing banks reduced more the size of credit lines, and those underperformers with higher credit line balances were also more likely to cut term lending ex-post. 

Non-performing loan cleansing and bank supervision 

with Soner Baskaya, Jose-Maria Serena, and Serafeim Tsoukas.


Presented at the 2023 International Conference in Finance, Banking and Accounting; 5th conference on Contemporary Issues in Banking; World Finance Banking Symposium; ECB Banking Supervision Research Conference (scheduled); 2024 FMA European Conference (scheduled); EFMA 2024 (scheduled); Foro de Finanzas 2024 (scheduled); EEA-ESEM 2024 (scheduled).

This paper studies the impact of supervisory expectations regarding non-performing loans (NPLs) on banks' NPL disposal and lending behavior as well as on the real economy. Using the supervisory intervention announced by the European Central Bank in 2018q1 as a quasi-natural experiment, we show that banks disposed of old NPLs at a higher rate after the policy. Furthermore, banks that were more heavily exposed to the policy tightened their lending standards, especially for risky firms. We also find that firms borrowing from banks affected by the policy intervention experienced a decline in the growth rate of their total assets, investment, employment, and sales. Our results highlight the importance of timely recognition of NPLs as a factor that can affect credit allocation. We also shed light on the importance of strong bank fundamentals in cleansing banks' balance sheets without disrupting credit intermediation.

Shadow seniority? Lending relationships and borrowers’ selective default

with Francisco Gonzalez and Jose-Maria Serena.


Presented at EFMA 2024 (scheduled); Foro de Finanzas 2024 (scheduled).

This paper analyzes how lending relationships affect the incentives of borrowers to default using loan-level data in Spain. We provide new evidence showing that firms first default on loans from non-main banks. This effect is stronger in small firms and the lower the bank solvency. Our results suggest that firms have lower incentives to default to their most important banks to preserve the most valuable lending relationships. Our findings also indicate that banks internalize this borrower behavior in their credit risk management because most important banks recognize lower discretionary loan impairments. The results are robust to alternative specifications and control for potential bank forbearance, loan characteristics, and a variety of time-varying fixed effects.


Bridging the gap? FinTech and financial inclusion [Download]

with Josep Gisbert.

The rise of FinTech lenders offers an opportunity to promote financial access but may disrupt banks' banking efforts. This paper presents a banking model where an incumbent bank specializes in some niche markets. When FinTech enters, it intensifies competition for certain niches, reducing the bank's lending relationship gains. Although FinTech serves some unattended niches, the bank may abandon others, creating an ambiguous impact on financial inclusion. The overall effect depends on the initial level of financial inclusion and on FinTech's efficiency and competitiveness.


Publication

Regional inflation dynamic and inflation targeting: The case of Peru. [Download]

with D. Winkelried. Journal of Applied Economics, Volume 18, Issue 2, November 2015, Pages 199-224.

Work in Progress

On the quest for cyclical-robust loss-absorbing regulatory capital ratios

Policy Work

Indicadores alternativos de riesgo de crédito en el Perú: matrices de transición crediticia condicionadas al ciclo económico. [Download]

with C. Aparicio, M. Jaramillo, and H. Moreno. Revista de Temas Financieros. SBS, volume IX, 2013. 

Dínamica inflacionaria regional y el esquema de metas de inflación en el Perú [Download]

with D. Winkelried. Revista Estudios Económicos. BCRP, volume 24, pages 79-98, 2012. 

Teaching

Instructor

Undergraduate-level courses

Mathematics for Economists

Universidad del Pacífico (Lima - Peru), 2012 - 2015Contents: Vector spaces, matrices, topological spaces, static optimization techniques, difference equations and phase diagrams, differential equations, and dynamic optimization. [Syllabus] 

Graduate-level courses

Mathematics

SBS's Extension Program, Superintendence of Banks, Insurance Companies, and Private Pension Funds (Lima - Peru), 2013 - 2014

Teaching Assistant

Graduate-level courses

Econometrics

TA to Prof. Manuel Arellano, CEMFI (Madrid - Spain), Winter 2018

Fundamentals of Advanced Econometrics

TA to Prof. Pablo Lavado, Pacifico Business School (Lima - Peru), Summer 2014

Advanced Econometrics

TA to Prof. Pablo Lavado, SBS's Extension Program (Lima - Peru), Summer 2013

Undergraduate-level courses

Mathematics III and IV, Microeconomics I and II, Econometrics I and II

Universidad del Pacífico (Lima - Peru), 2009 - 2011