Welcome to my website!
Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere -- Albert Einstein
Embedded Files
I am Jamiu Olamilekan Badmus. I am deeply curious about how policy-relevant research shapes evidence-based decision-making. My research interests lie at the intersection of international trade, trade policy analysis, geoeconomics, and development economics using quantitative methods and causal inference. I am a Research Intern at the United Nations University Institute on Comparative Regional Integration Studies (UNU-CRIS) in Bruges, Belgium, working under the supervision of Professor Glenn Rayp on an empirical project that examines the structural interaction between trade and foreign direct investment within the framework of structural gravity.
I am a graduate of the Erasmus Mundus Master’s in Economics of Globalization and European Integration (EGEI), funded by the European Commission. In my master’s dissertation, I conducted an ex-ante evaluation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) using a structural gravity framework to quantify the agreement’s potential impact on trade and welfare at the sector and industry level.
I am currently completing a predoctoral Certificate Program in Economic Theory, Econometrics, and Mathematical Economics (CETEME) at the BAUM Tenpers Research Institute in Arlington, Virginia, where I am strengthening my proof-based mathematical and statistical skills for advanced structural and causal modeling applications in economic theory and econometrics in preparation for admission into a PhD program in Economics by Fall 2026.
Working Paper Update!
This is an excerpt of my Erasmus Mundus Master’s in Economics of Globalization and European Integration dissertation with the same title.
This is an excerpt of my Erasmus Mundus Master’s in Economics of Globalization and European Integration dissertation with the same title.
[pdf] [Replication files]
Abstract
Since the announcement that trading was to commence under the AfCFTA agreement on 1 January 2021, full trading has been delayed due to challenges in finalizing tariff concessions and Rules of Origin requirements. In anticipation of the full commencement of trading under the agreement, numerous studies have emerged, primarily focusing on simulating tariff-based scenarios. The focus of these studies only captures observable trade barriers, neglecting the substantial unobservable frictions that affect cross-border exchange in Africa. Motivated by this limitation, I examine the ex-ante impact of the AfCFTA by employing bilateral border indicators within a structural gravity framework to examine how the elimination of the intra-AfCFTA border wedge would influence trade and welfare. I find evidence of substantial but heterogeneous potential trade creation and welfare gains across sectors, industries, and countries. Specifically, the partial equilibrium estimates suggest that sectors and industries currently facing higher border frictions are likely to realize disproportionately larger trade gains, ranging from 17% for mining and energy to 42% for services at the sectoral level and from 6% up to 115% at the industry level, following the full implementation of the AfCFTA agreement. The border-based general equilibrium welfare estimates demonstrate significant heterogeneity, with services showing the largest gains (up to 250%), followed by mining and energy (up to 158%), agriculture (up to 93%), and manufacturing experiencing the smallest gains (up to 57%). This border-based experiment is best interpreted as an upper-bound scenario that captures the long-run potential of continental integration under deep and effective implementation of the AfCFTA agreement. These findings provide a compelling economic case for expediting and prioritizing the full implementation of the AfCFTA despite current challenges, as doing so could substantially advance Africa’s economic development and integration objectives outlined in Agenda 2063.
Data & Code
Overview
This repository provides a complete R implementation of the General Equilibrium Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (GEPPML) methodology developed by Anderson, J. E., Larch, M., & Yotov, Y. V. (2018). GEPPML: General equilibrium analysis with PPML. The World Economy, 41(10), 2750-2782.
Page updated
Google Sites
Report abuse